Kyle Orton Profile picture
Jul 29 70 tweets 48 min read
Thread: 29 July 2022: Day 156 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update is on the "Wagner" unit, says its "new level of integration [with the #Russian Army in eastern #Ukraine] further undermines the Russian authorities' long-standing policy of denying links between PMCs and the Russian state". Which is British understatement Image
The #Biden administration continues denying #Ukraine weapons, in this case ATACMS surface-to-surface missiles, because of its deranged fear of #Russia "escalating", as if that is an actual Thing at this point.
A tribute to Oleg Moroz, a "cyborg" at Donetsk International Airport in 2014 who was awarded as a "Hero of Ukraine" posthumously for his personal courage in defending his area around Shchastya in the Luhansk Oblast during #Russia's invasion in February. armyinform.com.ua/2022/07/28/hro… Image
Another one for the "negotiate with #Russia" crowd. Even if it was not a shame and a disgrace to give in to Moscow's demands in #Ukraine, and even if doing so was not guaranteed to prepare a new round of war, the Russians simply are not interested in talks
Signs of support for #Russia in #Palestine, not that surprising given the history of Moscow's close relations with the PLO and the other terrorist groups controlled by #Iran. Image
The video that went around yesterday of #Russian soldiers castrating a #Ukrainian POW with a small knife was the revelation of a long-standing and widespread practice by the Russian Army, which succeeds at war crimes and little else
If you are able, you can donate to @Dmit_Petrovich's unit, which is fighting against the #Russian invaders in east #Ukraine and is running short of certain pieces of kit (binoculars, radios), using Paypal: kalyna784@gmail.com
Three-quarters of the way there, just need a little extra push
#China and #Russia advertising their alliance, yet still we are dealing with claims that there is some serious divergence in the interests of these two powers or that they can be handled separately.
Well said, @SonnyBunch, about the wilfully stupid reaction to #Ukraine's Zelensky meeting "celebrities" and participating in a "Vogue" photoshoot. This is how to reach Westerners now and a for a leader needing Western support, this is as serious as it gets
Roman Perimov, a #Ukrainian engineer, returned home, finding the tech team with "two old computers and a half-dead printer". Since then, with friends and outside donations, he has built a system to protect Starlink, down #Russian drones, and enable HIMARS. afr.com/technology/how…
"What drives people such as [Andrey] Liscovich, [Oleg] Rogynsky, [and] Perimov … is a passionate belief that … digital innovation is the key to winning both the war and peace. 'I am confident we will win the war. Israel is the model,' says Perimov."
Another thing the war on #Ukraine has clarified: "Wagner", to the extent it exists, is a unit of #Russia's military-intelligence apparatus. It's presentation as a "private military company" is to give the Kremlin political deniability.
#Russia in a very literal sense not interested in talking to the #US, even when it is being offered its own criminals back in exchange for the hostages it took exactly for this purpose.
#Ukraine's President Zelensky handed out "Cross of Military Merit" awards yesterday to those who had helped defend the country from the #Russian invaders. ImageImageImageImage
The divergence between living through the 2010s, where the consensus had #Germany and Merkel as the leading lights of the West, and how that period is already looked back on as paving the way for #Russia and #China to rampage, is rather stark.
#Britain still in the #EU would have been restrained by #Germany and #France's more pro-#Russia stance, which would have been even worse. The British-Polish-Baltic axis has shamed Berlin and Paris, providing the political pressure to get them to do what little they have done.
The governor of Mykolaiv in southern #Ukraine says a #Russian strikes on his city has killed four people and injured seven at a bus stop this morning - @AFP
#Russia has struck Kramatorsk in the north of the Donetsk Oblast in eastern #Ukraine.
Nothing #Russia says should be taken seriously, and when it comes to the mistreatment and massacre of #Ukrainian prisoners the Russian record should make this scepticism even sharper.
#Russia's state messaging continues to be somewhat below A1
#Ukraine's President Zelensky visited wounded soldiers at a hospital again today. Such visits, the awarding of medals, and Zelensky going to the front are a tremendous, visible morale boosts to troops, and help strengthen the civil-military relations of the state. ImageImageImageImage
One of the finest outputs from the #NAFO Fellas: "HIMARS - The Opera". #Pavarotti
Terrible pictures from the aftermath of #Russia's attack with cluster munitions on a bus stop in Mykolaiv this morning
Highly, highly suspicious: a spokesman for #Russia's "Donetsk People's Republic" tells Russian military TV that none of the Russian guards were killed or wounded in the alleged strike by #Ukraine in Olenivka that killed dozens of Azov prisoners today.
Yesterday:

- Russian soldiers castrated a Ukrainian captive on video

Today:

- Russian cluster munitions killed civilians at a bus stop in Mykolaiv

- 50 Ukrainian Azov prisoners in Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast, killed; lot of circumstantial evidence it is a massacre by Russia
#Ukraine's Foreign Minister squarely blames #Russia for the attack on the prison in Olenivka that has killed 50 or so Ukrainian prisoners-of-war this morning, which the Kremlin is blaming on the Ukrainians.
#Russia's propagandists obviously pleased with #Hungary.

Question it will take time to unravel: was Budapest made any promises of #Ukrainian territory by Moscow before this began in exchange for political support for what was meant to be a lightning war.
#Ukraine's HIMARS at work overnight: destroyed what seems to be an ammunition depot in Ilovaisk in the centre-east of the Donetsk Oblast. There has been a slowdown in these HIMARS strikes on #Russia's logistics points simply because the Ukrainians have wiped most of them out.
#Ukraine keeping up the pressure on #Russian-occupied Kherson, struck a target, presumably a weapons depot, in Brylivka overnight.
Good piece from @steven_pifer: to know why #Russia has done this, one only has to listen to #Putin, who speaks of the Holy Rus, historic Russian lands, and #Ukraine being a fake country, with "not one word about #NATO or NATO enlargement." brookings.edu/opinions/one-m…
.@USTreasury indicts Aleksandr Viktorovich Ionov, head of the Anti-Globalization Movement of Russia, ran a "malign influence campaign" for the FSB from 2014 onwards "turning #US political groups and US citizens into instruments of the Russian government" justice.gov/opa/pr/russian…
#pt: There is enough info in the @USTreasury indictment that some of the groups and people #Russia co-opted within the #US will soon be identified. One of the obvious groups is the African People's Socialist Party, headquartered, appropriately enough, in Saint Petersburg, Florida
Great essay by @peterpomeranzev on #Putin's project to humiliate Ukraine and the manipulation of Russians' sense of humiliation to sustain this enterprise, displacing onto a West that must not participate in this cycle by indulging the Kremlin's fantasies. nytimes.com/2022/07/26/opi…
#pt: Point @peterpomeranzev hits on is the Kremlin's essentially schizophrenic approach to the West, which is reflected in the Russian population more broadly: they profess to despise a decadent West and want to be isolated from it, while seeking the West's approval/recognition.
#pt: NB: the racist sense #Russian officials have about the ethnic minorities that are doing so much of the fighting. Just as Russian soldiers in Ukraine say they will protect Ukrainians from Tuvans, prisoners are threatened with rape by Chechens (happened to a friend of mine). Image
Vadim Shishimarin, a 21-year-old #Russian contract soldier, was the first convicted in #Ukraine for war crimes in February for murdering a civilian. On appeal, his life sentence has been reduced to fifteen years. independent.co.uk/news/ap-kyiv-b…
The clash between #Israel and #Russia highlights the complications for the Zionist project in the 21st Century, writes @mkoplow, with the Israeli government managing its identity and obligations as a sovereign actor for citizens and a refuge for all Jews. israelpolicyforum.org/2022/07/28/rus…
Marina Ovsyannikova was fined 30,000 rubles after her protest on #Russian state television in March and has now been fined another 50,000 rubles for "discrediting" the Army. She refused to retract and told the court: "What's going on here is absurd". theguardian.com/world/2022/jul…
#Putin's calculations in #Ukraine are about regime security, not national security, meaning there is nothing the West can offer alter them: there is nothing to be learned in negotiations and every chance they make things worse, writes @samagreene. tldrussia.substack.com/p/why-putin-fi…
The right message from @trussliz: as Prime Minister she would "work relentlessly to ensure a Ukrainian victory and Russia's strategic defeat"; keep the weapons flowing "to push Russian troops out"; and no talk of "concessions and compromises". telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/…
#pt: A bit slow, but again the right signal from @trussliz: as PM, she would "raise [Britain's] defence spending to three per cent of GDP by the end of the decade".
Important from @Reuters on what I think will loom larger and larger in the #Ukraine story: #Russia thought it had agents in place to collapse the state from within, which is why such maximalist aims were pursued with troop numbers that made so little sense reuters.com/investigates/s…
#pt: In some local areas, #Russia's plan worked: #Chernobyl's head of security, Valentin Viter, was a traitor who opened the town up. (Similar happened down in #Kherson.) But Viktor Medvedchuk coup plan in Kiev failed, and Oleg Tsaryov could not be installed as puppet leader. Image
#pt: Russia was taken in by some agents, who "overstated their influence [within Ukraine] in the years leading up to the invasion", which is partly a problem of Russian intelligence's corruption: they skimmed off money designed for agents and didn't vet their recruits properly.
A factor @Reuters doesn't dwell on: #Russia has agents in place, who, when the moment came, refused to help the invaders, and a significant part of that is due to President Zelensky: nobody expected him to stand firm and hold together the state.
#pt: Still, "the Russian intelligence infiltration did succeed in one way: It has sown mistrust inside Ukraine and laid bare the shortcomings of Ukraine’s near 30,000-strong Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU".
#pt: Interesting that despite Chernobyl's long history, even after #Ukraine's independence from the Soviet Union, of being a hotspot of KGB/FSB influence, #Russia left it so late in active preparations for the invasion in that area, only beginning in November 2021. Image
#pt: Yuriy Lutsenko, Ukraine’s prosecutor general from 2016 to 2019, said that when he left office "hundreds" of Ukrainian Defence Ministry employees were under surveillance, approved by his office, because the were believed to be Russian agents or otherwise tied to RU intel.
#pt: The revenge of the Great Man Theory: #Russia and everyone observing the situation had every reason to believe #Ukraine, with all its socio-political fractures and the Kremlin agents in place, would crumple quickly; nobody could have foreseen the Zelensky factor. Image
#pt: The wilderness of mirrors remains about Denis Kireev: there is no agreement who he worked for or how he died. Image
#pt: The infiltration by Russia's intelligence services of Ukraine was a major reason before the invasion began I thought (see below) that Ukraine was going to struggle to hold off. Glad to have been wrong about that.
#pt: Gradually became clear in March that Russia had badly miscalculated how much of a fifth column it had
#pt: By the end of March, was obvious something had gone terribly wrong for the Russians when it came to assessing the assets they had in place in Ukraine
#pt: Good report from May on what went wrong for Russia's intelligence services in planning the invasion
The account of #Russia's Embassy in #Britain advertising the intent for its government to commit war crimes against #Ukrainian prisoners of war. What one might call an indirect confession of what Russia did this morning in Olenivka. Image
In his speech tonight, #Ukraine's President Zelensky promises retribution for the #Russians who carried out the massacre of prisoners in Olenivka today. (The Kremlin is claiming the prisoners were killed when the jail was hit by Ukrainian shelling.)
#Britain's police 'contextualising' #Russia's Embassy calling for war crimes, while paying warning visits under "hate speech" laws to those who tweet "trans women aren't women". Whatever you think on substance of the latter, the double standard is absurd.
#Ukraine intercepts a call of a #Russian soldier saying Ukrainian POWs were packed into the Olenivka prison over the last few days, the prisoners were killed today likely by an explosive planted inside, then some Grads were fired at the prison and Ukraine's HIMARS were blamed.
A second part to this video was posted today that shows the #Russian soldiers shooting the #Ukrainian captive in the head and then tying one of his legs to a vehicle with a rope and dragging his body through the street. Utterly obscene behaviour.
Do tune in on Monday if you're about

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More from @KyleWOrton

Jul 31
Thread: 31 July 2022: Day 158 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update focuses on the de facto annexation of #Belarus by #Russia: notes the missiles fired from Belarus at #Ukraine, the escalating repression, concludes: "likely indicate that [Lukashenko] has become almost wholly dependent on Russia." Image
#Russia's "Wagner" unit is encouraging illegal migration across from #Libya to #Italy. This causes immediate chaos for border authorities and then, when it leads to broader social tensions, the Russians will exploit those, too.
Read 27 tweets
Jul 30
Thread: 30 July 2022: Day 157 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: likely that #Ukraine has "repelled small scale Russian assaults" around Donetsk city. "Highly likely" that #Russia has "established two pontoon bridges in Kherson. Russia is tightening control in the occupied zones to prepare for annexation announcement. Image
Oleksiy Arestovych argues #Russia putting out the video of castrating #Ukrainian soldiers, something known about for a long time, is designed to provoke a reaction, allowing Moscow to argue its a two-sided barbarian war the West must stop with a ceasefire.
Read 14 tweets
Jul 28
Thread: 28 July 2022: Day 155 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: "#Ukraine's counter-offensive in Kherson is gathering momentum", with a bridgehead established south of the Inhulets River. Ukraine has used HIMARS to damage the bridges in and out of Kherson, leading Russia's 49th Army to look "highly vulnerable".
Congress has been briefed that #Russia has suffered 75,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in #Ukraine
Read 36 tweets
Jul 27
Thread: 27 July 2022: Day 154 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia making "tactical advances" around the Vuhlehirska power station in Donetsk. Lavrov in Africa, long an interest of Moscow's, trying to blame the West for the food crisis.

Not happy with Wagner being defined as a "private military company"
#pt: "Wagner" is a unit of the #Russian military under GRU. The purpose of the "private military company" presentation is to make it "deniable" - to minimise the domestic political impact of losses and to distance Moscow internationally from its atrocities foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/06/wha…
Read 62 tweets
Jul 26
[1/2] #Ukraine's President Zelensky in his speech tonight noted #Russia's troop losses in his country; lauded the improving relations with Latin America (Chile, Paraguay, Costa Rica, and now Uruguay); and thanked @BorisJohnson for the Churchill Award and #Britain's support.
[2/2] Zelensky: The awards in #Britain and the #Netherlands are a reflection of the changed attitudes toward #Ukraine: "Our bravery is truly an inspiration for all free nations and the community of democracies ... Just imagine how inspiring the Ukrainian victory will be".
Read 19 tweets
Jul 26
Was saying to my housemate last night that it is strange that, when it comes to the schism in the British electorate/political class that Brexit exposed so sharply, Truss is on the "Brexit" side of it and Sunak is coded as the "Remainer". But it does make a certain kind of sense.
Brexit-as-policy faded once it was done; we're left now with Brexit-as-symbol, a marker of political instinct/tribe, class, and so on. And in that sense Sunak's libertarian, "Singapore-style" Brexit position is closer to the Remainers.
Who knows what Truss really believes, but in her public life, which is all you can judge a politician by, she accepted the referendum result, has said she was wrong to vote Remain, and worked in government to fulfil the things that most of the Brexiteers wanted.
Read 4 tweets

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