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Apr 24 • 10 tweets • 14 min read
1/10) Prior to last week's #Uranium sector retreat😱 #Nuclear fuel consultants UxC & TradeTech forecasted deep multi-year U supply deficits with 200M lbs demand vs 135M lbs mined #U3O8 supply + 25M lbs of Secondary Supply that will be dropping due to pivot from #Russia⚠️ A🧵4U👇2
2) World #Nuclear Association was reporting 439 operable reactors (392 GW) + 56 more under construction (62GW)⚛️🏗️ with 26 expected to come online this year & next.⚡️🌞 96 more in advanced planning/ordered + 325 proposed🧾 for projected +2.6%/yr growth rate↗️🏗️🤠🐂 #Uranium🧵👇3
3) On Monday #Pakistan announced that a new 1100MW 'Hualong One' #Nuclear reactor built with #China had begun commercial operation⚛️⚡️ which will consume circa 0.5Million lbs of #U3O8 #Uranium per year delivering #CarbonFree #electricity for the next 60+ years.🌞🇵🇰⛏️🤠🐂 🧵👇4
4) On Tuesday, Biden admin launched a $6 Billion Civil #Nuclear Credit program aimed at preventing premature closures of economically at-risk US reactors.💰⚛️🚑 #Michigan's Governor is applying to prevent May closure of Palisades NPP=> more unexpected US #Uranium demand.⛏️🤠🇺🇸👇5
5) On Wednesday, #China announced approvals to build 6 new #Nuclear reactors this year that are expected to add around 7.5 Gigawatts of new #CarbonFree #electricity⚡️ that will consume about 3.5 Million lbs of #U3O8 #Uranium per year for 60+ years (>200M lbs total)🌞⚛️⛏️🤠🐂🧵👇6
6) On Wednesday #SouthKorea's new president-elect reaffirmed plan to reverse planned phaseout of the nation's 24 #Nuclear reactors↪️⚛️🇰🇷 announcing policy change to allow 18 reactors to be life-extended, adding about 8.3M lbs per year of future unanticipated #Uranium demand.⛏️👇7
7) On Thursday, #India announced that approvals had been given to begin construction of 2 more 700MW indigenous #Nuclear reactors that will deliver 1.4GW of #CarbonFree clean #electricity⚡️ consuming about 0.5 Million lbs of #U3O8 #Uranium per year for 40+ years.🇮🇳⚛️🏗️⬆️🤠🐂🧵👇8
8) On Thursday, #Poland received a first bid from #SouthKorea to build 8 new #Nuclear reactors of a combined capacity of 8.4 Gigawatts of #CarbonFree #electricity to support planned #coal exit🌞⚡️ consuming over 4 Million lbs per year of #Uranium #U3O8 for 60+ years⚛️🏗️⬆️⛏️🐂👇9
9)Last week Spot #Uranium was sucked down in a North American U #stocks & commodity meltdown🌪️ that shaved $8/lb off Ux #Uranium Futures Front Month contracts in an early "month-end smash"🔨 & panic selling😱 dropping to $56.60/lb⤵️🎆😲 🧵👇10
10)Take-away for the week:🥡 major growth in #Nuclear fuel demand⚛️⬆️ collides with drop in #Uranium price⛏️⬇️💥🔀 now >$20/lb below incentive U price to restart idle mines & build new ones, which further delays U supply response🐌 putting even more pressure on U supply/price🗜️🚀

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More from @quakes99

John Quakes Profile picture
Apr 5
Why has a Western pivot away from #Russia's #Uranium🇷🇺⚛️⛏️⛔️ triggered a chain reaction💥 of higher prices down the #Nuclear fuel cycle from enrichment SWU to conversion?🚀 Let me try to explain in a thread that lays out why #U3O8 & U #stocks are dominoes next in line.⏸️↗️➡️👇2
2) Both #USA & #EU rely on importing #Russia's #Uranium to provide about 20% of annual #Nuclear fuel requirements for their fleets of reactors, the 2 largest fleets in the world.⚛️ Reactor operators are now trying to lock in alternate fuel supply ASAP to fill that 20% gap.🛒 👇3
3) Majority of US/EU imports of #Russia's #uranium is in Enriched Uranium(EUP) with Russia having 43% of global enrichment capacity.🇷🇺 Utilities' first line of attack is to line up alternate enrichment, launching a steep rise in demand & price for enrichment SWU & UF6 feed.⬆️👇4
Read 9 tweets
John Quakes Profile picture
Mar 19
1) I see @BambroughKevin is saying we could see #Uranium prices skyrocket "2x-3x in just a couple of weeks as #USA is poised to ban Russian uranium".🤯 While impossible to accurately predict "how high"🌜🪐 here's a thread on why U prices would spike on a US/EU or Russian ban.👇2
2) Both #USA & #EU rely on importing #Russia's #Uranium to provide about 20% of annual #Nuclear fuel requirements for their fleets of reactors, the 2 largest fleets in the world.⚛️ A ban would force operators to find alternate sources ASAP to fill the resulting supply gap.🛒 👇3
3) Majority of US/EU imports of #Russia's #uranium is in Enriched Uranium(EUP) with Russia having 43% of global enrichment capacity.🇷🇺 If US/EU (or Russia) were to ban imports then first impact, I think, would be steep price rise for EUP, enrichment SWU & UF6 enricher feed.⬆️👇4
Read 9 tweets
John Quakes Profile picture
Mar 13
1) Long before #Russia, world's main enriched #Uranium supplier, sent shock waves thru #Nuclear fuel markets😱 by invading #Ukraine🪖 mined #U3O8 was already in a sustained deficit⬇️⛏️ with demand for #CarbonFree Nuclear surging.⬆️🏗️⚛️ A Uranium #investing thesis thread 4U🤠🐂👇2
2) #Uranium #mining #stocks are famous⭐️ for delivering investors extraordinary life-altering returns😎🍹🏝️ when they enter a boom cycle⤴️ after a long painful bear market for #Nuclear fuel😩 when supply/demand fundamentals shift🌊 as they have now in a strong bull market🤠🐂👇3
3) #Uranium is a cyclical commodity🔃 that goes through boom & bust cycles based on supply vs demand imbalances⚖️ magnified to extremes🌜 by supply security fears😟 as there is no substitute fuel for #nuclear reactors⚠️ so fear can lead to panic buying by nuclear utilities🛒👇4
Read 12 tweets
John Quakes Profile picture
Mar 12
1) #Uranium underfeeding/overfeeding🍼👶 what the heck is that?🤔 I'll try to explain in a thread that eliminates as much complexity as possible using a "Vending Machine" as a way to keep it plain & simple 😀🧵⬇️2
2) Most #Nuclear reactors can't run on raw #Uranium that comes out of a mine in the form of #U3O8.⛏️ They need fuel called Enriched Uranium Product (EUP) that's turned into small pellets that are loaded into fuel rods which in turn get loaded into reactors⚛️⚡️⬇️3
3) Imagine there are special EUP vending machines set up around the world where #Nuclear reactor fuel buyers walk up to a machine, select Quantity/Grade of EUP fuel they need🔘 & then insert the required quantity of mined #Uranium indicated for their order🪙⬇️4
Read 10 tweets
John Quakes Profile picture
Mar 6
#USA/#EU rely on #Russia's oil to meet 8%/27% of demand.😯 A ban on Russian oil means finding alternate sources to fill gap & moderate price rise.🎢 #USA & #EU also rely on #Russia for 20% of #Nuclear fuel supply.😱 A thread for U on banning that👇 .../2 wsj.com/articles/biden…
2) Majority of US/EU imports of #Russia's #uranium is in Enriched Uranium(EUP) with Russia having 43% of global enrichment capacity.🇷🇺 If US/EU (or Russia) were to ban imports then first impact, I think, would be steep price rise for EUP, enrichment SWU & UF6 enricher feed⬆️ ../3
3) A US/EU ban on #Russia's #uranium would require alternate enrichment plants in #USA & #EU to increase output ASAP.🏭 They've been in low demand, running with excess SWU capacity that's led to underfeeding & large secondary U supply⛏️ to lessen the #Nuclear fuel deficit.⚛️.../4
Read 7 tweets
John Quakes Profile picture
Jan 15
1) With many #Uranium Explorers now actively drilling in #Canada's #AthabascaBasin⛏️ perhaps it's time⏳ for a thread on how to interpret drill data🗒️ coming soon in news releases.📰 Misunderstanding data can lead to missed opportunities💰 or unexpected losses.😟 Be ready!👨‍🏫.../2
2) #Uranium explorers drill rock core samples looking for signs of #U3O8 bearing ore.🧐 Rarely do they hit high-grade on first few attempts.😟 Geologists first look for visual signs in the core samples. Here's description from pre-discovery 2013 drilling at $NXE's Arrow👇 .../3
3) Visual inspection of core samples is just 1 of many steps taken to see if #uranium is found. Presence of radioactivity is best indicator☢️ so all cores are scanned with an instrument called a Hand-held Scintillometer to produce "Scint" CPS tables for each core interval.🗒️.../4
Read 11 tweets

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