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The disease progresses before it kills someone.
Because of that I find it surprising that both the number of confirmed cases and deaths stopped increasing at the same time in Italy.

It’s not that our source (the ECDC) did a mistake, I checked against Italy’s health ministry.
The same is reported in the very well documented Wikipedia data on COID-19 in Italy.

The peak day for reporting of new confirmed deaths and cases was 4 days ago.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro…
Here is our chart and data (you can switch to any country you are interested in): ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-…
If this article is true it would suggest that my suspicion from some days ago might be true
corriere.it/politica/20_ma…
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Max Roser
@MaxCRoser
Some were surprised to hear that it is (and always has been) difficult for us to find funding to build OurWorldInData.org.

👇 I want to explain the situation in a short thread.
First, I don’t want to overdramatize.
We love what we do and would do this work without pay (I know this because in the past we did).

And we do have funding. Here we list every grant we ever received and the many, many of you who donated to us: ourworldindata.org/supporters
But it is true that with more funding we could offer longer-term security to us in the team and we could do much more.

(Over the last year we did our work as a team of 3.5 researchers and 2 developers.)
Read 18 tweets
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Max Roser
@MaxCRoser
This was terrible reporting by the FT.

And their clickbait headline is worse since the article is behind a paywall.

It essentially takes an assumption of a research paper and suggested that it was what the research concluded.

Here is the actual research dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9…
The FT subtitle said "New epidemiological model suggests the vast majority of people suffer little or no illness."

No, that's not what this research suggests. Here is the first sentence from the results section of the paper.
Fortunately for all of us there are great researchers that take time out of their busy days to correct the claims of poor reporting.

Here is a thread by prof of biostatistics, @nataliexdean:


And here by biology prof @CT_Bergstrom:
Read 5 tweets
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Max Roser
@MaxCRoser
I don’t see this discussed much, but this strong correlation makes me ask a lot of question about this pandemic.

This is the correlation between GDP per capita and confirmed COVID cases (per million people).

Confirmed cases, of course, are only a fraction of all cases.
And as it is of course relevant, this is the correlation between the number of total tests (again per million people) and GDP per capita.

[Our latest data on testing can be found here: ourworldindata.org/covid-testing]
And then this is the correlation between deaths (again per million) and GDP per capita.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Joshua Wong 黃之鋒 😷
@joshuawongcf
1.1/ China's empathy with #Italy is political hypocrisy since the face mask diplomacy is just part of China's Overseas Propaganda campaign, which includes rewriting history, obscuring the source of the virus, painting China as a global hero by delivering medical aids abroad.
1.2/ More importantly, praising the superiority of China over the western liberal democracies. This narrative is tightly connected to President Xi Jinping's personality cult, as his authority has been deeply challenged since the outbreak.
1.3/ To retain his reputation and erase China's bad image, state-run media in China have been projecting China as the global hero with extreme nationalist colour in the past few weeks. Therefore, helping Italy is just part of a bigger plan.
Read 15 tweets
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Tokyo #VoteByMail
@DHStokyo
Okay. In response to my tweet about why we should be boycotting Trump's daily pressers about #Covid_19, I'm getting the question, "Where should I go instead to stay informed?"

I'll start, but I'd love to hear from you all. Let's help redirect folks to GOOD sources.
Need to have the latest number of confirmed cases and deaths in the U.S. or around the world? The best source is Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center:
coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

You can also sign up for daily email updates from them.
Johns Hopkins also put together this helpful Twitter list of various experts. Subscribe to it here:
twitter.com/i/lists/123565…

Also, if you're new to lists and aren't sure how they work, DM me. Happy to walk you through them.
Read 9 tweets
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Alex Collie
@axcollie
COVID-19 is causing 2 (not 1) public health crises, and what we can do about the 2nd one (thread)...

The number of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 is shocking and the growth rate is alarming.

But its clear now there is a 2nd global public health crisis developing.
The first crises - the COVID-19 pandemic. Caused by an infectious respiratory disease that is passed from person-to-person.

The second crises - the response to COVID-19 pandemic. Caused by changing the conditions in which we work, live & (the social determinants of health)
These two crises are inherently linked, yet the differences between them are stark.

COVID-19 results in physical illness that is apparent over a course of days or weeks. Its effects on health are direct. It can be measured. There is currently no vaccine.
Read 11 tweets
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Rohit Ramchandani
@DrRramchandani
Growth rate is key during a disease outbreak. The rate of growth in the the total confirmed #cases in #Canada seems to be showing signs of slowing and pulling away from the continued steep trend line seen, for example, in the United States (Green). #COVID19 #coronavirus 1/25
This is a +ve sign, but still very early to tell, esp. with an est. 1M+ #Canadians having just returned from travel, and #COVID-19 #testing only targeting >severe cases (due to rationing & backlog in lab testing), we don’t have a good grasp on the level of community spread. 2/25
The number of total cases is what we want to know, but the true number of these is not known. Not by us epidemiologists, nor by any other research, governmental or reporting institution. 3/25
Read 25 tweets
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Arab News
@arabnews
#BREAKING: Kuwait announces new coronavirus case, bringing total to 62 arab.news/64475
#BREAKING: Bahrain says its Formula One race this month will be for ‘participants only’ without spectators over #coronavirus fears arab.news/64475
Bahrain’s Crown Prince @PrinceSalmanbi3 says the decision to close this month’s Bahrain Formula One race to the public was ‘to preserve the safety of citizens, residents and racing fans,’ as #coronavirus #COVID_19 continues to spread arab.news/m7a46
Read 33 tweets
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Eddie Du
@Edourdoo
As coronavirus slams #Italy, paralysis and anxiety spread - Reuters reuters.com/article/us-chi…
As the economic shocks reverberate across Europe, Italians are still trying to get to grips with how a seemingly isolated case could balloon within days, to bring the eurozone's third-largest economy to the brink of recession.
Lombardy, the region around Italy's financial capital, Milan, is one of the richest and most productive in Europe.

Along with Veneto, the other main area hit by the coronavirus outbreak, it generates around a third of Italy's economic output.
Read 29 tweets

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