Fortunately the true parameters of the Covid-19 outbreak will be accurately known as a result of a growing baseline of actual test, diagnosis and treatment. There is less dependence on China data and predictive models.
My own guess is that some worst case scenarios will be revised downwards in the coming days, and although these may be disputed, the availability of sufficient reliable data will be definitive.
What will remain is a very serious pandemic, but in true proportion. It's bad but it may not be the apocalypse some feared. How bad? Well the data will tell us.
With growing information in hand reasonable policy balancing work and quarantine can be devised on a sound basis. That won't make it easy but it will make it sane.
