Thread by @m_suchkov

.#Turkey's President #Erdogan came to #Ukraine for a meeting with #Zelensky. What's cooking here and how #Russia sees all of this? My THREAD.

1. @RTErdogan officially came w/ a “peacekeeping” mission, but no illusions in #Moscow of waht kinda olive branch he carries.
3 goals:
a) insert #Turkey in conflict to expand regional influence
b) sell more arms
c) access #Ukraine's tech market

2. #Turkey has arms to offer which #Ukraine needs – good overlap of interests here.
Bayraktars are what everyone focusesd on (+ #Ukraine built a plant to service them) but UKR interested in expanding the drone lineup,so it’s the Akinci drone that the parties may be discussing +..

3. +... joint coproduction of other arms on #Ukraine's territory.
#Turkey also needs accessories for their own weapons. Since has sought to diversify from #West/ern producers – recently with South Koreans - #Ukraine is a good palce to look at.

4. #Ukraine has a decent engineering school, (the remnants of the Soviet legacy which they now say was a curse) which #Turkey would benefit from. Ankara also allegedly has ambitions to buy "Motor Sich” JSC one of the largest engine manufacturers.

5. In 2020, #US pressured #Ukraine into refusing #China to buy the company,but allowing the sale to #Turkey 'd make sense from US standpoint & 'd satisfy all parties – except #Russia (but I guess that’s the idea). Ze & Erdo allegedly discussed the plans in one of earlier meetings

6. Finally, the #Crimea/n #Tatars aspect is there and it’s the political resource & leverage that #Turkey is always happy to work, but it falls into the first category – expanding political influence in the region.

7. What does #Russia think of all of this?
a. #Moscow gets the game that #Erdogan is playing but #Putin continues to stick to his philosophy that as long as he gets the game, Erdogan is “under control”.Needless to panic or escalate rels with Turkey over this – what’s it gonna do?

While greeting UKR forces earlier today #Erdogan shouted "Hail to #Ukraine!" No protocol requires that he shoulda done it, but it's seen as to tease #Moscow and this was well-noted.. no need to react.. at least not now.

8.b.The weapons #Turkey might supply to #Ukraine wouldn’t be a decisive factor should a war break out - the drone stuff been studied carefully by RU military in #Syria, #Karabakh,#Libya,Donbass.That the locals can’t deter it, doesn’t mean RU can’t deter it,if push comes to shove

9.BUT since major war unlikely, #Ukraine won’t even need to use it (at least not against #Russia), but might in some time resell it to someone.
UKR has a record of re-selling foreign arms to warlords / conflict zones, so I'd not be surprised to see it somewhere in MidEast shortly

10.Erdogan's effort to insert TUR into conflict – which partially worked in Karabakh (not the way TUR planned) will unlikely work in #Ukraine. #Russia only interested in #US.
BUT #Putin agreed to visit TUR after Olympics so TUR may not be entirely irrelevant to RU in this crisis

P.S. 1. On Ukraine being a global black market for arms
reuters.com/article/us-ukr…

2. On US pressure campaing on Ukraine over Motor Sich
wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/moto…

END.