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NEW: Thursday 26 March update of coronavirus mortality trajectories tracker

• US death toll curve has passed China’s at same stage ⚠️
• UK on same track as Italy
• We‘re stripping this chart down to highlight major countries

Live version FREE TO READ: ft.com/content/a26fbf…
This means we’re showing other countries’ death toll trajectories in a grid of "small multiples", as with cases.

• Lots of talk about Germany’s low fatality rates, but its death toll curve is tracking Italy’s
• Turkey is cause for concern

All charts: ft.com/content/a26fbf…
Now onto death toll trajectories in subnational regions:
• New York still has the most dead at this stage out of any region in the world
• Situation in Catalonia, Madrid and Paris (Ile-de-France) also notably bad

All charts: ft.com/content/a26fbf…
Latest case trajectories for major countries:

• US has far more confirmed cases than any other country at the same stage
• Cases edging back up in HK & Singapore as concerns grow that outbreak hasn’t been contained

• Read about flattening the curve: ft.com/content/e015e0…
This chart now shows ALL countries with several days of data over 100 confirmed cases, so you can compare case trajectories in the US to the UAE or China to Chile. 70 countries shown.

Live versions of all charts here: ft.com/content/a26fbf…
Here's my explainer on why we're using log scales:
And why we're showing absolute numbers rather than population-adjusted rates:
Please email (don’t DM) john.burn-murdoch@ft.com with feedback, comments, requests and subnational data.

All of these are invaluable, and we continue to incorporate your suggestions and data every day.

I’ll keep getting back to as many people as possible.

Stay safe, everyone!
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John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
NEW: Thurs 2 April update of coronavirus trajectories

First, daily new cases
• American exceptionalism. More than 20k new cases per day, each day more than the last
• Spain & Italy both seeing fewer new cases
• Japan’s outbreak continues

Live charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…
How does that look on the old cumulative chart?

• Globally we’ve now passed 1m confirmed cases. Almost 25% are in the US
• Fauci reckons US alone could easily pass 1m
• No signs yet of US curve flattening

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…
Now daily new deaths:

• US & UK are straight lines angling upwards on a log scale. This is not good.
• In both countries, over the last week every day brings ~25% more new deaths than the day before
• No other countries are on that steep a trajectory at this stage of outbreak
Read 13 tweets
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John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
NEW: in yesterday’s UK gov press conf, we heard UK road traffic had risen

We’ve been tracking this at @FinancialTimes for weeks using data from @TomTom, and it’s true:

Londoners are on the roads much more than people in many foreign cities

Live version: ft.com/content/0c1375…
London is supposedly under a lockdown like those in Paris, Madrid & New York, yet people are still out on the roads in relatively large numbers.

London traffic levels are down significantly on business-as-usual, but still notably higher than in peer cities across Europe and US.
You can visit this page every day to see our latest data & chats on alternative indicators of lockdowns, including road traffic, air pollution, box office revenues and our bespoke China Economic Activity Index that tracks China’s emergence from lockdown ft.com/content/0c1375…
Read 3 tweets
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John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
My brilliant colleagues @C_BruceLockhart and @BobHaslett illustrate some important points here:

• There are major doubts over the Chinese numbers
• But there’s less doubting the general pattern — largely containing the outbreak in one region
• US singularly failed to do this
Let’s take a guess and say the Chinese death toll is over 10,000 rather than the 3,000 quoted. That’s still an order of magnitude lower than forecast US death toll of 100k-200k, and the reason will be that China did largely contain this to Wuhan/Hubei.
Plenty of reason to doubt exactly how many died in China, but we know China aggressively surveils and quarantines.

Movements of people who’ve been in Hubei are monitored and restricted, and some reports say when they enter other provinces they’re immediately detected & tested.
Read 6 tweets

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