Thread by @DesoGames

BREAKING: Retail Participation in markets is topping out!

Well not really breaking news but i barely ever get to use that, so :D

First some charts (that confirmed my theory), then i'll explain to ya how i came by the info:

So, one of the YT channels i follow is Meet Kevin (to keep up to date with stimulus and real estate). And i was watching this video, when i heard something interesting:



Specifically, about his sponsor, WeBull.

He's had that sponsor for a long time, so i can chart the behavior of that sponsor VS market conditions at the time.

During that peak in the search trend, WeBull was offering 2 free stocks - an offer that was about to expire and extended on the deadline (AKA FOMO scarcity).

After extension of 2 free stocks, later they began offering 3 free stocks, no time frame.

Now one event does not a pattern make so that could be from increased competition.

However at the start of that video, WeBull just upped the offer to 4(!) free stocks!

Not to advertise for them stay the FUCK away from CFD traders. Get a proper broker and buy shares. You Americans have *no idea* how restricted you are financially compared to the rest of the world.

Anyway. It peaked my interest. No company gives things away for free.

If i recall correctly the "possible value" of the stocks went up from $1200 to $1600 too.

There's always an angle. In this case it's obvious - drive more traffic.

But WHY would they NEED to drive more traffic?

The market went nowhere for months so i understand the 3 stocks.

But the Dow Jones is up 3800 points in 2 weeks!

(yes - that actually shocked me a bit too when i looked that up)

Point is, if FOMO was going to return it should've been back now. It may not have been *as sharp* as in March, but the move is equal in points to march 23rd-26th.

But FOMO isn't here.

In Google Trends, even if WeBull showed an uptick before it shows a projected downtick that matches RobinHood.

The overall trendline of both platforms is also exactly the same, peaking in popularity at the end of June and showing a crescent moon downwards.

Their own behavior confirms this. No company gives things away for free. They're upping their "free" offer because they *need* to.

Because competition in the space is fierce and they're all competing for the same scarce resource: NEW users.

Which now seems to be in short supply

In Short;

If there *isn't* going to be stimulus before the holiday season, the market will likely crash.

Retail is losing interest, there's tax reasons to take profits and they'll want money for Christmas.

The problem is i don't know if stimulus will actually bring retail back

Because again conditions have changed.

The previous stimulus was AHEAD of months of forbearance. If anything 2020 shoulda taught us is that people are horrible at planning (far) ahead.

But Forbearance and Deferrals end start of January. MANY people are behind on alot of bills.

That's a little bit too close for comfort.

And i veeeeery much doubt the 2021 Tax season will be delayed again. The US government needs revenue more than anybody right now. Biden wanted to raise taxes, remember?

Which in itself is another drain on the markets.

You're not going to invest if the Capital Gains tax is going to double.

Well, you MIGHT, But not with the Dow Jones AT 30k. Because you *need* to make more money to overcome the tax burden to gain an equal amount of capital as before.

Fancy words or no every person feels this.

So.

It may be hidden beneath the surface.

But IMO these are some first signs of the market top coming in.

I'll leave ya with a picture i made; "Anatomy of a bubble" only then improved for a historical event :D

And as i read the google trends - We're about to hit Reality.