GnS Economics Profile picture
Aug 12, 2020 8 tweets 7 min read Read on X
UK economy slumps 20% in second quarter, unemployment fears mount

Economy shrank by a record 20.4% between April and June, the largest contraction reported by any major economy so far, with a wave of job losses set to hit later in 2020.
#UK #recession

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-hea…
UK’s dilemma is mass layoffs or addiction to aid

Withdraw support for jobs and wages too soon and tip Britain into an unemployment crisis just as Brexit threaten growth. Some jobs may never return, others will be created post-crisis
#UK #recession

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
UK economic scars could be deeper than BOE thinks

#Economy will likely be smaller at the end of 2021 than it was before plunging into a record recession this year
#UK #recession

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
Central banks are full of optimists?

“Unlike #BoE chief economist Andy Haldane, who thinks it is now time to see the economic glass as ‘half-full’, recent data outturns have made us more pessimistic”

Takes at least 2 years to get back.
#UK #recession

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri…
UK economic revival clouded by debt, job losses and brexit

“We expect things to get tougher in the fall as the government’s furlough scheme ends and unemployment increases... recovery is likely to take a big leg down in the fourth quarter”
#UK #recession

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
🇬🇧 UK faces tough choices on job furlough program

“The government cannot continue to underwrite the wages of large portion of the economy... The alternative is worse: a debt crisis similar to post-2008”
#UK #recession #debt #crisis

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with GnS Economics

GnS Economics Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @GnSEconomics

Oct 5, 2020
September #PMI thread (August in brackets) 1/8
🇪🇺 #Eurozone
🇩🇪 #Germany
🇫🇷 #France
🇮🇹 #Italy
🇪🇸 #Spain
🇬🇧 #UK
+ Note on how to read PMI
#economy #recession
🇪🇺 Eurozone PMI 2/8

“With the eurozone economy having almost stalled in September, the chances of a renewed downturn in the fourth quarter have clearly risen"

Composite 50.4 (51.9)
Services 48.0 (50.5)
#Eurozone #PMI

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr…
🇩🇪 Germany PMI 3/8

"Growth in the German service sector slowed to a crawl in September, as the rebound in activity from the COVID-19 lockdown continued to lose steam"

Services 50.6 (52.5)
Composite 54.7 (54.4)
#Germany #PMI

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr…
Read 8 tweets
Oct 1, 2020
🇪🇺 Eurozone #Manufacturing #PMI

#Eurozone manufacturing growth strongest for over two years, 53.7 (August 51.7)

🇩🇪 #Germany 56.4
🇮🇹 #Italy 53.2
🇳🇱 #Netherlands 52.5
🇦🇹 #Austria 51.7
🇫🇷 #France 51.2
🇪🇸 #Spain 50.8
🇬🇷 #Greece 50.0
🇮🇪 #Ireland 50.0

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
🇩🇪 #Germany #Manufacturing #PMI

Sharp increases in output and new orders at end of third
quarter. Job shedding slows, but stocks show further steep declines.

September Manufacturing PMI 56.4 (August 52.2)

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
🇫🇷 #France #Manufacturing #PMI

Business conditions improve amid faster rise in
production. Fractionally quicker increase in new orders
supported by export growth.

September Manufacturing PMI 51.2 (August 49.8)

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
Read 8 tweets
Sep 24, 2020
September 2020 flash PMI in one thread, in following order

#US 🇺🇸
#UK 🇬🇧
#EuroZone 🇪🇺
#Germany 🇩🇪
#France 🇫🇷
#Japan 🇯🇵
#Australia 🇦🇺

+Note on diffusion indexes like the purchasing managers indexes, or #PMIs.

#economy #recession #recovery
🇺🇸 #US #PMI September 2020 (August)

Solid rise in private sector business activity in September

Composite Output 54.4 (54.6)
Services Business Activity 54.6 (55.0)
Manufacturing PMI 53.5 (53.1)
Manufacturing Output 53.3 (52.7)

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
🇬🇧 #UK #PMI September 2020 (August)

Recovery loses momentum and business outlook drops to its weakest since May

Composite Output 55.7 (59.1)
Services Business Activity 55.1 (58.8)
Manufacturing Output 59.3 (61.0)
Manufacturing PMI 54.3 (55.2)

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
Read 9 tweets
Sep 4, 2020
"Zombie firms’ productivity declines as leverage rises"

The zombie share peaked in 2010 at 16% and declined in the subsequent recovery by a mere 2 percentage points. Since 2015 the share of zombie companies is already rising again

Probability of a zombie remaining a zombie in the following year rose to 85% in 2017
#recession #economy Image
Read 4 tweets
Aug 30, 2020
🇩🇪 Longer suspension on #insolvency filings masks credit risk that explodes into wave of #bankruptcies when the moratorium ends

Also nurtures zombie companies that hold back investment and innovation and act as a drain on the #economy
#Germany #recession

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
“Zombie companies” are not a new phenomenon

They restrict the entry of new, more productive companies, diminish job creation in the economy and lock capital into unproductive uses. In a word, they are a menace to the economy and society
#recession

gnseconomics.com/2019/03/11/the…
World economy will follow the “Way of Japan” 🇯🇵

Central bankers will take an active (in practice, permanent) role in the financial markets. The hope is that this would keep the global asset bubble inflated and the world economy going
#recession

gnseconomics.com/2019/03/18/the…
Read 4 tweets
Aug 27, 2020
🇺🇸 🇯🇵 🇩🇪 🇫🇷 🇮🇹 🇪🇸 🇬🇧 🇨🇦 🇸🇪 🇰🇷
Reverse recovery

"The economic rebound in major advanced economies is stalling or even reversing"
#US #Japan #Germany #France #Italy #Spain #UK #Canada #Sweden #SouthKorea #recession

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(