Just before travel started getting locked down I was at a small gathering of people brought together to talk about the future of computing. One of the after-dinner topics was more general predictions a decade ahead, and the first question was "Person on Mars in 10 years?"
Many thought it would happen, but despite wishing it, I think the odds are <50% in that window. As a clarifying tactic, I said "Lets put money on it. $10k says it doesn't happen by then." It was *striking* how opinions got immediately reevaluated much more critically. This was
a room full of world class engineers, but the gap between abstract belief and careful consideration was large. I try this tactic often, because I think people will argue, sometimes passionately and occasionally belligerently, for positions that, if they really bring all their
critical faculties to bear, they won't stand behind. Usually the topic winds up getting changed, but someone actually stepped up and took my bet this time. @Smerity and I shook on it. I hope I lose, and I see paths to it, but I think there will be setbacks that push it out a bit.
