Exclusive -- the March 21 attack on the @UN-deconflicted al-Atareb hospital in NW #Syria involved the use of #Russian "Krasnopol" laser-guided artillery shells, guided precisely to their target by a Russian UAV.
Extensive analysis of munition debris shows a direct correlation.
@UN Shortly after the attack, doctors & rescue workers began recovering remnants of the shells that hit al-Atareb hospital.
In addition to the usual metal shrapnel, they found circuit boards -- a tell-tale sign of precision-guidance tech, in this case, in artillery shells.
@UN That piqued my interest & in the days since, employees of al-Atareb hospital (associated with @sams_usa) gathered all the shell debris, removed it to a safe site & photographed it for analysis.
It soon became clear we were looking at *certain* evidence of Krasnopol munitions.
With the #Biden administration settled in, there's a clear trend emerging in certain circles to swat away long-standing, complex foreign policy challenges -- and #Syria appears to be low-hanging fruit.
'#Syria doesn't matter,' some say... 'It was just never that important.'
It's good for there to be a debate -- & yes, 'great power competition' (#China, #Russia etc.) ought to be *the* priority.
BUT to shove #Syria aside as a minor inconvenience would be profoundly reckless, given the extraordinary costs it's inflicted on global stability since '11.
So far, arguments in favor of '#Syria doesn't matter' can be broken down into 2 camps:
(1) Those who ignore the profound past, current & future costs altogether - or worse - (2) those who astonishingly claim that #Assad, #Russia & #Iran can resolve the crisis & achieve stability
CC'ing Jan Egeland (@NRC_Egeland) here -- the chair of @antonioguterres's "Senior Advisory Panel" investigating the @UN's "deconfliction" mechanism intended to protect hospitals in #Syria.
@NRC_Egeland@antonioguterres@UN Shortly after the #SAA artillery strike on the al-Atareb hospital, rescue workers discovered remnants of the shells, which contained circuit boards -- this is an unusual detail that *could* indicate that the munitions were laser-guided & newly provided by #Russia.
Today marks 2yrs since the territorial defeat of #ISIS's proclaimed 'Caliphate' in #Syria & #Iraq.
Militarily, the group remains engaged in a pre-planned decentralized insurgency, which is sustaining a steady tempo in #Iraq & #SDF areas & a clear *resurgence* in central #Syria.
The D-#ISIS Coalition has done all the right things thus far, but a disinvestment in #Iraq or #Syria would unquestionably benefit #ISIS's long-term plan (which we've seen play out before: 2010-14).
The deviation here is #Assad-held central #Syria -- a zone of deep, deep concern.
As analysts like @GregoryPWaters have shown, #ISIS is engaged in a methodical/sustained resurgence in central Syria -- where pro-#Assad forces have proven incapable of containing, let alone defeating a dispersed desert insurgency.
@frontlinepbs@Martin28Smith#pt: It's no secret that #HTS has been pushing hard behind-the-scenes for opportunities to improve its image abroad -- first in outreach to researchers/institutes & more recently giving top access to highly-regarded media outlets.
And fwiw, PBS is one of several.
@frontlinepbs@Martin28Smith#pt: That #HTS is pushing this shouldn't come as a surprise -- the ingredients were put in place as far back as 2015, when a prolonged internal debate regarding the right path for Jabhat al-Nusra began. Clerical "lobby groups" got involved & then #JFS was created; then #HTS.
#Syria's regime appears to be facing a sharp increase in public criticism from across its population - people are exasperated at rife corruption & incompetence.
In lieu of this, secret police have been behind a spate of arrests targeting prominent critics, many of them #Alawite.
#pt: While some observers in the West [inaccurately] attribute #Syria's deep economic crisis to sanctions, #Assad's "loyalist critics" don't appear to be convinced -- they've been laying the blame squarely at the regime & parliament's doorsteps.
i.e. the propaganda is faltering.
#pt: No matter where you look in #Assad-held areas, the regime is clearly unable to provide, govern, secure or stabilize.
For the many Syrians who've stood by the regime since '11, their sacrificed 'blood & treasure' appear to have been merely for Bashar -- no reciprocal award.