Maxim A. Suchkov Profile picture
Mar 7 19 tweets 10 min read
The conflict in #Ukraine is a collateral damage of a massive #US-#Russia crisis that has been brewing for years. Now that the conflict penetrates every political, economic and social level regionally and globally, it’s important to see what comes next. LONGISH THREAD.
I’m an academic,not my job to advise govs/ companies,but analysis of most global consultancies gets increasingly biased.Mine probably too.But I'd present the other side of the picture from what people get from MSM dominated discourse of things in #Ukraine &costs #Russia shld bear
1/ So, the new drastic sanctions on RUS were slapped & will hurt, esp in the long run. Numerous literature on it. Many talk about how energy markets will be effected, so I’m gonna skip this & say a few things about other, less discussed yet very important domains.
2/ Following sanctions on #Russia’s @Aeroflot_World & airspace,RU closed off its skies for Europe – they gotta take a detour. Shares of most EUR airlines fell from -6% to -32% due to increased costs.

Finnair doing particularly bad but not just that…
3/ A lot of rejoicing over how RUS planes that were on lease are seized, but there’re a lot of drawbacks on this as well, as I mentioned earlier
4/ #Moscow advises chemical enterprises to suspend export of methanol derivatives to Europe due to logistical issues.Methanol is raw material for pentaerythritol & urotropine. Share of RUS manufacturers in the EU market is 40% (pentaerythritol) and 50% (urotropine).
5/ Without going into scientific details - Europe’s polymer market will down the same pipe as the aviation.

Agriculture - #Russia will suspend the export of fertilizers to EUR until “normal transportation is resumed and deliveries are guaranteed”.
6/ Russia's Trade Ministry says that due to the sabotage of deliveries by some foreign logistics companies, farmers both in Europe and in other countries cannot receive the necessary volumes of fertilizer.

What is means is that..
.. on the eve of the sowing season, European (& American) farmers are left w/t Russian fertilizers. RUS share in the world market is a little less than a 1/3 of the world production of potash fertilizers, about 10% of nitrogen fertilizers & about 20% of complex fertilizers.
7/ How to fill the gap? The issue coulda been solved by fertilizers from #Belarus but it’s also under sanctions. In Ukraine, the sowing campaign is disrupted. That is, in 6 months the world food market, in particular wheat, has high chances of collapsing.
8/ #Russia is the world leader in the wheat market & what #US now does it seeks to cut RUS exports - this will only aggravate the situation.
The logistics is destroyed - impossible to take RU wheat to Europe. But it’s easy to take it China & they need a lot of it.
9/ BTW, once the sanctions were slapped, #India was smart enough to ensure the business with #Russia over fertilizers was done in bilateral curriences. So the East here exposes a smarter approach than the West. Not surprising.
10/ Semiconductors & computer chips are also interesting.
Today, #Russia accounts for 80 % of the market for sapphire substrates - thin plates made of artificial stone, which are used in opto- & microelectronics to build up layers of various materials, such as silicon.
They are used in every processor in the world - AMD & Intel are no exception.#Russia's position is even stronger in special chip etching chemistry using ultra-clean components. RUS accounts for almost 100% of the world's supply of some rare earth elements used for these purposes
11/ A ban on finished products for #Russia will result in a retaliatory ban on the supply of production components & will cause an acute shortage of processors for the whole world.
For more on that see (in RUS)…
12/ Other echoes:

Gas prices going up, just as Moscow expected them to:…
Diesel getting expensive:…
Energy bills in Europe rising:…
I dont rejoice any of this – people will lose jobs,have to live harder lives.Neither do I underestimate the gravity of the situation for RUS’s own economy.This is to say that next time you hear ppl say "Russia is a gas station w/ nukes" -judge yourself
13/ #Europe will lose in any case. #China is mixed bag.

#US likely a winner from this crisis - it’s role of a Western leader stronger,it benefits economically from Europe’s militarization & sanctions on #Russia. US, it profits from the conflict like it did from both WWI & WWII.
But the departure from US dominant world will be faster, so is the de-dollarization. US domestic integrity is also weak & this will be exploited. Regardless of how UKR settled, US-RUS standoff will continue & take dramatic forms – hopefully non-military.

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More from @m_suchkov

Feb 21
⚡️#Putin begins his address to the nation regarding his decisions on #Donbass
#Putin says a guide into history is necessary to understand where modern day events in #Ukraine stand, argues that today's Ukraine is a product of Bolshevik Russia, is a virtual assortment of different lands
Putin discusses Lenin principles of Soviet state & nation building,questions some decisions of the time ("not clear why did they [early-day Soviet leaders] seek to satisfy some nationalist ambitions"),adds the decisions were not senseless but concludes the principles were flawed
Read 21 tweets
Feb 3
.#Turkey's President #Erdogan came to #Ukraine for a meeting with #Zelensky. What's cooking here and how #Russia sees all of this? My THREAD. Image
1. @RTErdogan officially came w/ a “peacekeeping” mission, but no illusions in #Moscow of waht kinda olive branch he carries.
3 goals:
a) insert #Turkey in conflict to expand regional influence
b) sell more arms
c) access #Ukraine's tech market
2. #Turkey has arms to offer which #Ukraine needs – good overlap of interests here.
Bayraktars are what everyone focusesd on (+ #Ukraine built a plant to service them) but UKR interested in expanding the drone lineup,so it’s the Akinci drone that the parties may be discussing +..
Read 13 tweets
Jan 26
🔥⚡️Deputy Chairman of Foreign Affairs Commiitee of the #Russia/n Council of Federation (Senate): #US response to Russian security proposals does not satisfy #Moscow. RUS will prepare its own response within days & it will be prepared in consulations w/ partners including #China
Meanwhile,27 #Russia/n diplomats @RusEmbUSA are leaving #US today (28 more expected to leave during summer) upon #US decision
Amb.Antonov said @StateDept "made it clear that he himself would also have to leave by April if RUS fails to give visas to guards of US embassy in Moscow"
Top it off with the latest news that the investigation into the terrorist attack on board of a city bus in Voronezh in August 2021 (that killed 2 and left many wounded) discovered it might have been perpetrated by #Ukrainian special ops unit..
Read 6 tweets
Jan 21
#Lavrov on talks with @ABlinken: #US sought to put #Ukraine at the top of the negotiations agenda, but it seemed to me that at the end of th meeting they realized we'd eventually have to focus on the substance of [#Russia's] security proposals
#Lavrov on the meeting with @ABlinken: We believe that publicizing #US response to #Russia's security proposals would be a right thing to do, I'd ask Secretary #Blinken that we should do it
This is the key point that pundits,media,politicians in #US/#EU are missing about the situation w/ #Russia. It is not about #Ukraine or European security order/architecture. It's about #Russia's own security guarantees which #Moscow intends to ensure for itself with or w/out US
Read 5 tweets
Jan 10
My summary of #US - #Russia talks in #Geneva / THREAD
1. The talks went, by and large, as #Russia/n party expected it to go:
a) #US took most RUS proposals seriously, elaborated thru them;
b) US sought to tie RUS proposals to issues of strategic stability & missile deployments
c) US sought to make it “protracted negotiation process”
2.#Russia made clear it wasn’t interested in linking strat stability conversation to security guarantees conversation – at least in the way the #US wants it.
Ryabkov: “Legal guarantees on the issue of @NATO non-(further)expansion are of the prime significance for Russia”
Read 13 tweets
Jan 6
#Russia/n deployment to #Kazakhstan within CSTO mandate - THREAD
1/ Eurasian politics can be interesting:
Over the past 3 days the country that seemed the strongest in #CentralAsia almost turned into a failed state. #Putin sent troops to prop up the ruler who endorsed "multi-vector" foreign policy...
2/ ..and the decision had to be pronounced by #Armenia/n PM who himself came to power thru protests and who refused to turn to CSTO at the time his army was losing to #Azerbaijan
Read 20 tweets

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