Thread by @elleprovocateur

#Storytelling.

Tonight I'm going to share highlights from the 2010 "Scenarios for the Future of Technology & Int'l Development" report produced by The Rockefeller Foundation & Global Business Network. Not just the "Lock Step" scenario, but all 4 scenarios. [54 page report]

Following Event 201 (Oct 18 2019), we must concede that the ruling class has been gifted with phenomenal and prophetic intuitions & insights. (They truly are the chosen ones.) Thus it is worthwhile, even mandatory, to study their scenario exercises & simulations.

"We believe that scenario planning has great potential for use in philanthropy to identify unique interventions... scenario planning allows us to achieve impact more effectively." [p 4]

"The results of our first scenario planning exercise demonstrate a provocative and engaging exploration of the role of technology and the future of globalization." [p 4]

"This report is crucial reading for anyone interested in creatively considering the multiple, divergent ways in which our world could evolve." [p 4]

"*I hope this publication makes clear exactly why my colleagues and I are so excited about the promise of using scenario planning to develop robust strategies."

[*Judith Rodin, President of the Rockefeller Foundation]

"I offer a special thanks to Peter Schwartz, Andrew Blau, and the entire team at Global Business Network, who have helped guide us through this stimulating and energizing process." [p 4]

Peter Schwartz is an American futurist, innovator & co-founder of the Global Business Network, a corporate strategy firm, specializing in future-think & scenario planning. As of Oct. 2011, he has served as Senior Vice President Strategic Planning for #Salesforce.

Video: Peter Schwartz, Salesforce "welcomes Klaus Schwab, #WorldEconomicForum Executive Chairman and Founder, into the Salesforce LIVE Studio for a chat about the future of global governance." [2014]

sfdc.hubs.vidyard.com/watch/lemzpqny…

weforum.org/people/peter-s…

Video:

sfdc.hubs.vidyard.com/watch/lemzpqny…

Andrew Blau: #Deloitte Risk & Financial Advisory managing director in the Risk Intelligence practice of Deloitte & Touche LLP; past strategy & innovation advisor to CEOs & senior executives around the world; founding president of the board of directors of #WITNESS.

Back to the report & fictional scenarios:

"Perhaps most importantly, scenarios give us a new, shared language that deepens our conversations about the future and how we can help to shape it." [p 7]

"How can we best position ourselves not just to identify technologies that improve the lives of poor communities but also to help scale and spread those that emerge?" [p 8]

"Each scenario tells a story of how the world, and in particular the developing world, might progress over the next 15 to 20 years,... Accompanying each scenario is a range of elements that aspire to further illuminate life, technology, and philanthropy in that world.' [p 17]

Scenario #1: LOCK STEP

"A world of tighter top-down government control and more
#authoritarian leadership, with limited innovation and growing citizen pushback.

In 2012, the #pandemic that the world had been anticipating for years finally hit."

"Unlike 2009's H1N1, this new #influenza strain — originating from wild geese — was extremely virulent & deadly. Even the most pandemic-prepared nations were quickly overwhelmed when the #virus streaked around the world, infecting nearly 20 percent of the global population..."

"The #pandemic also had a deadly effect on economies: international mobility of both people & goods screeched to a halt, debilitating industries like tourism... locally, normally bustling shops & office buildings sat empty for months, devoid of both employees & customers."

"But even in developed countries, containment was a
challenge. The United States's initial policy of "strongly discouraging" citizens from flying proved deadly in its leniency, accelerating the spread of the #virus not just within the U.S. but across borders." [p 18]

"...a few countries did fare better—#China in particular. The Chinese govt's quick imposition & enforcement of mandatory #quarantine for all citizens, as well
as its instant & near-hermetic sealing off of all borders, saved millions of lives, stopping the spread of the #virus..."

"During the #pandemic, national leaders around the world flexed their #authority and imposed airtight rules and #restrictions, from the mandatory wearing of face masks to body-temperature checks at the entries to communal spaces like train stations and supermarkets." [p 19]

"Even after the pandemic faded, this more #authoritarian control and oversight of citizens and their activities stuck and even intensified."

"In order to protect themselves from the spread of increasingly global problems — from #pandemics and transnational terrorism to #environmental crises and rising #poverty — leaders around the world took a firmer grip on #power." [p 19]

"At first, the notion of a more controlled world gained wide acceptance and approval. #Citizens willingly gave up some of their #sovereignty — and their #privacy — to more paternalistic states in exchange for greater safety and stability." [p 19]

"Citizens were more tolerant, and even eager, for top-down direction and oversight, and national leaders had more latitude to impose order in the ways they saw fit. In developed countries, this heightened oversight took many forms: #biometric IDs for all citizens, for example..."

No friends. Not Huxley, Orwell, Bradbury or Brunner. This is The Rockefeller Foundation. Stay with me.

"In many developed countries, enforced cooperation w/ a
suite of new regulations & agreements slowly but steadily restored both order &, importantly, economic #growth."

"By 2025, people seemed to be growing weary of so much top-down control and letting leaders and authorities make choices for them." [p 21]

"Sporadic pushback became increasingly organized and coordinated, as disaffected youth and people who had seen their status and opportunities slip away — largely in developing countries — incited civil unrest." [p 21]

HEADLINES IN LOCK STEP:

#Italy Addresses 'Immigrant Caregiver' Gap with #Robots (2017)

African Leaders Fear Repeat of #Nigeria's 2026 Government Collapse (2028)

[p 22]

"Technological innovation in “Lock Step” is largely driven by gov't & is focused on issues of national security & health & safety. Most technological improvements are created by & for developed countries, shaped by govts' dual desire to control and to #monitor their citizens."

"Technology trends and applications we might see:
#Scanners using advanced functional magnetic resonance imaging (#fMRI)technology become the norm at airports and other public areas to detect abnormal #behavior that may indicate "#antisocial intent."" [p 23]

LIFE IN LOCK STEP:

"Manisha gazed out on the Ganges #River, mesmerized by what she saw... no one could deny that the Ganges was looking more beautiful and healthier than ever." [p 25]

March 18, 2020, ABC News: "Venice canals are clear enough to see fish as coronavirus halts tourism in the city Swans have returned to the canals and dolphins have been spotted in the port."

"...cloudy canals have transformed into water crystal clear..."

abcnews.go.com/International/…

"Manisha was tempted to kick off her shoe and dip her toe in, but this was a restricted area now — and she, of all people, would never break that law."

[p 25]

Scenario #2: Clever Together

"In 2017, an international agreement was reached on carbon sequestration... intellectual & financial resources were pooled to build out carbon capture processes... A functioning global cap and trade system was also established."

[p 27]

#CCS

"Centralized #global oversight & #governance structures ...not just for energy use but also for disease & #technology standards... systems & structures required far greater levels f transparency, which in turn required more tech-enabled #data collection, processing, & feedback."

"Enormous, benign “sousveillance” systems allowed citizens to access data — all publically available — in real time and react."

"Nation-states lost some of their power and importance as #global #architecture strengthened and regional governance structures emerged. International oversight entities like the #UN took on new levels of #authority,..."

[p 27-28]

"The worldwide spirit of collaboration also fostered new alliances and alignments among corporations, NGOs, and communities."

[p 28]
#Together

"In many places, traditional social barriers to overcoming #poverty grew less relevant as more people gained access to a spectrum of useful technologies — from #disposable #computers to do-it-yourself (DIY) windmills."

[p 29]

"Over the course of two decades, enormous strides were made to make the world less wasteful, more efficient, and more inclusive. But the world was far from perfect. There were still failed states and places with few #resources."

[p 29]

"Indeed, demand for everything was growing #exponentially. By 2028, despite ongoing efforts to guide “smart growth,” it was becoming clear that the world could not support such rapid growth forever."

[p 29]

"There are considerable flows of talent between the for-profit and nonprofit sectors, and the lines between these types of organizations become increasingly blurred."

[p 30]

"Technology trends and applications we might see:

The cost of capturing #data through #nanosensors & smart networks falls precipitously... #Intelligent electricity, water distribution, and transportation systems develop in ... "#SmartCities"..."

[p 31]

"Flexible and rapid mobile #payment systems drive dynamic #economic #growth in the developing world, while the developed world is hampered by entrenched #banking interests and regulation."

"In cities and villages around the world where children used to be hungry, access to higher-calorie meals had produced alarming increases in the incidence of #obesity and #diabetes."

[p 33]

Scenario #3: HACK ATTACK

"An economically unstable and shock-prone world in which governments weaken, criminals thrive, and dangerous innovations emerge"

[p 34]

"Resource scarcities and trade disputes, together with severe #economic and #climate stresses, pushed many alliances and partnerships to the breaking point; they also sparked proxy wars and low-level conflict in #resource-rich parts of the developing world."

[p 35]

"Nations raised trade barriers in order to protect their domestic sectors against imports and — in the face of global food and resource shortages — to reduce exports of agricultural produce and other commodities."

[p 35]

"In the context of weak #health systems, corruption, and inattention to standards — either within countries or from global bodies like the World Health Organization — #tainted #vaccines entered the public health systems of several #African countries. [p 35]

#WHO

"In 2021, 600 children in Cote d’Ivoire died from a bogus #Hepatitis B #vaccine, which paled in comparison to the scandal sparked by mass deaths from a tainted anti-malarial drug years later.

[p 35]

"The deaths and resulting scandals sharply affected public confidence in #vaccine delivery; parents not just in #Africa but elsewhere began to avoid vaccinating their children, & it wasn’t long before infant and child #mortality rates rose to levels not seen since the 1970s."

"Meanwhile, more sophisticated #hackers attempted to take down corporations, government systems, and banks via phishing scams & database information heists, and their many successes generated billions of dollars in losses."

[p 36]

(Let's hope they are right about this one.)

"Blockbuster #pharmaceuticals quickly became artifacts of the past, replaced by increased production of generics.

[p 36]

"Interestingly, not all of the “hacking” was bad. Genetically modified crops (#GMOs) and do-it-yourself (DIY) #biotech became backyard and garage activities, producing important advances."

[p 37]

"In 2017, a network of renegade #African #scientists who had returned to their home countries after working in Western multinationals unveiled the first of a range of new #GMOs that boosted agricultural productivity on the continent."

[p 37]

"But despite such efforts, the global have/have-not gap grew wider than ever. The very #rich still had the financial means to protect themselves; #gated communities sprung up from New York to Lagos, providing safe havens surrounded by slums."

[p 37]

"In 2025, it was de rigueur to build not a house but a high-walled fortress, guarded by armed personnel."

[p 37]

"The #wealthy also capitalized on the loose regulatory environment to experiment with advanced #medical treatments and other under-the-radar activities."

[p 37]

Headlines in Hack Attack scenario:

"#Congo #Death #Toll Hits 10,000 in Malaria Drug Scandal (2018)"

"Doctors Without Borders Confined Within Borders (2020)"

"#India-#Pakistan Water War Rages (2027)"

[p 38]

"The operational model in this world is a "#fortress #model" in which #philanthropic organizations coalesce into a strong, #single unit to combat fraud and lack of trust."

[p 40]

"Technology trends and applications we might see:

New threats like #weaponized #biological #pathogens and destructive #botnets dominate public attention..."

[p 39]

"Identity-verification technologies become a staple of daily life, w/ some hitches—a database of #retina recordings stolen by #hackers in 2017 is used to create numerous false identities...

...procedures like the lunchtime #facelift become routine among emerging middle classes"

Life in hack attack:

"#Botswana had none of the high-tech #biometric scanning checkpoints — technology that could literally see right through you — that most developed nations had in abundance in their #airports, along their #borders, and in government buildings."

[p 40]

"Trent was also careful to cover his tracks to avoid being kidnapped by international #crime syndicates — including
the #Russian mafia and the #Chinese triads — that had
become very active and influential in Botswana."

[p 40]

"As expected, #counterfeit #vaccines were being manufactured. But so were #GMO seeds. And #synthetic proteins."

[ p 40]

Scenario #4: Smart Scramble

"The #global #recession that started in 2008 did not trail off in 2010 but dragged onward. Vigorous attempts to jumpstart markets and economies didn't work, or at least not fast enough to reverse the steady downward pull."

[p 41]

"Overall, economic stability felt so shaky that the occurrence
of a sudden #climate shock or other #disaster would likely send the world into a tailspin."

[p 41-42]

"Yet without major progress in #global #economic #integration and collaboration, many worried that good ideas would stay isolated, and survival and success would remain a local — not a global or national — phenomenon."

[p 45]

"Philanthropic organizations look to fund at the grassroots level...The meta-goal in this world is to #scale up: to identify
and build capacity from the individual through the institutional, because without #global #coordination, innovation cannot scale on its own."

[p 46]

Headlines in Smart Scramble:

"#Chinese Government Pressured as Protests Spread to 250 Cities (2017)"

"#Famine Haunts #Ethiopia—Again (2022)"

[p 46]

"We hope that reading the scenario narratives and their accompanying stories about philanthropy, technology, and people has sparked your imagination, provoking new thinking about these emergent themes and their possibilities."

[p 49]

"This report is the result of extensive effort and collaboration among #Rockefeller Foundation initiative staff, Foundation grantees, and external experts."

[p 52]

Download the report:

nommeraadio.ee/meedia/pdf/RRS…

Let's circle back. Schwartz, report lead, is Sen. VP Strategic Planning for #Salesforce. Salesforce founder/CEO Marc Benioff serves as the inaugural Chair of WEF's Forum Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution in San Francisco. In 2019 WEF partnered w/ #UN, in 2020 w/ #WHO.