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The US death rate from CV-19 is doubling every 2.5 - 3 days.

That's faster than Spain. That's faster than Italy.
Death rate, as I'm using the term here, is deaths per day.

If that's not immediately obvious to you ... if you feel compelled to conflate this with mortality rate or CFR or deaths per capita or some other nonsense ... then please stop following me.
50% increase in daily US deaths since yesterday.

We will top 400 dead ... today.

I got dragged by the usual know-nothing crew for saying we could hit 1,000 daily deaths by Trump's Easter triumph. Hell, we could top 1,000 daily deaths by April 1.

worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…
Seeing emails from ICU docs all over the country. Northeast. South. Midwest. SoCal. Northwest. Same shitshow everywhere.

400 deaths today. +50% in a day.

Just gonna say it. We can’t accept Marshal Petain and Madame Defarge bearding for Trump any more.

It’s time to howl.
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Ben Hunt
@EpsilonTheory
My thoughts? My thoughts are that this article is a crock of hot steaming shit, and the editors who chose to publish it will live with a stain on their souls for the rest of their lives.
The core "analysis" of this article is to extrapolate from the CV-19 infection rates of Western expat evacuees to ALL of Wuhan, then reject the official Chinese case numbers but accept the official Chinese death numbers.

It's just idiotic.

wsj.com/articles/is-th…
I can't believe I have to keep reposting this note.

I can't believe that supposedly serious people still take the Chinese CV-19 data at face value.

At this point I can't believe it's incompetence. It's just corrupt.

epsilontheory.com/body-count/
Read 3 tweets
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Ben Hunt
@EpsilonTheory
Two weeks of CV-19 in Dallas. 169 cases.

37% under 40 yo.
36% hospitalized.
13% go to ICU.
6% go on ventilator.
3% die.
Screenshot of the Collins County (North Dallas) court order creating a state of emergency.

All businesses, jobs and workers in the county - ALL OF THEM - are officially deemed “essential”, so that there are zero protections - ZERO - for workers who want to stay home.

JFC.
Of course, my favorite part of this obscene Collin County court order creating a state of "emergency" in North Dallas is the oddly specific prohibition on frequenting massage parlors.
Read 3 tweets
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Ben Hunt
@EpsilonTheory
Case, case, case ... cluster, cluster, cluster ... then BOOM. That's what an exponential function looks like.

Today's hotspots are NY/NJ and WA.
Tomorrow's hotspots are Louisiana, MA and IL.
This weekend's hotspots are TX, FL, GA and PA.

We're all going to be hotspots.
Well done. @CharlesFLehman

We get through this crisis by relaxing economic restrictions AFTER a region has experienced hotspot status, not before.

And that relaxation of economic restrictions MUST by accompanied by constant and ubiquitous testing.

This is the formula that saves lives & saves the economy.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Jim Edwards
@Jim_Edwards
Good morning! Let's take a look at the state of #COVID2019 infection country by country, starting with the UK: ...
UK: New cases are flat and new deaths are down.

It's only one day of data, so we can't draw conclusions.

But this is a good day for the UK.
China remains the gold standard.

No further new cases and negligible new deaths (for a country that size).
Read 14 tweets
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Ed Hannan
@ed_hannan
1. Information compiled and updated daily on the website of Swiss Propaganda Research (SPR), an important resource for #Covid19 #Coronavirus & #Media:
➡️ swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor…
(A thread, I'm not associated with SPR)
2. March 18, 2020
"A new epidemiological study (preprint) concludes that the fatality of Covid19 even in the Chinese city of Wuhan was only 0.04% to 0.12% and thus rather lower than that of seasonal flu, which has a mortality rate of about 0.1%.
[...]
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
3.
"Chinese researchers argue that extreme winter smog in the city of Wuhan may have played a causal role in the outbreak of pneumonia. In the summer of 2019, public protests were already taking place in Wuhan because of poor air
eurasiareview.com/01022020-pollu…
edition.cnn.com/2019/07/10/asi…
Read 65 tweets
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Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
⚠️Death toll from #coronavirus surges in #NYC with deaths DOUBLING *nearly every day*, much faster than Northern #Italy (Lombardia) where hospitals are overwhelmed

#WA and #CA have less deaths, likely due to lower relative density of their populations.

#COVID19
📸@jburnmurdoch
The number of #coronavirus cases in the US continues to explode at the fastest pace at the same time point for *any* country.

Although #China likely covered up cases, the US still isn’t testing heavily.🤬

#COVID19 #CoronavirusPandemic
The total number of #coronavirus deaths in the US *appears* to be rising slower than other countries, but expect #COVID19 deaths to accelerate over the next few weeks, as more testing becomes available, and the virus continues to spread exponentially.

#CoronavirusPandemic
Read 4 tweets
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Anurag Singh
@anuragsingh_as
LONG THREAD: Corona Virus: Hype, Damn-hype & stats.

I’m no expert on medicine. While we have medical experts for that, it would be naive to expect that they also economics. So we're moving closer to a global lockdown where critical data points are missing #CoronavirusPandemic
This is an effort to understand publicly available medical data on COVID-19 , evaluate the proposed responses & raise few questions that must be answered if we are to come out stronger from this. World certainly need more transparency & better data.
Mortality rate: Why does it matter today?

Most developed nations have a death rate of 10 & least developed ones have appx 7. So, a rate of 10 implies 1% deaths annually. The whole point of avoiding an epidemic is that we should not have an increase in this 1% number eventually.
Read 36 tweets
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Beͫvͣaͬnͨd
@zorinaq
Over 12 000 new cases of COVID-19 were reported today in the world

Exponential growth is observed in 14 of the 15 countries with the most cumulative cases (exception: South Korea)

Cases are multiplying by 10 every 14 days, and show no sign of slowing down.

#coronavirus
Here are the cumulative charts of the number of COVID-19 cases.

I excluded China to better show the evolution happening outside this country.

The exponential growth, 10x every 14 days, has been shockingly constant since early February.
Now deaths.

Over 350 COVID-19 deaths were reported today in the world.

Italy and Iran account for about two thirds of them.
Read 12 tweets
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IRIS Earthquake Sci
@IRIS_EPO
NEW ANIMATION! Foreshock, Mainshock, or Aftershock? (THREAD) #earthquake @NSF_GEO
There is often confusion surrounding the terminology of earthquakes. Large earthquakes are followed by 100s or even 1000s of smaller earthquakes, called aftershocks. In some #earthquake sequences, a smaller earthquake called a “foreshock”, precedes the mainshock.
Although seismologists have carefully analyzed foreshock/mainshock pairs of earthquakes, and earthquake triggering in general, there are no special characteristics of a foreshock that let us know it is a foreshock until the mainshock occurs.
Read 12 tweets

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