I asked leaders @CDC @WHO & @jeremyfarrar how badly coronavirus is spreading under the radar in cities around the world. Spoiler: It’s bad. Here’s how they get a handle on community transmission when many people aren’t tested & how to lessen disaster. nature.com/articles/d4158…
Epidemiologists have a few tricks for making ballpark estimates – important when true case # is unknown. Because estimate is uncertain, they look at several lines of evidence & see if results align. These models assess death tolls, genome sequences, travel routes & much more.
It's not too late for containment, said CDC, WHO & Farrar. It's critical to help #flattenthecurve & mitigate disaster. Contact tracing is hard but critical because it buys time to prepare hospitals, to think about the consequences of closing schools, etc.
"While we are seeing a decline in cases across Asia, the big worry now is Europe,” said @mvankerkhove @WHO. “We know that with more aggressive containment, countries can hit a turning point. But in some countries, it will get worse before it gets better.”
“Right now, we need to do anything that buys us one week, two weeks; anything to delay will have a dramatic impact,” says @JeremyFarrar. For a warning see Italy, where intensive care units will be at maximum capacity at the end of next week if current rate of infection continues.
