[THREAD] This is a long thread mostly about the 4 most prominent German virologists that are most often seen on national TV. And I will touch on a bit on their stances on actively persuing herd immunity in a controlled way. 1/n 
But first, I would like to know how things are in your country:
1. In public statements/discussions by virologists about the next phase in the epidemic: What is their end game? Do they indicate that this epidemic ends once herd immunity of 60-70% of population is achieved? 2/n
1. In public statements/discussions by virologists about the next phase in the epidemic: What is their end game? Do they indicate that this epidemic ends once herd immunity of 60-70% of population is achieved? 2/n
Do they advocate for a controlled way to achieve that by allowing infections to happen while staying just below ICU capacity limits? Or do they peruse suppression of the virus (containment) like China and South Korea did? ("The hammer and the dance")? 3/n
medium.com/tomas-pueyo/co…
medium.com/tomas-pueyo/co…
2. How many virologists/epidemiologists are there in your country that are regulars on national TV or shaping the public/political opinion? Please, if you will, tell me their names and Twitter handle (or Facebook if they regularly use that medium) 4/n
In Germany, I would say, those who appear in the public eye the most are 4 virologists plus one politician, @Karl_Lauterbach who studied epidemiology in Harvard, but doesn't actually work in this field (which is why he is seen not so much as a first grade epidemiologist, but 5/n
more as a knowledgable health politician).
To me, he is the beacon against this "ideology" of controlled, slow infection of the German population to achieve herd immunity, mentioning also that many of those who survive #COVID19 might have health damage due to extended need 6/n
To me, he is the beacon against this "ideology" of controlled, slow infection of the German population to achieve herd immunity, mentioning also that many of those who survive #COVID19 might have health damage due to extended need 6/n
for ventilation, or reduced lung function. I shouldn't call it "ideology", it shows my anger with this idea that sadly never gets questioned by journalist/talk show hosts. They maybe think that the virologists can't be wrong on that? Or did they get so used to hearing this 7/n
idea from top virologist @c_drosten which then got repeated by the newspapers and even by our chancellor Angela Merkel? 8/n
Here is a good thread that questions the statements by @ChanasitJonas regarding controlled infections to achieve herd immunity and about the lack of critical questions about this strategy by the media: 9/n
By the way, well known @ifo_Institut for Economic Research put out a paper recently asking for paced re-opening of our soft lockdown after Easter in which they simply state, that "it's not (anymore) pursued and wouldn't be actually realistic to stop the 10/n
epidemic completely [in Germany]" without giving any further details for that reasoning, while actually the government hasn't publicly declared a strategy after the lockdown. Instead they give a rough calculation resulting in the conclusion that it would take the German 11/n
population more than 2 yrs to reach 70% infections = herd immunity, thus setting the min time frame for the measures suggested in the text. Interestingly, they don't mention the number of deaths to be expected (hundreds of thousands!) by this strategy 12/n
Two of the 4 virologists I mentioned (@ChanasitJonas & @hendrikstreeck) repeatedly mentioned this herd immunity goal lately. @c_drosten, our top virologist (as an adviser of the Government and @rki_de) as I mentioned was actually the first to float this whole idea in the 13/n
public eye back in at the end of February.
didn't hear that from him lately, though I'm afraid he probably still holds that view (didn't listen to most of his daily podcasts at ndr.de/nachrichten/in… lately, I have to admit; they are also available 14/n
didn't hear that from him lately, though I'm afraid he probably still holds that view (didn't listen to most of his daily podcasts at ndr.de/nachrichten/in… lately, I have to admit; they are also available 14/n
In text form: ndr.de/nachrichten/in…).
Lastly there is @AlexanderKekule who is slightly is an "outcast" among the 4. For once, because initially when Germany was hesitant to the idea of canceling mass events and school closures he harshly criticized the government. 15/n
Lastly there is @AlexanderKekule who is slightly is an "outcast" among the 4. For once, because initially when Germany was hesitant to the idea of canceling mass events and school closures he harshly criticized the government. 15/n
A few days after the cancelling of mass events and after school closures he informed the population of Germany by a text on his personal website that "the [...] risk of encountering an infected individual may have reached the threshold 1:1000 " plus 16/n
"The anti epidemic measures in Germany came into effect too late. In the following days, the epidemic will enter the exponential phase" which is why he declared personal protection alert ORANGE. 17/n
That was quite unorthodox to do as normally it would be the Government who declares such an alert. That was a bit worrisome to me, because it felt that I must trust this expert more than the government (at this stage the small community of informed Coronavirus "epidemic 18/n
observers" on Twitter were getting desperate with the government for reacting so slowly, feeling that the threat wasn't being taken serious enough). Though a little nervous because of the alarming tone of Kekukés message, I felt well informed and reassured by the detailed 19/n
information and safety measures provided by him. We were glad to have him in this time (which strangely was only a month ago), because he pushed for mitigation measures.
His early demand for school and kindergarten closures was publicly criticized via Twitter as floating 20/n
His early demand for school and kindergarten closures was publicly criticized via Twitter as floating 20/n
dangerous ideas by @ChanasitJonas because it might cause problems to medical personnel as well as other employees essential in the epidemic.
I do have to admit that I never heard of any lab work or studies that @AlexanderKekule is doing, he doesn't 21/n
I do have to admit that I never heard of any lab work or studies that @AlexanderKekule is doing, he doesn't 21/n
use Twitter to report on his lab/field/theoretical work as the other 3) Kekulé is hoping that our soft lockdown gets us to a place where we can follow the South Korean model, not pushing for herd immunity.
I actually didn't think I would add so many bits to this thread and 22/n
I actually didn't think I would add so many bits to this thread and 22/n
that I would also put in a bit of story time. I know this wasn't the most structured thread, but I thought maybe it might be of interest in these strange days to know a little bit about the scientific response to the pandemic in Germany. Mostly, I'd like to hear back some 23/n
from you, people. I'm just a well informed lay person who follows the virus's ways for the past three months maybe.
Feel free to share your stories, your feelings about your experts and Government. 24/24
Feel free to share your stories, your feelings about your experts and Government. 24/24
