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NEW at @CookPolitical: 10 rating changes (7 towards Ds, 3 towards Rs) as Democrats' edge in the battle for the House grows...
Basically, #COVID19 has all but frozen House recruitment & severely curtailed fundraising. That's an advantage for incumbents & bad news for upstates.

At end of 2019, median House D in a Trump district had $1.8 million cash on hand while median leading R challenger had $247,000.
Today, we've moved four freshman Dems out of Toss Up based on the weakness of their GOP opposition:

#IL14 Lauren Underwood (D) - Toss Up to Lean D
#MI08 Elissa Slotkin (D) - Toss Up to Lean D
#NY19 Antonio Delgado (D) - Toss Up to Lean D
#UT04 Ben McAdams (D) - Toss Up to Lean D
Six other new @CookPolitical changes:

#FL26 Mucarsel-Powell (D) - Likely D to Lean D
#IL06 Casten (D) - Lean D to Likely D
#MO02 Wagner (R) - Likely R to Lean R
#NC08 Hudson (R) - Solid R to Likely R
#NC09 Bishop (R) - Likely R to Solid R
#TX31 Carter (R) - Lean R to Likely R
*upstarts, not upstates
Be sure to subscribe to @CookPolitical for full rundowns & the latest on all of these and other races.
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#COVID19 #IL14 #MI08 #NY19 #UT04 #FL26 #IL06 #MO02 #NC08 #NC09 #TX31

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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Relevant as U.S. death toll hits four digits: by my calc, counties that voted for Trump in 2016 account for 45% of the U.S. population but so far just 19% of all U.S. #COVID19 deaths, per JHU data.
Why relevant? It's helping drive the partisan, urban/rural gulf in public opinion on the severity of the crisis. The question is whether public opinion changes when, as most experts expect, the latter % rises over next few weeks.
Update: in the past three days, the #COVID19 U.S. death toll has doubled, but Trump-won counties' share of all deaths has actually *fallen* from 19% to 17% as toll in NY, NJ & Detroit has surged, per JHU data.

Trump-won counties make up 45% of the U.S. population.
Read 3 tweets
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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
A reality Dems have to grapple with: more voters are starting to accept Trump’s version of the story. morningconsult.com/2020/03/20/tru…
Many Trump opponents take it as an article of faith that NYT/WaPo/CNN/mainstream coverage will persuade the country of his faults.

In doing so, they’re underestimating Trump’s ability to write/rewrite history of COVID response. Those outlets aren’t getting through.
That’s why over the course of 2020 I’ll be much more focused on what @taraemcg & Dems/Biden’s social media strategies look like than what’s on the editorial pages of the NYT/WaPo, which have essentially become ineffectual echo chambers.
Read 3 tweets
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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
My estimates of eligible citizens who *didn't* vote in 2016, non-whites vs. whites w/o college degrees (in thousands):

AZ: 904 / 684
GA: 1,303 / 1,172
TX: 4,274 / 2,665
-------
FL: 2,565 / 2,566
MI: 643 / 1,564
MN: 259 / 786
NC: 834 / 1,105
PA: 695 / 2,290
WI: 306 / 819
While we're at it...

IA: 90 / 612
ME: 34 / 207
NV: 325 / 387
NH: 25 / 220
OH: 580 / 2,051
FWIW, I arrived at these estimates based on an amalgamation of the Census's various 2016 CPS data.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Micah Allen
@micahgallen
I see a lot of ongoing debate, and some snark, about people pivoting into #COVIDー19 related research, particularly in #psychology. As the PI of a lab working on one of these projects, here is a thread on my thoughts:
First off, I totally get the snark. Academics are like baby ducklings. Someone gets a Nobel Prize or a Nature paper on something, a year later there are 300 new projects on that topic. VSS last year was Deep Learn All the Things. No doubt that we love a good bandwagon.
When I first started seeing psychology papers rolling out, my first reaction was a) mild jealousy at being so incredibly productive at a time when my brain was in complete failure mode and b) mild ire at what seemed, at first, a bit opportunistic.
Read 25 tweets
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Ashok Swain
@ashoswai
1. China vs India - #COVID-19
In China, in the early weeks of the outbreak in Wuhan, the shortage of proper protective medical supplies and lack of knowledge about COVID-19 were the main factors causing the large number of healthcare workers to contract the #CoronaVirus .
2. China vs India - #COVID-19
Since January 2020, however, Beijing sent 31 medical teams consisting of more than 42,000 doctors and nurses to Wuhan to combat the outbreak. Two new hospitals with over 1,000 beds each were built in less than 10 days in Wuhan.
3. China vs India - #COVID-19
New technologies were applied in China such as the use of big data & AI to strengthen contact tracing & the management of priority populations. Health insurance policies were promulgated on "insurance payment, off-site settlement, & compensation."
Read 7 tweets
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Chicago Community Bond Fund
@ChiBondFund
This is a thread about why it is absolutely essential that we get people out of jails, prisons, & immigration detention during the #COVIDー19 pandemic. It will include information & demands for how to #StopCOVID19inJails .

The health of people inside & all of us depends on it.
This piece by @premaldharia explains how #COVIDー19 could spark a humanitarian crisis inside prisons and jails. slate.com/news-and-polit… #StopCOVID19inJails
Jails and prisons are the perfect incubators for #COVIDー19. Health care in these facilities is often abysmal. This article from @nhbaptiste explains what jails and prisons should be doing to improve access to healthcare. motherjones.com/politics/2020/… #StopCOVID19inJails
Read 34 tweets
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🇺🇸 Elisa, A Nationalist 🇺🇸
@elisamich0422
None of thrse antics “further any legislative activity” it’s all purely political. The #Democrats are locked into their only interests: discovering Trump’s taxes, exposing them, finding his 182 businesses & contacts to expose & destroy him. His personal records should be sealed.
2/ How and what he did as a businessman is irrelevant to the way brilliant way he is running the country. This is the politics of destruction. What good man will ever step forward to work for his country if facing the hyenas & jackals of Democrats is your reward? This is the
3/ politics of a non-party with no ideas & no platform falling in on itself, coming up empty handed. So like jackals, they look at what they can destroy. And they will try and destroy all that is good to make themselves look better.
Read 5 tweets
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Bansi Sharma
@bansisharma
How many would vote for David Hogg? I would expect no less, considering today's Democratic party. It's not a party of serious people anymore. Thank you for gathering and publishing evidence.

#Democrats #Republicans @AOC @davidhogg111
Although no evidence was needed for non-Democrats, for those 26% of sensible Democrats, and especially the Democratic-leaning adults, who did not fall for the shiny new object, it's good to see how many other Democrats have become infantile.
#Democrats #Republicans
Maybe the Democratic base is getting sick and tired of the leaders of the Democratic party, who go to DC and never leave until the Grim Reaper comes calling, and would much rather commit a rapturous harakiri with a shiny new object than die of boredom.
#Democrats #Republicans
Read 3 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris📈🤷‍♂️
@gelliottmorris
New #PA Congressional map is pretty much the best one Democrats could have hoped for. At least 2 pickups in neutral environment, likely ability to win 11 in current D+6 environment. Post coming
PA redraw creates map that is almost entirely drawn from scratch. Huge shifts from 2016 plan all over the place. Dems favored to win 9 seats there in almost any national environment.
(big swings mostly from renumbering, but aggregate differences are clear)
Read 11 tweets

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