Thread by @HannaNotte

Yday, #Lavrov’s confirmation in #Cairo that #Russia seeks to “help the Ukrainian people to free themselves” from their regime gained - understandably -considerable attention in Western capitals.

But it might obscure other important aspects of #Lavrov’s visit to #Egypt. A 🧵1/14

There was much hype around #Putin meeting #Iranian & #Turkish leaders last week

But #Lavrov's engaged the Arabs extensively since Feb, visiting Algeria, Oman, Bahrain, Saudi. He also hosted other Arab FMs in Moscow

Now Egypt, where he also engaged the League of Arab States 2/14

This effort to engage evenly – Iran, Turkey, Israel, Arabs – is a long-standing feature of #Russia’s MENA policy, but will become more important in light of Western #sanctions.

Losing further friends would be costly, even in a region that’s of 2ndary importance to #Russia. 3/14

#Egypt is a huge Arab country, recipient of significant #US aid, but has cooperated more w/ #Russia under Sisi.

When I testified to Congress in May, there was great interest in how #US can end Egypt’s “balancing act”.

It touches a raw nerve in DC. foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearings?ID=4B… 4/14

But doing this ain't easy: #Egypt needs #Russia in the areas of 1. #grain (high dependence); 2. weapons (an interest in systems like Su-35s is rooted in an Egyptian dissatisfaction over what the #US doesn’t sell Cairo given a concern with Israel’s QME in the region),... 5/14

...3. tourism (when RUS tourists stopped going to #Egypt in late 2015, after a passenger plane was downed over the Sinai, it really hurt the Egyptian economy). 6/14

Last month, #Egypt’s Min. of Trade & Industry announced that Cairo will adopt a payment mechanism to allow use of Russian ruble in trade exchange with #Moscow.

Egypt was also a primary guest country at this year’s St Petersburg Int. Economic Forum al-monitor.com/originals/2022… 7/14

And then there’s El Dabaa, the 1st nuclear power plant #Rosatom will build in #Egypt.

While there were rumours in the spring that the project might be put on hold, the first concrete was reportedly poured at El Dabaa last week: neimagazine.com/news/newsfirst… 8/14

Will #Russia remain an attractive source of weapons/ NPPs to Egypt (& MENA) medium-term?

On the supply side #sanctions may impede its ability to offer 1) attractive financing & 2) repair/maintenance. On the demand side recipients might doubt performance of certain systems
9/14

I don’t think the jury's out on these questions - so watch that space.

But #Egypt’s general desire to "sit on the fence" re #RussiaUkraineWar will likely persist. Yday, Sisi spoke of "prioritising dialogue/diplomatic solutions" to settle the war.
english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/… 10/14

By the way, #Russian messaging in #Egypt on #RussiaUkraineWar has been consistent and aggressive, also appealing to anti-colonial sentiments in the country.

This kind of stuff on (social) media resonates and matters.

arabic.rt.com/world/1364252-… 11/14

Moreover, #Egypt is reportedly exploring #BRICs membership – another potential arena for closer coordination w/Russia al-monitor.com/originals/2022…

Remember, at a recent #BRICS meeting in June, Putin hammered home that the West was responsible for the global food crisis. 12/14

Bottom line: #Russia will continue its efforts at preserving/expanding influence w/countries like Egypt

And Egypt will be receptive to such efforts

This is not to overstate the potential for cooperation: not all MoUs & plans for cooperation materialize (see Russia-Iran)! 13/14

But #Russian successes at engaging across the Global South will matter -- INCREMENTALLY and CUMULATIVELY -- for the #West’s confrontation with #Russia over the medium- to long-term.

Including over #Ukraine.

14/14