Thread by @Bob_Wachter

Covid (@UCSF) Chronicles, Day 11

1/ Thankfully, still no surge @ucsfhospitals. Today, 13 #Covid19 pts (last 3d: 11->14->13).

7/13 pts in ICU. Why high ICU:floor ratio lately? Maybe long ICU stays (vs floor pts, who usually come&go)? Lower threshold 4 ICU observation? Not sure

2/ Overall SF: still mild growth (223->279->308 last 3d). Now 12d since SF stay-at-home order; most pre-lockdown cases should have shown up by now. When history is written, local mayors (inc @LondonBreed) & Gov @GavinNewsom should get credit for saving hundreds of lives

3/ The state-by-state models (eg, bit.ly/2WPnNHX ) support the California-as-Exception narrative. But there are within-CA diffrnces: worse in LA, Santa Clara & SD than SF bit.ly/3bJKVMv ...though none resemble NY, New Orleans & a few others, all being brutalized

4/ Biggest concern in San Francisco is @LagunaHonda Hospital, our huge nursing home, with ~750 elderly & chronically ill residents. LHH now has 6 infected staff, & one Covid+ resident bit.ly/2QRJEuq @SF_DPH is working hard to address this, but it has scary potential

5/ Brief report today, so will end with some music & sports: we all need a little joy in the gloom. Music first: this Beethoven’s 9th from Spain is awesome bit.ly/3dDsg6L (3min). So is this Covid-inspired Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious bit.ly/3dEeReo (2min)

6/ Finally, my son Doug–who does Moneyball for the Atlanta @Braves–is looking for sports to watch, and stumbled onto this dramatic contest. Guaranteed to bring a smile bit.ly/2WSa2Z8 (<2min). Thanks @MrAndrewCotter, and (of course) Mabel & Olive!

Stay safe. Tomorrow...