Kyle Orton Profile picture
Jul 27 62 tweets 37 min read
Thread: 27 July 2022: Day 154 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia making "tactical advances" around the Vuhlehirska power station in Donetsk. Lavrov in Africa, long an interest of Moscow's, trying to blame the West for the food crisis.

Not happy with Wagner being defined as a "private military company"
#pt: "Wagner" is a unit of the #Russian military under GRU. The purpose of the "private military company" presentation is to make it "deniable" - to minimise the domestic political impact of losses and to distance Moscow internationally from its atrocities…
#Russia's government not making the aesthetic choices that might be expected when it is being criticised as "fascist".
#Uganda among the states in #Africa falling under #Russia's influence. This has resulted in nothing but misery (and military coups) everywhere else it has happened.…
Aftermath of #Ukaraine's HIMARS hitting the Antonovskiy bridge in #Russian-occupied Kherson.
Sanctions seem to be having a serious impact on #Russia.
#US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin gave verbal approval on 26 May, formalized on 29 June, for "up to 18 wounded [#Ukrainian] soldiers at a time at Landstuhl Regional Medical Center", the American military hospital in Germany.…
Jeremy Corby and his supporters even more blatantly have been reliably pro-Putin voices throughout all of this.
#Germany increasing its use of nuclear energy is such an easy, obvious economic and security gain - for the whole #EU and indeed #NATO. But politics is not a rational business, so we shall see how far this gets.
Training of #Ukraine on Iris-T SLM air defence units to start this week. A positive step, if long overdue.
It has taken many months but there does seem to be a growing recognition that the "far-Right problem" in #Ukraine is mostly with the #Russian invaders
The Twitter suspension system being gamed again to target those who counter #Russia's disinformation.
#Russia accidentally shot down one of their own Kamov Ka-52 helicopters in the Kherson Oblast of #Ukraine when trying to attack Ukrainian forces, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. Such helicopters cost $16 million. "A pity", indeed.
#Ukraine's Foreign Minister is not wrong. #Russia's state media is by definition an instrument of government policy - it's subversion, not free expression.
#Iran providing further assistance to #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine. Be interesting to know if #China is playing a role in this.
A look at where #Russians who have fled their country over the war on #Ukraine have ended up - and who they are. Overwhelmingly younger, anti-Putin, participated in anti-war activity, and followed Navalny's advice. 75% think things will get worse.
The Bolsheviks did not reverse Russia's decline. The Tsardom was rapidly liberalising and industrialising by 1917. The Communist takeover devastated the trajectory Russia was on and plunged it into penury and slavery of a kind unknown in its history.
#pt: Soviet apologists always did this: took production figures from Russia in 1917 and compared them to Soviet stats (which were lies anyway) in 1970/whatever. The true comparison, of course, is with what would have happened in 1970 had the Tsardom remained on course.
As ever with #Turkey, the Lord giveth (in the headline) and the Lord taketh away (in the details)
There is a definite element in the visceral hatred of #Russia's forces on the ground in #Ukraine of resentment and jealousy at finding a people they think of as inferior living in superior conditions. Explains in part the extent of the destruction.
That speech by #Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban has (rightly) drawn a huge amount of criticism across the West, including from some who usually defend his antics and even from within his own government. It really was a disgraceful business.
Again, not the aesthetics I would have gone with to counter accusations of "fascism".
#Ukraine has been asking for air defence systems since before #Russia invaded, and this is why. Horrible scenes down in Mykolaiv.
An example of the #NAFO Fellas at work, by @jabuttee
#Ukraine looking to isolate the #Russian forces occupying Kherson as a counter-offensive looms.
Very late in the hour, but must accept good news when it is available
Thread on the effect of #Ukraine's HIMARS on the Antonovskyi bridge in Kherson
The disgusting spectacle of #Russia's show trial of Brittney Griner rolls on.
#pt: For a flavour of how this "trial" in #Russia is being conducted. Brittney Griner is a straightforward hostage, being held and subjected to this public show trial to try to influence the #US's policies over #Ukraine.
More fun news for #Russia's useless air defence systems
#Russia has initiated another criminal case against oppositionist Vladimir Kara-Murza, who was close to the late Boris Nemtsov and serves as vice-chairman of Open Russia.
Rather an important fact to bear in mind: even if #Ukraine's President Zelensky could be convinced on "peace" that leaves #Russia occupying parts of his country - and there's no evidence he can be - he answers to a population firmly against any such thing.
This barely says anything clear, and what is clear is utter garbage, already disproven by events. Adds absolutely nothing to proceedings.
Never seen such contrived "outrage" in all my life. There are obviously some stupid people who actually believe the talking points attacking Zelensky and the First Lady over this. Many on here know the score and dislike it precisely for what it achieves.
#Ukraine's President Zelensky posts a picture on @instagram of him meeting Piers Morgan and says a video of their interview is to follow.

Increases ones admiration for Zelensky; the things he puts himself through to keep his country's cause before the eyes of the Western world.
Zelensky's face in the picture meeting Piers Morgan is ... interesting. Caption at will.
It was always pretty clear that #Russia wanted Viktor Bout back, and that is (at least part of the reason) why #Americans were taken hostage, first Paul Whelan and then Brittney Griner, whose "trial" was meant to hasten exactly a deal of this kind.
I thought it was common knowledge that #Russia's consulate in New York was a SIGINT hub, but a positive either way to close it down.
One had thought it was Geopolitics 101 not to incentivise hostage-taking against your own citizenry, but the Biden administration very much moves in its own way.
#France's President Macron was blunt in his speech in Cameroon about the way some in #Africa are behaving over #Ukraine: "This is a war launched by #Russia ... I see hypocrisy on the African continent [where states affect] not knowing how to qualify it."
Some fairly serious long-term damage being done to #Hungary's populace as the present government inculcated sympathy with #Russia and #China
#pt: A super-majority of the "Christian nationalist" ruling party in #Hungary are in favour of letting a foreign power descended from the League of the Militant Godless, that is #China's CCP government, run riot in their country
Igor Girkin, once #Russia's man in the Donbas, continues his public campaign against the Russian Defence Minister and some other officials, proposes trading them all to #Iran for the Iranian Defence Minister, who has shown a capacity for drone production.
Good thread: it is very clear #Hungary will not be joining the #NATO effort to prevent #Russia conquering #Ukraine, and Budapest's ruptured relations with #Poland follow from this: Orban sees Warsaw as behaving emotionally about an intra-Slavic war.
The "Come Back Alive" Foundation has raised enough to purchase a Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drone for #Ukraine.
In mid-June 2022, the #US State Department official for central/east Europe, Robin Dunnigan, asked #Hungary to expel #Russian spies under diplomatic cover. The Orban government refused, and instead complained about weapons shipments to #Ukraine.…
#Russia has managed an operational tempo in Donetsk that is rare in its war on #Ukraine, but even there the two axes of the offensive, towards Siversk and Bakhmut, are likely to be exhausted before any significant population centres fall to Russian troops.
Great piece on the #Soviet support, specifically through #Putin, to neo-Nazis in Germany, focused on Rainer Sonntag: instruments of political warfare and destabilisation in the Cold War got ideas of their own once the wall came down, and continue now.…
#pt: The #Soviets/Stasi "used neofascists to keep the left in check, and vice versa. [They] didn't want either side to control the streets; chaos was his preferred state." This has been #Russia's operating practice down to the present; promote and manipulate disorder.
#pt: Piece didn't mention (guess it was focused on the far-Right not far-Left, but ...) that the #Soviets not only ran the Baader-Meinhof Gang, but it was one of their agents, policeman Karl-Heinz Kurras, who shot and killed student Benno Ohnesor, igniting the whole thing.
#pt "Since the 1960s, Russian intelligence services have infiltrated neo-Nazi groups in the West and nudged them into extremist activity in order to promote false narratives about the rise of the far-Right in the West." It is unlikely this practice stopped…
Major Oleksandr Kukurba, 28, a combat pilot, head of intelligence of #Ukraine's 299th Tactical Aviation Brigade and a "Hero of Ukraine", was killed on 26 July while fighting against the #Russian invaders.…

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More from @KyleWOrton

Jul 28
Thread: 28 July 2022: Day 155 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: "#Ukraine's counter-offensive in Kherson is gathering momentum", with a bridgehead established south of the Inhulets River. Ukraine has used HIMARS to damage the bridges in and out of Kherson, leading Russia's 49th Army to look "highly vulnerable". Image
Congress has been briefed that #Russia has suffered 75,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in #Ukraine
Read 36 tweets
Jul 26
[1/2] #Ukraine's President Zelensky in his speech tonight noted #Russia's troop losses in his country; lauded the improving relations with Latin America (Chile, Paraguay, Costa Rica, and now Uruguay); and thanked @BorisJohnson for the Churchill Award and #Britain's support.
[2/2] Zelensky: The awards in #Britain and the #Netherlands are a reflection of the changed attitudes toward #Ukraine: "Our bravery is truly an inspiration for all free nations and the community of democracies ... Just imagine how inspiring the Ukrainian victory will be".
Read 19 tweets
Jul 26
Was saying to my housemate last night that it is strange that, when it comes to the schism in the British electorate/political class that Brexit exposed so sharply, Truss is on the "Brexit" side of it and Sunak is coded as the "Remainer". But it does make a certain kind of sense.
Brexit-as-policy faded once it was done; we're left now with Brexit-as-symbol, a marker of political instinct/tribe, class, and so on. And in that sense Sunak's libertarian, "Singapore-style" Brexit position is closer to the Remainers.
Who knows what Truss really believes, but in her public life, which is all you can judge a politician by, she accepted the referendum result, has said she was wrong to vote Remain, and worked in government to fulfil the things that most of the Brexiteers wanted.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 26
Thread: 26 July 2022: Day 153 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia launched missiles at Odesa Port on 24 July. Russia sees anti-ship missiles as "a key threat" constraining the Black Sea Fleet and undermining the overall invasion plan, by making a landing at Odesa something "Russia cannot realistically attempt". Image
The funny thing is that this narrative from #Russia's state television - that Sunak was rejected as Prime Minister in #Britain (as hopefully he will be) because of racism - will be the write-up of events in The New York Times, too.
Read 17 tweets
Jul 25
Sunak says #China is a "threat to our national security" and has "infiltrated our companies and steals" our property.

Truss says this is a convenient flip; as recently as a month ago, Sunak was advocating closer collaboration with the CCP.
Sunak notably caveats his new hawkishness on #China by saying there are areas that collaboration can continue, which is code for continuing to trying to profit from the CCP and provide it openings to exploit us.
Truss is plainspoken about cracking down on TikTok and generally changing things up with #China.
Read 6 tweets
Jul 25
Thread: 25 July 2022: Day 152 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: Ongoing "inconclusive fighting" in Donbas and Kherson: #Russia's "dilemma": devote resources to offensive in the east or defences against a #Ukraine counter-offensive in the west? Russia still struggling for manpower and extracting damaged equipment.
Eurovision 2023 to be held in UK on behalf of Ukraine - and search for host city has begun…
Read 31 tweets

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