Today marks 2yrs since the territorial defeat of #ISIS's proclaimed 'Caliphate' in #Syria & #Iraq.
Militarily, the group remains engaged in a pre-planned decentralized insurgency, which is sustaining a steady tempo in #Iraq & #SDF areas & a clear *resurgence* in central #Syria.
Militarily, the group remains engaged in a pre-planned decentralized insurgency, which is sustaining a steady tempo in #Iraq & #SDF areas & a clear *resurgence* in central #Syria.
The D-#ISIS Coalition has done all the right things thus far, but a disinvestment in #Iraq or #Syria would unquestionably benefit #ISIS's long-term plan (which we've seen play out before: 2010-14).
The deviation here is #Assad-held central #Syria -- a zone of deep, deep concern.
The deviation here is #Assad-held central #Syria -- a zone of deep, deep concern.
As analysts like @GregoryPWaters have shown, #ISIS is engaged in a methodical/sustained resurgence in central Syria -- where pro-#Assad forces have proven incapable of containing, let alone defeating a dispersed desert insurgency.
Tempo/potency/scope are consistently increasing.
Tempo/potency/scope are consistently increasing.
@GregoryPWaters Eventually, the vacuum being exploited increasingly effectively by #ISIS in central #Syria is going to spillover into the east & across into #Iraq -- that by now seems inevitable.
It's yet another sign of the consequences of continued #Assad rule & why a U.S. presence is vital.
It's yet another sign of the consequences of continued #Assad rule & why a U.S. presence is vital.
@GregoryPWaters Beyond the military sphere, the 'elephant in the room' is the 10,000+ #ISIS militant detainees & almost 100,000 associated family members & residents now confined to makeshift prisons & vast detainment camps in northeast #Syria.
This is a gift to #ISIS -- it's as simple as that.
This is a gift to #ISIS -- it's as simple as that.
@GregoryPWaters The international community has a collective & individual duty to deal with its respective citizens in #Syria -- abandoning them to an unknown fate or revoking their citizenship is irresponsible & a profoundly detrimental move in what is, at its core, a global battle of ideas.
@GregoryPWaters The #ISIS fight in #Syria & #Iraq is a long way from over, even if our goal is limited to rendering #ISIS into a weak, containable threat.
And crucially, #ISIS doesn't exist in a vacuum -- it feeds on state weakness, sectarianism, ethnic strife & poverty: all of which is *rife.*
And crucially, #ISIS doesn't exist in a vacuum -- it feeds on state weakness, sectarianism, ethnic strife & poverty: all of which is *rife.*
@GregoryPWaters And globally, let's set the record straight here: by retaking #Baghouz on March 23, 2019, we didn't defeat #ISIS's Caliphate -- it's now a (1) global, (2) transnational & (3) psychological phenomenon that's expanding far quicker than it's being reversed.
In #Africa it's surging.
In #Africa it's surging.
@GregoryPWaters While it faced challenges in #Syria/#Iraq, #ISIS was sowing seeds in conflict theaters worldwide & even inserting itself into some that had no previous Islamist or global jihadist agenda.
That "localization" is *the* preeminent trend in jihadism today & we're losing that fight.
That "localization" is *the* preeminent trend in jihadism today & we're losing that fight.
@GregoryPWaters Later this year, the U.S. will mark 20yrs since the 9/11 attacks -- and as we'll do so, we'll need to acknowledge a hard truth: that the terror threats we face today in 2021 are greater in number, more diverse in scope, & more potentially potent than at any time since 2001.
@GregoryPWaters In 20yrs, the U.S. has got very good at killing problems, but we've learned next to nothing about resolving the root causes & drivers of jihadist #terrorism & militancy -- it's not about 'defeating the ideology' (absurd), the issues are local, social, political, economic etc.
@GregoryPWaters This troubling reality means the 'fight' against terrorism has a long way to go -- the terrorists are learning & adapting faster than we are.
Along with @CTCWP & @CNSFordhamLaw, @MEI_CTE will be studying the next wave of terrorism & how to defeat it:
mei.edu/programs/count…
Along with @CTCWP & @CNSFordhamLaw, @MEI_CTE will be studying the next wave of terrorism & how to defeat it:
mei.edu/programs/count…
@GregoryPWaters @CTCWP @CNSFordhamLaw @MEI_CTE This very timely @MEI_CTE event is today -- in about 90mins.
Make sure to RSVP or watch the livestream on the @MiddleEastInst event page.
Make sure to RSVP or watch the livestream on the @MiddleEastInst event page.
https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1374154637666836481
@GregoryPWaters @CTCWP @CNSFordhamLaw @MEI_CTE @MiddleEastInst This 10-tweet thread by @Mister__Q_ does a superb job of laying out what #ISIS has become since it's "territorial defeat" in #Syria & #Iraq 2yrs ago:.
In short -- 5,795 attacks in 31 countries & a big surge in #Africa.
In short -- 5,795 attacks in 31 countries & a big surge in #Africa.
https://twitter.com/Mister__Q_/status/1374135236200693769
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