I needed a distraction after i hit that pile of bad memories and had a little panic attack; So i decided to make another crypto chart ^_^
Maybe this shows better *why* i don't trust Bitcoin volume as measured in trades instead of dollars.
It doesn't line up with the price spike
Peter Lynch in his 1994 speech said "Stocks aren't lottery tickets.... Coca Cola is earning 30 times what it did 30 years ago, its price has gone up 30 times. Bethlehem steel earns half as much as it did 30 years ago, the share price is half."
Well Crypto runs on Pure Demand.
IOTA is more reliable in price action because it's a private network with no ability to print more money AND it's an alt coin with a smaller market cap. Meaning it's out of the public eye, including Tether's eye.
And while Bitcoin might not be able to print more, Tether sure is.
The key here is that Tethers can be EXCHANGED for Bitcoin, and Bitcoin/Tether can in turn be exchanged for Dollars. Yes, they could pump up IOTA too by hoarding it - but the market cap is small which has no effect on a now $18 billion scam, and is way too suspicious anyway.
My point being. IOTA can be trusted to run on actual demand at this point in time.
And the chart *clearly shows* *what* price action goes with *what* increase or decrease in volume.
The volume and price trends are clearly identical in angle of the line. This is all expected.
Bitcoin shows the *exact same behavior* BUT! only outside of price spikes.
If you eliminate just 4 months from that multi year bitcoin chart, the pattern lines up again.
Meanwhile, the volume trend *never deviated* from the mean, until *very* recently.
Furthermore, EACH deviation in 2020 *followed* a spike in price, *it did not lead the rise in price*.
In other words;
Because the price went up, more people went looking for it.
Instead of;
The price went up because more people looked for it and bought it after consideration.
The google trends search volume chart that everybody is so fond of linking does not show this behavior THROUGHOUT 2017.
It's not enough to see an uptick. In 2017, search volume matched the price uptick for uptick, sometimes even frontrunning it.
That is NOT the case today!!
People think i'm against crypto in general and i'm not. I'm against there being 4064 of em now on investing.com.
A few of em undoubtedly have value.
But we're never gonna find out which ones without a good ol' fashioned Purge.
And Tether/Bitcoin will lead the way.
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SKIP THE BITCOIN PART! I'm not gonna have the value discussion here. We can all agree that there have been plenty of scams in history involving value. If you love bitcoin you'd want it to be scam free.
First off; Tether printed another 71,500,000 tether last night. Nice round number. Very organic. They printed 96,399,401 yesterday, what's that all about then?
Printed ~$500 million last 7 days, annualized $25,6 billion, down from $35B. Guess the rising price attention helps.
BREAKING: Retail Participation in markets is topping out!
Well not really breaking news but i barely ever get to use that, so :D
First some charts (that confirmed my theory), then i'll explain to ya how i came by the info:
So, one of the YT channels i follow is Meet Kevin (to keep up to date with stimulus and real estate). And i was watching this video, when i heard something interesting:
Specifically, about his sponsor, WeBull.
He's had that sponsor for a long time, so i can chart the behavior of that sponsor VS market conditions at the time.
During that peak in the search trend, WeBull was offering 2 free stocks - an offer that was about to expire and extended on the deadline (AKA FOMO scarcity).
This time, captured it LIVE! (just happened to realize i was checking at the right time).
Top numbers took longer to update, so added em myself. +33 mil tonight, interesting.
Think that's cause it's a Saturday. Markets are quiet.
In order to buy bitcoin for tethers somebody's still gotta trade the #bitcoin for tethers.
Currently they're fine that as #Tether's become the medium of exchange between #crypto.
Point is, with less market participants, less people willing to sell their crypto for Tethers.
BTW i'm also suspecting them of generating much of the bitcoin and tether volume in dollar terms themselves. If they'd move #crypto between accounts the they own on the exchange, it'd show up in the charts as volume. Since trade volume is low, they'd be pretty big block trades.