This morning's cloud presentation of rain clouds over the #NileBasin watershed area in Ethiopia was busier than usual. The trend is continuing this afternoon with expanding thunderstorm activity over #Yemen#Somaliland, #Djibouti and #SouthSudan
Here you see the beginning of this event. It is much larger than earlier iterations of the same phenomena. These streams of air-born water are roughly 4000 kms long.
This tweet and the next three contain 10-day forecasts of the trajectory of this hydrological atmospheric phenomena. They forecast precipitable water, the quantity of water which is held in the atmosphere measured in inches.
An image of thunderstorm activity in the Ethiopian #Abbay#BlueNile basin this afternoon, also showing significant rains South #Yemen and over most of #Somalia.
Todays, 27th April, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast & #HornOfAfrica follow in the thread below.
#ArabianStorms activity was boosted today by moisture flowing from the #Ethiopian monsoon rains in the Ethiopian Highlands, the watershed of the #Abbay#BlueNile catchment.
Below you see a 10-day GFS forecast of accumulated rain over North Africa.
This animation shows the flows of moisture from this morning across the Red Sea. A process which is called the "Southern Gate" by Saudi weather entusiasts. #ArabianStorms#Abbay#BlueNile#GERD
Forecast weather parameters as at 7am [From @NOAA GFS computer model latest run] :
- High levels of précipitable airborn water, needed for storm
- High levels of CAPE (energy per kg of water) = unstable air = thunderstorm potential
The other factor is the rapidly rising temperature (animation here runs from midnight Monday to midnight Tuesday. The temperature peaks in the early - which is when we tend to see thunderstorm development rapidly accelerate.
26th April #NileBasin#MiddleEast accumulated rainfall forecast update. Today has seen a significant increase in thunderstorm activity from Uganda all the way north to Iran.
26th April 10 Day GFS model accumulated rain forecast across the ME and Africa. /2
26th April animation thread of clouds over the rainy part of the Nile Basin. The Clouds over Sudan, South Sudan and Western Ethiopia all contribute to the flow in the Nile River.