Thread by @TWMCLtd

1/9
Which countries are the worst liars when it comes to #Covid19 deaths (and which are the most honest)?

There's no definitive way of stating, but analysis of excess deaths is a guide to the real extent of #Coronavirus

I've worked out official deaths as a % of excess deaths..

2/9
This is the best way to expose clear cheating.
But it's not perfect

Many nations suspected of underplaying #Covid19 deaths don't declare mortality data, notably India, Indonesia and Turkey, though for the latter two stats are available for the biggest cities Jakarta/Istanbul

3/9
Data are the latest available for each country but e.g. while Peru, Spain, UK are right up to date, others are >6 months old.

Some nations have negative excess deaths, e.g. Taiwan, New Zealand, Thailand, Australia, Japan, Iceland, Norway.
Having lockdowns, mask wearing etc

4/9
..will reduce deaths from traffic accidents & 'flu. So even if there are some #Covid19 deaths it's easy to see how deaths in a nation not badly hit by the virus will be lower than normal.

So while those nations are honest, I'll restrict this to nations with excess deaths

5/9
So top of the list for "hiding" #Covid19 deaths is #Uzbekistan which had almost 20,000 excess deaths at its last update while claiming only 590 virus deaths at that point. That's 3%.

Next is Belarus with 390 official Covid deaths but over 6,000 extra deaths (6.4%)

6/9
Here's my top 10 #Covid19 "death-deniers"

1 Uzbekistan 3%
2 Belarus 6%
3 Egypt 8%
4 Indonesia (Jakarta only) 12%
5 Kyrgyzstan 16%
6 Russia 17%
7 Bolivia 21%
8 Serbia 23%
9 Albania 24%
10 Slovakia 35%

7/9
Surprisingly lower down the list of under-reporters of #Covid19 deaths:
27th place Turkey 64%, but this is only based on data for Istanbul

Excess Death data is from @TheEconomist's regularly updated list

8/9
Here are some of the countries apparently most honest about #Covid19 deaths; figures being higher than excess deaths.

The roll of honour among countries of >1m
1 Denmark 201%
2 Israel 127%
3 UK 113%
4 Chile 112%
5 Sweden 111%

9/9
So when Serbia had 4,000 #Covid19 deaths it was only 23% of excess deaths, yet Sweden had 12,400 Covid deaths, but 111%

Sweden's been massively criticised but it seems likely Serbia's had many more Covid deaths even though its population is much smaller

Understand the data!

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