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GnS Economics Profile picture
@GnSEconomics
Sep 4, 2020 • 4 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
BIS warns of Zombies
#recession #economy
"Zombie firms’ productivity declines as leverage rises"

The zombie share peaked in 2010 at 16% and declined in the subsequent recovery by a mere 2 percentage points. Since 2015 the share of zombie companies is already rising again

Probability of a zombie remaining a zombie in the following year rose to 85% in 2017
#recession #economy Image
🇯🇵 Bank of Japan’s loan programs risk revival of zombie firms

“Longer the support goes on the greater the risk that zombie firms will be”

“Once the economy starts recovering, what used to be good policy can become overkill”
#Japan #recession

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image

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More from @GnSEconomics

GnS Economics Profile picture
Oct 5, 2020
September #PMI thread (August in brackets) 1/8
🇪🇺 #Eurozone
🇩🇪 #Germany
🇫🇷 #France
🇮🇹 #Italy
🇪🇸 #Spain
🇬🇧 #UK
+ Note on how to read PMI
#economy #recession
🇪🇺 Eurozone PMI 2/8

“With the eurozone economy having almost stalled in September, the chances of a renewed downturn in the fourth quarter have clearly risen"

Composite 50.4 (51.9)
Services 48.0 (50.5)
#Eurozone #PMI

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr…
🇩🇪 Germany PMI 3/8

"Growth in the German service sector slowed to a crawl in September, as the rebound in activity from the COVID-19 lockdown continued to lose steam"

Services 50.6 (52.5)
Composite 54.7 (54.4)
#Germany #PMI

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr…
Read 8 tweets
GnS Economics Profile picture
Oct 1, 2020
🇪🇺 Eurozone #Manufacturing #PMI

#Eurozone manufacturing growth strongest for over two years, 53.7 (August 51.7)

🇩🇪 #Germany 56.4
🇮🇹 #Italy 53.2
🇳🇱 #Netherlands 52.5
🇦🇹 #Austria 51.7
🇫🇷 #France 51.2
🇪🇸 #Spain 50.8
🇬🇷 #Greece 50.0
🇮🇪 #Ireland 50.0

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
🇩🇪 #Germany #Manufacturing #PMI

Sharp increases in output and new orders at end of third
quarter. Job shedding slows, but stocks show further steep declines.

September Manufacturing PMI 56.4 (August 52.2)

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
🇫🇷 #France #Manufacturing #PMI

Business conditions improve amid faster rise in
production. Fractionally quicker increase in new orders
supported by export growth.

September Manufacturing PMI 51.2 (August 49.8)

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
Read 8 tweets
GnS Economics Profile picture
Sep 24, 2020
September 2020 flash PMI in one thread, in following order

#US 🇺🇸
#UK 🇬🇧
#EuroZone 🇪🇺
#Germany 🇩🇪
#France 🇫🇷
#Japan 🇯🇵
#Australia 🇦🇺

+Note on diffusion indexes like the purchasing managers indexes, or #PMIs.

#economy #recession #recovery
🇺🇸 #US #PMI September 2020 (August)

Solid rise in private sector business activity in September

Composite Output 54.4 (54.6)
Services Business Activity 54.6 (55.0)
Manufacturing PMI 53.5 (53.1)
Manufacturing Output 53.3 (52.7)

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
🇬🇧 #UK #PMI September 2020 (August)

Recovery loses momentum and business outlook drops to its weakest since May

Composite Output 55.7 (59.1)
Services Business Activity 55.1 (58.8)
Manufacturing Output 59.3 (61.0)
Manufacturing PMI 54.3 (55.2)

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
Read 9 tweets
GnS Economics Profile picture
Aug 30, 2020
🇩🇪 Longer suspension on #insolvency filings masks credit risk that explodes into wave of #bankruptcies when the moratorium ends

Also nurtures zombie companies that hold back investment and innovation and act as a drain on the #economy
#Germany #recession

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
“Zombie companies” are not a new phenomenon

They restrict the entry of new, more productive companies, diminish job creation in the economy and lock capital into unproductive uses. In a word, they are a menace to the economy and society
#recession

gnseconomics.com/2019/03/11/the…
World economy will follow the “Way of Japan” 🇯🇵

Central bankers will take an active (in practice, permanent) role in the financial markets. The hope is that this would keep the global asset bubble inflated and the world economy going
#recession

gnseconomics.com/2019/03/18/the…
Read 4 tweets
GnS Economics Profile picture
Aug 27, 2020
🇺🇸 🇯🇵 🇩🇪 🇫🇷 🇮🇹 🇪🇸 🇬🇧 🇨🇦 🇸🇪 🇰🇷
Reverse recovery

"The economic rebound in major advanced economies is stalling or even reversing"
#US #Japan #Germany #France #Italy #Spain #UK #Canada #Sweden #SouthKorea #recession

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
#Norway Image
Read 4 tweets
GnS Economics Profile picture
Aug 25, 2020
🇦🇺 Australia’s recession longest since 1982-83, unemployment remain elevated due to a tepid recovery

GDP 2020
Q1 -0.3%
Q2 -6%
Q3 -0.7%

Jobless rate
9% in 2020
8.8% in 2021
according to Commonwealth Bank of Australia
#Australia #recession #GDP

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇦🇺 Australian employment falls further, intensifying labor market stress

Government predicting unemployment to climb above 13% by the end of September, from a 22-year high of 7.5% in July.
#Australia #recession

uk.reuters.com/article/us-aus…
High household debt poses risk to spending

🇦🇺 Australians racked up enormous debts as rising incomes and falling interest rates allowed them to take out larger mortgages to pursue escalating property prices
#Australia #debt #recession

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
Read 4 tweets

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