With the introduction of the Asset quality review in FY15-16, banks' asset quality has been under pressure. This was further aggravated by events such as demonetisation, GST, and the IL&FS crisis. As a result, the GNPA ratio for Banks rose to 11.2% in FY18 vs 4.3% in FY15. (3/8)
Since FY18, GNPAs have witnessed a gradual moderation supported by healthy recoveries via IBC and an improvement in the Corporate NPL cycle. (4/8)
As the banks focused on cleaning up the balance sheets GNPA’s started moderating to 6.9% in Sep’21 from 11.2% in FY18, despite the impact of the pandemic. (5/8)
The efforts of the banks were clearly visible, reflecting in the provision coverage ratios. The banking system made total provisions of Rs.16.5Lk Cr. over FY16-21 (3.4x higher) vs Rs.4.9Lk Cr. over FY06-15. (6/8)
Comfortable provisioning, the decline in credit costs, decrease in GNPA’s and improving profitability makes the private and public banks look extremely attractive. (8/8)
We saw that the commodity prices were increasing, reforms such as the Electricity Act came into play and government spending grew at a rapid pace of 23% CAGR. This led to overall growth in the capital cycle
M2 which is a broad measure of money supply, has grown 81% in the last 7yrs to nearly $20Trn. An increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates, which generates more investment and puts more money in the hands of consumers. Hence stimulating spending.
Bonds struggled during the last major stagflationary period, in the late 1960s. Rise in oil prices,unemployment, loose monetary policy pushed the core CPI Index to a high of 13.5%. The Fed had to raise interest rates by nearly 20%.
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