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GnS Economics Profile picture
GnS Economics
@GnSEconomics
Macroeconomic, financial market and geopolitical forecasts, with a focus on worst-case scenarios. Helsinki-based, global operator.
Oct 5, 2020 • 8 tweets • 10 min read
September #PMI thread (August in brackets) 1/8
🇪🇺 #Eurozone
🇩🇪 #Germany
🇫🇷 #France
🇮🇹 #Italy
🇪🇸 #Spain
🇬🇧 #UK
+ Note on how to read PMI
#economy #recession 🇪🇺 Eurozone PMI 2/8

“With the eurozone economy having almost stalled in September, the chances of a renewed downturn in the fourth quarter have clearly risen"

Composite 50.4 (51.9)
Services 48.0 (50.5)
#Eurozone #PMI

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr…
Oct 1, 2020 • 8 tweets • 11 min read
🇪🇺 Eurozone #Manufacturing #PMI

#Eurozone manufacturing growth strongest for over two years, 53.7 (August 51.7)

🇩🇪 #Germany 56.4
🇮🇹 #Italy 53.2
🇳🇱 #Netherlands 52.5
🇦🇹 #Austria 51.7
🇫🇷 #France 51.2
🇪🇸 #Spain 50.8
🇬🇷 #Greece 50.0
🇮🇪 #Ireland 50.0

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image 🇩🇪 #Germany #Manufacturing #PMI

Sharp increases in output and new orders at end of third
quarter. Job shedding slows, but stocks show further steep declines.

September Manufacturing PMI 56.4 (August 52.2)

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
Sep 24, 2020 • 9 tweets • 10 min read
September 2020 flash PMI in one thread, in following order

#US 🇺🇸
#UK 🇬🇧
#EuroZone 🇪🇺
#Germany 🇩🇪
#France 🇫🇷
#Japan 🇯🇵
#Australia 🇦🇺

+Note on diffusion indexes like the purchasing managers indexes, or #PMIs.

#economy #recession #recovery 🇺🇸 #US #PMI September 2020 (August)

Solid rise in private sector business activity in September

Composite Output 54.4 (54.6)
Services Business Activity 54.6 (55.0)
Manufacturing PMI 53.5 (53.1)
Manufacturing Output 53.3 (52.7)

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
Sep 4, 2020 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
BIS warns of Zombies
#recession #economy "Zombie firms’ productivity declines as leverage rises"

Aug 30, 2020 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
🇩🇪 Longer suspension on #insolvency filings masks credit risk that explodes into wave of #bankruptcies when the moratorium ends

Also nurtures zombie companies that hold back investment and innovation and act as a drain on the #economy
#Germany #recession

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image “Zombie companies” are not a new phenomenon

They restrict the entry of new, more productive companies, diminish job creation in the economy and lock capital into unproductive uses. In a word, they are a menace to the economy and society
#recession

gnseconomics.com/2019/03/11/the…
Aug 27, 2020 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
🇺🇸 🇯🇵 🇩🇪 🇫🇷 🇮🇹 🇪🇸 🇬🇧 🇨🇦 🇸🇪 🇰🇷
Reverse recovery

"The economic rebound in major advanced economies is stalling or even reversing"
#US #Japan #Germany #France #Italy #Spain #UK #Canada #Sweden #SouthKorea #recession

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
Aug 25, 2020 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
🇦🇺 Australia’s recession longest since 1982-83, unemployment remain elevated due to a tepid recovery

GDP 2020
Q1 -0.3%
Q2 -6%
Q3 -0.7%

Jobless rate
9% in 2020
8.8% in 2021
according to Commonwealth Bank of Australia
#Australia #recession #GDP

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… 🇦🇺 Australian employment falls further, intensifying labor market stress

Government predicting unemployment to climb above 13% by the end of September, from a 22-year high of 7.5% in July.
#Australia #recession

uk.reuters.com/article/us-aus…
Aug 24, 2020 • 8 tweets • 10 min read
Recent PMI data in one thread

🇪🇺 Eurozone
🇺🇸 US
🇯🇵 Japan
🇩🇪 Germany
🇬🇧 UK
🇫🇷 France
🇦🇺 Australia

#EuroZone #US #Japan #Germany #UK #France #Australia #PMI #economy #recession 🇪🇺 Eurozone growth loses momentum in August

PMI Composite 51.6 (54.9 in July)
Services PMI 50.1 (54.7)
Manufacturing PMI Output 55.7 (55.3)
Manufacturing PMI at 51.7 (51.8)
#EuroZone #PMI #recession

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
Aug 12, 2020 • 8 tweets • 7 min read
UK economy slumps 20% in second quarter, unemployment fears mount

Economy shrank by a record 20.4% between April and June, the largest contraction reported by any major economy so far, with a wave of job losses set to hit later in 2020.
#UK #recession

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-hea…
Aug 11, 2020 • 19 tweets • 20 min read
China bank failure fires warning shot at financial markets

Liquidation of the municipal lender raises borrowing costs for small peers and push more of them on the brink

#Economy still wobbling, it’s a risky time to cleanse the system
#China #recession

reuters.com/article/us-chi… PBOC’s Attempt to Exit Crisis Mode Faces a $500 Billion Test

#China’s banks need $500 billion in fresh #liquidity this month to roll over existing #debt and buy government bonds, complicating the PBOC’s efforts to exit crisis measures.
#recession

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
Aug 7, 2020 • 9 tweets • 10 min read
A partial snapshot of the thousands of corporate entities that have landed in bankruptcy court since March.

It doesn’t capture the countless businesses that closed shop permanently without seeking protection in court.
#US #recession #bankruptcies

bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-… 72,842 businesses permanently closed, out of the 132,580 total closed businesses

Permanent closures now accounting for 55% of all closed businesses
#US #recession

yelpeconomicaverage.com/yea-q2-2020.ht…
Aug 6, 2020 • 14 tweets • 13 min read
“Ultimately with gold you can’t print any more of it, you can’t artificially create it. It will hold its value”

Central banks keeping interest rates low and pumping money into markets, even an economic rebound, would help gold
#Gold #recession

reuters.com/article/us-gol… Gold ETF holdings are booming and only the U.S. government holds more

Investors are so concerned about the global outlook that holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded funds now stand behind only the official U.S. reserves of bullion
#Gold #recession

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
Jul 30, 2020 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Auto industry puts brakes on central Europe's recovery

“Sector is expected to suffer the biggest drop in the manufacturing sector in the region. This is where the recovery will be the slowest so it could be one of the main drags on GDP”
#recession #GDP

reuters.com/article/us-eas… Volkswagen cuts dividend as first-half profits plunge

Operating loss of 800 million euros and 27% drop in vehicle deliveries forced the carmaker to slash its dividend.

Volkswagen predicted a significant decline in full-year sales from 2019 levels

reuters.com/article/us-vol…
Jul 24, 2020 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Chinese electric cars use aggressive pricing to undercut Tesla

Chinese electric-car makers are trying to give Tesla a run for its money, launching models with aggressive prices meant to undercut the sales leader.
#China #US #Tesla #recession #StockMarket

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image Tesla quarterly revenue beats, deliveries misses

Revenue rose to $5.99 billion from $4.54 billion.
Expected $5.90 billion.

Deliveries 88,400 vehicles.
Expected 93,399 vehicles.

uk.reuters.com/article/tesla-…

uk.reuters.com/article/tesla-…