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A modest increase in testing today.

We're up to ~57% of Korean levels, and the growth rate has slowed down. Unclear if we'll actually catch Korea, given shortages of equipment and supplies.

Still, a lot better than the travesty of two weeks ago.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Remember, to do #TestAndTrace, we'll need to SUSTAIN testing at very high levels for months and months.

To do that, we need a continuous, neverending supply chain for masks, reagents, extraction kits, swabs, face shields, gowns, etc.

One bright spot in today's data: CA didn't report any tests. Since it's impossible that they did 0 tests, what this means is that they didn't report today, and we can expect a bump next time they do.
Update: Intuition confirmed.

CA just reported with a monster update: over 39,000 tests in the past day!

That will pump up tomorrow's numbers for sure.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Most of those tests are pending, though. Looks like CA just started to report pending tests (which few states do). Seems that the big increase we see tomorrow will be largely from that reporting change...
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#TestAndTrace

More from @Noahpinion see all

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We need #TestAndTrace 🐇
@Noahpinion
Of the confirmed cases (now 85.6k in the U.S.), how many are likely to die?

Perhaps 1.8% to 3.4% if ICUs aren't overwhelmed. But perhaps 4.9% to 11.2% if ICUs become unavailable.

And unless you're a teenager or younger, this thing can easily kill you.

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
So of the ~82,500 U.S. confirmed cases still active right now, perhaps 1500 to 9200 peoole can be expected to die, depending on how much hospital capacity we have.

worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…
And that's just of the cases today. Over the past week it multiplied by 6. And it sure doesn't look like it's slowing down.
Read 6 tweets
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We need #TestAndTrace 🐇
@Noahpinion
Well, folks, some good news. Official U.S. daily coronavirus testing just hit 146k a day. Unfortunately, 45k of those are basically fake - the result of a one-time increase in reporting of pending tests. But that still means we're doing over 100k a day!!

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Even excluding the "fake" bump from pending test reporting, we're now at around South Korean levels of daily testing.

Now, we have a huge backlog of cases to find, and our outbreak is much larger than Korea's, so we won't start being able to do #TestAndTrace just yet...
But, if we can SUSTAIN this high rate of testing -- and that's a big if! -- then we can do #TestAndTrace in a few weeks after lockdowns have reduced the caseload and shrunk social circles.
Read 3 tweets
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We need #TestAndTrace 🐇
@Noahpinion
The number of right-wingers telling their own voters to go die for the economy is just honestly astonishing
Left-wingers: OK Boomer

Right-wingers: OK Boomer, saddle up, it's time to die for the Dow
Boomers, your parents' generation sacrificed half a million lives to defeat fascism.

Now we're asking you to sacrifice half a million lives to...

*checks notes*

...preserve the passive income streams of Boomers richer than yourselves

thewrap.com/brit-hume-enti…
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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CSM
@usacsmret
Masks, Masks, Where Are the Masks? disq.us/t/3n71d9e
As the crisis grew the People’s Republic of China bought up the world’s supply of masks, at one point importing 20 million masks in 24 hours. American companies even eagerly donated masks. But why was the United States so unprepared for a run on masks before the pandemic arrived?
After Katrina, the Bush administration had set a goal of billions of masks in case of a major disaster. But that goal was never met. When the H1N1 swine flu outbreak arrived, we were badly unprepared.
Read 22 tweets
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Lyman Expand the House Stone, AKA 石來民
@lymanstoneky
So that @ft graph they update each day with growth of cases showing the US is super bad and all

That graph can be hard to understand.

I think this graph is better:
First, the big difference.

@ft presents "log of cases." This means that the line they show corresponds to a fixed percentage of growth.

But they ONLY care about the slope, not the fixed level for each country.
Actually, @JustinWolfers just had a nice thread explaining that ALL WE NEED TO KNOW is the slope.

But if what we need to know is the slope, then we should just *model the slope directly*!
Read 29 tweets
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Scammader Tyrant MBuhari
@GhenhisKhan
UNMASKING THE REAL @MBuhari

Let us start with the scandal of the N2.8 billion NNPC money that got stolen under his watch as Petroleum Minister and head of NNPC in 1978? Let’s bear in mind that the value of that money in hard currency at the time was more than $3 billion. Under
intense public pressure, the Shehu Shagari government, which shortly took over thereafter from the military, set up a Senate probe which traced the money to a London Midland Bank account belonging to @MBuhari from where the money again got missing. No less than a person of
the then Senate Majority Leader and Chairman of the Senate probe panel, Dr Olusola Saraki revealed this in an interview with Vera Ifudu of the Nigerian Television Authority (NTA). When Ifudu reported this, she was clandestinely sacked by the NTA, but the lady went to court and
Read 258 tweets
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Am.Dr.Khe
@congoboy
I am more pissed off at this premise from the audience (a teacher!) than with #BernieSanders' response
"Human population growth has more than doubled in the past 50 years. The planet cannot sustain this growth."
washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/…
Of course the population has grown! But,
a. #sustainability in the context of #ClimateChange is NOT about sheer numbers of people
b. the growth rate has slowed down. A LOT!
Therefore, discussing #abortion is awful in this context
Take the important #abortion question (pro or anti) to some other context of the human condition. Don't thread that with population growth and sustainability
Do people even care about evidence anymore?
ourworldindata.org/future-populat… @OurWorldinData
Read 7 tweets
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Mudakun - obscure blogger, not an influencer
@Mudakuntweets
I need to motivate and write sumthin for my blog but everything is either too "big and messy" or "feels not worth the effort now"

Until I got this idea to play with FANDOM TERMINOLOGY SHITFIGHTS
and the current anime season's take on guys hangin' out in a band;
GIVEN

=>2
(Oh snap! Muddy-kun is gonna frick this one up in classic gettit-wrong fashion)

No..wait... Have been watching it on a certain "grey" aggregator site, fun to read comments too.

Of course commenters are all sloppy with terms: "GAY" "Yaoi" "shonen-ai".
=>3
By ep5 all I can guess is that one chara has a man-crush and another, a roomie. Read in what you will -- or am I erasing? Or am I reluctant to be trolled by the writers?

Besides the point. What we got here is an almost genre-perfect take on a "guys friendships" story.
=>4
Read 63 tweets
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Paul Schmehl
@PaulSchmehl
I’m starting a thread to document things I find in the FISA warrants that were just released. These will be in the form of observations I make as I work my way through it. First of all, the 412 pages includes all four warrants and the associated documentation.
Secondly, the first thing that stands out to me is that the FBI perjured themselves in the application for the warrant. Why do I say this? Because it includes this.
“(U)(S) Carter W.Page
jknowingly engage in
b3-l
b7A-l
b7E- 1, 2
clandestine intelligence activities (other than intelligence gathering activities) for
or on behalf of such foreign power, which activities involve or are about to
Read 75 tweets

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