1/OK, let's talk about how long shutdowns and shelter-in-place orders need to last.
Trump says he wants things open by Easter. That's a pipe dream. In fact, we need to keep things closed AT LEAST two weeks longer than that. Let me explain why.
Trump says he wants things open by Easter. That's a pipe dream. In fact, we need to keep things closed AT LEAST two weeks longer than that. Let me explain why.
2/Assume that shutdowns start reducing new infections IMMEDIATELY, the day after they go into effect.
It will still be 4-5 days before the daily INCREASE in the number of people with SYMPTOMS starts to go down, because that's the virus' incubation period.
It will still be 4-5 days before the daily INCREASE in the number of people with SYMPTOMS starts to go down, because that's the virus' incubation period.
3/After people develop symptoms, it takes several days for their case to be confirmed. This is because it takes a while to get tested and get the results back.
So under OPTIMAL conditions, it will take maybe 2 weeks to see new daily confirmed cases start to drop.
So under OPTIMAL conditions, it will take maybe 2 weeks to see new daily confirmed cases start to drop.
4/There is some indication that Italy may be on a similar timeline now.
5/So in about 2 weeks, under OPTIMAL conditions, lockdowns reduce NEW daily infections to a low-ish level.
BUT, we won't know they're at a low level for maybe 3 more weeks after that!
So, 5 weeks.
BUT, we won't know they're at a low level for maybe 3 more weeks after that!
So, 5 weeks.
6/Why do we need to wait until we KNOW that new daily infections are at a low level?
Because our half-assed shutdowns might not be as effective as China's strict lockdowns. Even shelter-in-place orders might not be as effective. We just don't know.
Because our half-assed shutdowns might not be as effective as China's strict lockdowns. Even shelter-in-place orders might not be as effective. We just don't know.
7/If our half-assed shutdowns are much less effective than China's and Italy's lockdowns, many areas will have to remain shut down - with strict shelter-in-place orders - for much LONGER than 5 weeks.
Remember, the slower you act, the longer the pain.
Remember, the slower you act, the longer the pain.
8/ALSO, remember that we can't even come out of shutdown until we have a robust #TestAndTrace system in place to squelch new outbreaks.
Otherwise the virus will come roaring back and we will be RIGHT BACK IN SHUTDOWN for more weeks or months!!
cnn.com/2020/03/20/hea…
Otherwise the virus will come roaring back and we will be RIGHT BACK IN SHUTDOWN for more weeks or months!!
cnn.com/2020/03/20/hea…
9/So the MOST OPTIMISTIC forecast for when we can safely leave shutdown is 5 weeks.
As this list by @ReasonInterest will show you, shutdowns began starting in earnest only a few days ago.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
As this list by @ReasonInterest will show you, shutdowns began starting in earnest only a few days ago.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
10/So two weeks AFTER Easter is the EARLIEST we will be able to start leaving shutdown, and ONLY if we get #TestAndTrace in place by then.
This is not going to be over in two weeks, people. Not even close.
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This is not going to be over in two weeks, people. Not even close.
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