Thread by @saxena_puru

1) Portfolio summary - March-end

$ADYYF $AYX $BABA $CRWD $DDOG $DOCU $ESTC $GSX $LVGO $MELI $PDD $PINS $ROKU $SE $SPCE $SQ $STNE $TAL $TCEHY $TWLO $UBER $WORK $ZS

Short $EWZ

Return since 1. 1. '19 (when I began posting here) -

Portfolio +40.89%
$ACWI (-)2.33%
$SPX +3.10%

2) YTD return -

Portfolio +24.96%
$ACWI (-)21.27%
$SPX (-)20.00%

S. America exposure hedged

Portfolio activity -

New positions - $ADYYF $DDOG $XP
Closed positions - $BZUN $LK $SPCE

Note - I made an innocent mistake in 1st tweet above by excluding $XP and including $SPCE

3) Commentary -

March was an epic month for the financial markets and due to the global spread of COVID-19, we saw violent reactions in bonds, commodities and stocks.

Global equities fell sharply and there was nowhere to hide. During the month, equity futures were limit...

4) down and circuit breakers were triggered on a few occasions to halt the decline!

For the first time since the GFC, there was evidence of forced liquidation; as the selling was indiscriminate and violent.

Near the recent lows, the market was severely oversold...

5)...and the aggressive action by the Fed and the US government managed to restore some confidence.

My own portfolio was hedged for most of the month, so I managed to avoid the carnage but still gave back some YTD gains. During the month, I stayed hedged 1:1 and also...

6)...opportunistically beta-hedged my portfolio by going short #ES_F (and locking gains after big declines).

Despite these efforts, my portfolio depreciated during the month and this just shows the power of the downtrend.

In terms of changes, I sold out of $BZUN $LK $SPCE ..

7)...and opened positions in $ADYYF $DDOG $XP

Given the high uncertainty and recessionary environment, I wanted to get rid of all speculative companies and only own dominant and well capitalised ones.

This is why I included Adyen, Datadog and XP Inc. in my portfolio.

8) There is no way to sugarcoat this - we are passing through a recession and over the next couple of quarters, the economic surprises are likely to be to the downside.

The key question is how much has already been discounted by the market?

My crystal ball broke a long time..

9)...ago so I don't really know how much weakness is currently baked into the price; but should the market head south again, my hedges will kick in.

For now, the primary trend in the US is still down but the short-term trend is up so I'm letting my horses run.

There can be..

10)..no doubt that these lockdowns and social distancing efforts will be problematic for many industries but I'm hopeful that this environment might prove to be constructive for many of my portfolio companies.

This period will be the litmus test for the software industry...

11)...because we will now be able to gauge the resiliency of these recurring revenues.

I may be wrong about this but happen to think that although the high growth rates of the SaaS companies might come down, unless their customers go out of business, they should be able to..

12)...retain their revenue bases. After all, unless things get really dire, companies won't want to get rid of their mission-critical software (although they may try and alter the payment terms).

In summary, we are passing through an unprecedented period and since the future...

13)...is largely unknowable, we'll just have to see how the chips might fall.

In my view, things will probably start to improve after 6-8 weeks and then, thanks to the monetary and fiscal stimulus, we will get an epic bull market. As always, time will tell. Stay safe!

THE END.