The US deaths doubling time is 2.6 days.
Which = 100,000 deaths by April 11th
and 200,000 by April 14th (you're hearing underestimates)
Unless something gives via flattening.
Here's @BMcNoldy's updated best-fit. We all need to hope this shifts downward. Soon.
Which = 100,000 deaths by April 11th
and 200,000 by April 14th (you're hearing underestimates)
Unless something gives via flattening.
Here's @BMcNoldy's updated best-fit. We all need to hope this shifts downward. Soon.
For context, US deaths
9/11: 2,996
World War I: 116,516
World War II: 405,000
9/11: 2,996
World War I: 116,516
World War II: 405,000
The @WhiteHouse advisors are 1° relying on @IHME_UW model.
On March 26:
"We estimate... a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106).. over the next 4 months in the US" healthdata.org/research-artic…
I think the world of @IHME_UW, but that projection is way off, more like 4 days
On March 26:
"We estimate... a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106).. over the next 4 months in the US" healthdata.org/research-artic…
I think the world of @IHME_UW, but that projection is way off, more like 4 days
To be more precise, we'd go beyond the 81K deaths in the next 10 days (not 4 months) unless the doubling time increases. The @IHME_UW model is unfortunately much too optimistic (it also assumes lockdown of all states/national, until end of May).
