Bad excuse because many projections are released well into mitigation steps being active, yet they are still off a mere week out. IHME showed last Thursday that NY will need 10,839 ICU’s by yesterday. It was 3,732. Is @IHME_UW changing the data that create those models? No.
By Wednesday 4/1, their model showed NY will need 11,621 beds on April 9th. Their prediction was moved back a week just like that.
Also, the daily change in ICU use in NY was:
172 Fri 3/27/20
282 Sat
315 Sun
367 Monday 3/30/20
303 Tuesday
374 Wed
335 Thur 4/2/20
Also, the daily change in ICU use in NY was:
172 Fri 3/27/20
282 Sat
315 Sun
367 Monday 3/30/20
303 Tuesday
374 Wed
335 Thur 4/2/20
So... For NY to need 11,621 ICU beds by April 9th, the ICU bed use in NY needs to jump by 7,890 from today through April 8th. That’s an average increase of 1,315 ICUs per day the next 6 days when the last 5 day average is 338 a day with a narrow range of 315 to 374 per day.
Reporters and WH Task Force staff should ask IHME two things:
A) Why were you off a few hundred percent a week out about ICU need in NY for Thursday April second?
B) Based on what do you expect new ICU use to average 1,315 the next 6 days when the last 5 day average was 338?
A) Why were you off a few hundred percent a week out about ICU need in NY for Thursday April second?
B) Based on what do you expect new ICU use to average 1,315 the next 6 days when the last 5 day average was 338?
Maybe they have good answers but I am not a 🧟♂️ nor am I a 🦜. Nationwide policy is shaped on their hospital/ICU model which relies heavy on NY but they are repeatedly wrong on the hospital/ICU use. I am staying home; keeping distance when out but questions need to be asked.
BTW, last week Monday March 23, Cuomo said NY’s apex in need of 30,000 ICU beds will be in 14-21 days which is April 6-13.
As of April 2nd, the ICU use was 3,731.
Latest is that we are hitting this at the end of April. Possible. But we need explainers for these wrong models.
As of April 2nd, the ICU use was 3,731.
Latest is that we are hitting this at the end of April. Possible. But we need explainers for these wrong models.
None of the above should be used to dismiss the issues at the hospitals and the mass death count. But having those challenges do not vindicate the repeatedly flawed projections that are shaping Coronavirus policies. If you see this thread as “dismissing” Corona, get lost.
