Thread by @DrEricDing

Huge 20x undercount of deaths in Wuhan? “Based on cremation figures, Wuhan residents estimate more than 40,000 have died, compared with an official toll of 2,535.” #COVID19. The numbers have never added up. Let’s go thru several analyses...
THREAD 🧵:
rfa.org/english/news/c…

2) “residents said they were growing increasingly skeptical that the figure of some 2,500 deaths in the city to date was accurate. seven large funeral homes in Wuhan have been handing out the cremated remains of around 500 people to their families every day” #COVID19

3) “It can't be right ... because the incinerators have been working round the clock, so how can so few people have died?" an Wuhan resident surnamed Zhang told RFA” #COVID19

4) “Caixin.com reported 5,000 urns had been delivered by a supplier to Hankou Funeral Home in one day alone -- double official number of deaths. Some social media posts have estimated that all 7 funeral homes in Wuhan are handing out 3,500 urns every day“. #COVID19

“Funeral homes have informed families that they will try to complete cremations before the traditional grave-tending festival of Qing Ming on April 5, a 12-day process beginning on March 23. Such an estimate would mean 42,000 urns would be given out during that time.” #COVID19

6) “Another popular estimate is based on the cremation capacity of the funeral homes, which run a total of 84 furnaces with a capacity over 24 hours of 1,560 urns city-wide, assuming that one cremation takes one hour. This calculation results in estimated 46,800 deaths.” #COVID19

7) “A source close to the provincial civil affairs bureau said many people had died at home, without being diagnosed with, or treated for, #COVID19. The source said any talk of true number of deaths in Wuhan was very sensitive, but that authorities do likely know the real figure”

8) “The source said Wuhan saw 28,000 cremations in the space of a single month, suggesting that the online estimates over a two-and-a-half month period weren't excessive.” #COVID19

9) "There have been a lot of funerals in the past few days, and the authorities are handing out 3,000 yuan in hush money to families who get their loved ones' remains laid to rest ahead of Qing Ming," in reference to the traditional grave tending festival on April 5.” #COVID19

10) “nobody in the city believes the official death toll.

"The official number of deaths was 2,500 people ... but before the epidemic began, the city's crematoriums typically cremated around 220 people a day," #COVID19

11) "But during the epidemic, they transferred cremation workers from around China to Wuhan keep cremate bodies around the clock,".

the city's seven crematoriums should have a capacity of around 2,000 bodies a day if they worked around the clock... #COVID19

12) "Anyone looking at that figure will realize, anyone with any ability to think, ‘What are they talking about [2,535] people?"

"Seven crematoriums could get through more than that [in a single day]." #COVID19

13) BOTTOMLINE: A lot more people likely died in Wuhan than official ~2500 reports. Chinese culture takes ceremony around death VERY seriously. The crematorium & urn⚱️ analysis very credible. Though other death causes likely, but any excess should be part of #COVID19 death count.

14) Other outlets have reported on this topic and the new 40,000 death estimate too. And the reputable @VOANews also quoted as the source of the 3000 yuan hush money. taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3905788

15) Deaths could be < full 40k. Hat tip to @Hugo_Lz on analysis:
Wuhan: 15M people.
Natural deaths:
-Yearly: ~150k
-Daily: ~500
Quarantined: 60days
Chinese new year departures: 1/3.

Wuhan natural deaths:
500×60×0.66=20k

📌20k natural & 📌20k excess ➡️ likely #COVID19 deaths.