NZ's declassified #COVID-19 modelling offers clues to Australia's pandemic plans smh.com.au/national/nz-s-… via @smh
@smh There are six reports and plenty more I couldn't fit into this article, so tweets it is!
One report finalised 23 March found that if NZ's interventions are intense enough, in some scenarios the epidemic peak could be pushed out to next year (when hopefully a vaccine will be available.
It was great to see all the various evidence the modelling drew on: the Imperial College's work, large Chinese studies, WHO, US, and of course work by Australia's AHPPC advisors.
The modellers tried to push the peaks of the epidemic into 2021 assuming the virus had an R0 of 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 and then plugging in various interventions.
Here's the epidemic curves for the three R0 scenarios if there were no changes in human behaviour or interventions. Look at those spiky peaks. 
Here's what it looks like assuming a 25% uptake of "general contact reduction" interventions for 6 months.
And this assumes a 50% general contact reduction for nine months.
