Tim White Profile picture
15 Mar, 10 tweets, 5 min read
1/9
Which countries are the worst liars when it comes to #Covid19 deaths (and which are the most honest)?

There's no definitive way of stating, but analysis of excess deaths is a guide to the real extent of #Coronavirus

I've worked out official deaths as a % of excess deaths..
2/9
This is the best way to expose clear cheating.
But it's not perfect

Many nations suspected of underplaying #Covid19 deaths don't declare mortality data, notably India, Indonesia and Turkey, though for the latter two stats are available for the biggest cities Jakarta/Istanbul
3/9
Data are the latest available for each country but e.g. while Peru, Spain, UK are right up to date, others are >6 months old.

Some nations have negative excess deaths, e.g. Taiwan, New Zealand, Thailand, Australia, Japan, Iceland, Norway.
Having lockdowns, mask wearing etc
4/9
..will reduce deaths from traffic accidents & 'flu. So even if there are some #Covid19 deaths it's easy to see how deaths in a nation not badly hit by the virus will be lower than normal.

So while those nations are honest, I'll restrict this to nations with excess deaths
5/9
So top of the list for "hiding" #Covid19 deaths is #Uzbekistan which had almost 20,000 excess deaths at its last update while claiming only 590 virus deaths at that point. That's 3%.

Next is Belarus with 390 official Covid deaths but over 6,000 extra deaths (6.4%)
6/9
Here's my top 10 #Covid19 "death-deniers"

1 Uzbekistan 3%
2 Belarus 6%
3 Egypt 8%
4 Indonesia (Jakarta only) 12%
5 Kyrgyzstan 16%
6 Russia 17%
7 Bolivia 21%
8 Serbia 23%
9 Albania 24%
10 Slovakia 35%
7/9
Surprisingly lower down the list of under-reporters of #Covid19 deaths:
27th place Turkey 64%, but this is only based on data for Istanbul

Excess Death data is from @TheEconomist's regularly updated list
8/9
Here are some of the countries apparently most honest about #Covid19 deaths; figures being higher than excess deaths.

The roll of honour among countries of >1m
1 Denmark 201%
2 Israel 127%
3 UK 113%
4 Chile 112%
5 Sweden 111%
9/9
So when Serbia had 4,000 #Covid19 deaths it was only 23% of excess deaths, yet Sweden had 12,400 Covid deaths, but 111%

Sweden's been massively criticised but it seems likely Serbia's had many more Covid deaths even though its population is much smaller

Understand the data!

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More from @TWMCLtd

14 Mar
Sunday's #Coronavirus megathread will, as always, be updated throughout the day with news, data and analysis.

Few paid attention while we warned of rising #Covid19 cases in the Balkans then central Europe. Now everyone's concerned as big nations suffer.

Come inside folks!
And I'll start with Europe's biggest nation (in population), #Germany

A further 27% rise in #Covid19 cases confirmed overnight with 10,572 new infections for Saturday vs 8,311 the week before.
#Brazil's been the focus of much attention of late as deaths soar.

The number of people who were reported to have died of #Covid19 yesterday actually dipped, but only because it's the weekend. In fact 1,940 deaths is 30% higher than last Saturday's 1,498

New cases: 70,934 (+5%)
Read 28 tweets
13 Mar
The daily #Coronavirus thread is underway.

If Friday turned out to be fearful, we can only hope it's not a shocking Saturday.

More and more countries and regions heading back into lockdown as #Covid19 spreads quicker then the vaccines.

And already today new record - read on..
The first record to report is from crisis-torn #Brazil

For the 3rd successive day over 2,000 deaths.
But it's new #Covid19 cases rewriting the record books today with 84,047 positive tests, that's 12% more than the week before

2,152 more deaths takes total fatalities over 275k
Almost a record for #Norway too tonight.

905 new #Covid19 infections diagnosed in the last 24 hours, just 25 below the national record. Today's total is 31% up on the previous week.

Over 300 more Covid patients have been admitted to hospital in the last 2 days alone.
Read 42 tweets
1 Dec 20
#Coronavirus thread for Tuesday as #Croatia, #Finland #Slovakia face new problems and #Russia has the blackest day so far in the pandemic.

But #Poland and #USA have better days

All the #Covid19 news and analysis throughout the day is here...
Let's start with #Russia, which earlier today registered it's 40,000th death from #Covid19 related problems.

Today's death toll of 569 is by far the highest so far admitted to by the Kremlin, beating the old record by 45

New cases remain fairly stable at 26,402
#Hungary looked to be heading for a 3rd #Coronavirus peak, but slightly more encouraging news today

The daily total of 3951 new cases of #Covid19 is only 22 up on last Tuesday, but I suspect more problems ahead; Thursday will be crucial

Also today, 2nd highest death toll of 154
Read 29 tweets
30 Nov 20
Later than usual let me bring you up to date with Monday's #Coronavirus news in the daily thread.

In the #UK, the devolved Welsh government has tightened restrictions just as England prepares to come out of lockdown.

Plenty of warning signs of a #Covid19 resurgence in Europe
I wait with interest data from #USA today after the holiday weekend.

We've had 4 days of significantly lower new cases of #Covid19 infections and no one really knows how things will be as things settle down.
Warnings from Europe come from #Germany & #Belgium

Germany's falls have slowed; they could be in danger of seeing cases rise again this week

Brussels has already announced a 2nd successive daily rise: 2,151 new #Covid19 cases today, the infection rate is up from 210 to 220 AD/M
Read 21 tweets
29 Nov 20
Across #Belarus another Sunday protest march, and more inhumane actions from the regime. Here a guy, seemingly unconscious is hauled away, his head almost on the snowy ground, to be dumped next to an unmarked police van
Security forces in #Belarus firing shots, but people are brave and don't flee this time.
Once again Lukashenko's muppets seem out of control in #Minsk
#Belarus protests continue as the snow falls.

credit: @Belsat_TV
Read 9 tweets
29 Nov 20
Sunday's #Coronavrus thread starts with developments in the #USA

Fewer testing centres open, fewer labs analysing results and fewer people wanting to be tested over the long holiday weekend, so as expected the drop in #Covid19 infections continues.

143,373 new cases, down 32k
There were signs the #Covid19 case load in #USA was about to naturally lower before Thanksgiving, so whether infections bounce back to previous levels remains to be seen.

Now a new worry as another mink outbreak is discovered in #Oregon

#Bulgaria and #Czechia continue to see case numbers fall

Bulgaria's finally getting good downward momentum with just 1,792 new #Covid19 infections overnight, down almost 500.

Czech Republic's fall is lower than of late, with 2,665 cases which is 522 fewer than last Sunday
Read 21 tweets

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