15% of Bernie supporters is more than in 2016.
Biden will lose with a lousy 2-point national lead in that sample.
Biden will lose with a lousy 2-point national lead in that sample.
If I was a 2020 Democratic presidential candidate, I would feel like a loss was coming if I wasn't ahead by 5.
Why?
1. The Electoral College. 2. Enthusiasm among Trump voters.
Anyone worth anything in this game knows that 2-point lead cannot survive that big an enthusiasm gap.
Why?
1. The Electoral College. 2. Enthusiasm among Trump voters.
Anyone worth anything in this game knows that 2-point lead cannot survive that big an enthusiasm gap.
"There’s déjà vu in these results: Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton found herself in largely the same position four years ago."
That spread almost mirrors our polling four years ago, precisely. In fact, reason our national wasn't as accurate as states is because...
That spread almost mirrors our polling four years ago, precisely. In fact, reason our national wasn't as accurate as states is because...
... because that enthusiasm gap just didn't manifest across the country equally, meaning it turned out for @realDonaldTrump where it needed to turn out.
The "Blue Wall" (I don't believe in walls), the battleground states and even Dem-edge but not solid states like MN, CO, VA.
The "Blue Wall" (I don't believe in walls), the battleground states and even Dem-edge but not solid states like MN, CO, VA.
