Thread by @NathanielParish

The Mexico City metro area has limited ventilators and ICU beds for a population of 21+ million.

As the number of cases rises, Mexico will need to take extraordinary actions to confront #CoronavirusMx.

In my latest article for Forbes I explain:
forbes.com/sites/nathanie…

U.N. Secretary General @antonioguterres recently explained that #COVID19mx is the greatest "test" the world has faced since World War II.

Mexico's President #AMLO continues to suggest that it's a "short-term health crisis" & promises that the country will bounce back quickly.

Andrew Trahan, a Latin America Country Risk analyst at @FitchSolutions told me, “Mexico is already behind the curve on both taking steps to slow the #COVID19mx virus and propping up the economy."

.@Viri_Rios a Mexican political scientist who lectures at @Harvard University, told me, “the resources of the Mexican government are very limited. Even if we cut spending on mega-projects the budget of the Mexican state is not enough to deal with this.”

Mexico City-based health policy consultant @StratCons told me, “We aren't prepared. Today we are short on products and space in hospitals. When the numbers of patients grow we won't have protective equipment. The number of patients will exceed the capacity of our hospitals."

Mexico's President #AMLO needs to rally the country:

He needs to:

1. Make fighting #COVID19mx his top priority & suspend non-essential infrastructure projects

2. Deliver food to needy families during quarantine

3. Recruit the private sector & civil society to help

#AMLO needs to help private sector keep paying salaries.

U.N. Secretary General @antonioguterres explained, “It’s essential to keep households afloat. It’s essential to keep businesses afloat. This is going to be much more serious if there’s no effective coordination.”

There is simply no way that significant new income subsidy programs can be improvised quickly enough to help working families.

.@Viri_Rios told me "delivering food is going to be a game changer in attending to the most vulnerable.”

I explain, "rather than coordinating with business leaders on an action plan, #AMLO spent the weeks leading up to April quarantine criticizing Mexico’s business leaders. He won’t be able to battle the virus and the country’s biggest employers at the same time."

Medical device-maker @HillromCorp plans to build ventilators in Tijuana.

Ventilator producer @Medtronic and @ToyotaMotorCorp both operate huge facilities in Tijuana.

If @GM can adapt to produce ventilators in the U.S., why can’t Medtronic & Toyota do the same in Mexico?

Companies that make uniforms & clothing can produce protective equipment for hospital workers.

This type of coordinated response is possible but it will not emerge organically.

President #AMLO needs to rally a call for assistance.

Right now #AMLO chafes at the idea of offering temporary tax-breaks or subsidies to help the private sector.

It will not work for AMLO to demand that others make sacrifices while he continues to promote pet projects like a refinery in his home state & a train for tourists.

There is still time for #AMLO to recognize the significance of this crisis and start working to coordinate the extraordinary response that will be required to carry the country though the next few weeks and months, minimizing the economic and human cost that the virus inflicts.

Having seen #AMLO’s #covid19mx plan so far, few policy analysts are optimistic.

@AztecDuncan, the Director of the @MexicoInstitute told me:

“We do have time. But, overall, I am very pessimistic. I don't see how this ends in anything other than an absolute disaster in Mexico.”