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Dr Arvind Virmani (Phd) Profile picture
@dravirmani
Sep 4, 2022 • 28 tweets • 22 min read • Read on X
228/sc #Supply #Chain #Diversification: #USA needs to urgently shift the labor intensive & medium tech parts of its defence supply chains from 🇨🇳 to 🇮🇳 with the collateral benefit of getting more defence orders under #Atman #Nirbhar production; #GOI must ensure #EODB/#EORC
229/sc #Supply #Chain #substitution
230/sc #Supply #Chain #Diversification . Note that Vietnam is a competitor in location of consumer digital products supply chains. (Reason & solution in next tweet)
231/sc One reason #Vietnam is a more competitive location for electronic supply chains is 👇🏼. Another reason is complex #GST with >15 cesses. Third reason is ancient #Direct #tax #code (even #MNCs buy components, parts & subsystems from SMEs which are a affected by #DTC & #GST)
232/sc #Supply #Chain #Diversification gathering steam, slowly but surely. Currently #China has ~1/3 the world market for telecom & electronic exports, a dangerous dependency, which the #QUAD & #EU+ cannot risk!
233/sc #Supply #Chain #Diversification picking up steam?
234/sc Indian market for many digital products is rapidly reaching minimum efficient scale(#MES)m & only needs a little mental push to shift production from China to India: Continued Govt focus on Ease of Regulatory Compliance would accelerate the process: asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Supp…
235/sc Incentives can be equated, by reducing import tariffs on inputs used in telecom equipment & goods, computer & related products & producer electronic products to a uniform rate btwn 0-5%. Image
236/sc Learning from competitors is a critical component of successful #supply #chain #diversification
237/sc #Chinese companies wanting to follow #MNCs in shifting supply chains from #PRC to #India, are welcome to form a #JV with an #Indian partner(s) => Good decision!
238/sc #Supply #Chain #Diversification:
#China => #Vietnam, #India
239/sc #Friend #shoring by any other name smells as sweat (as long it’s from China to India) 🧐
240/sc Size of labor force & wage rates favour India. A lot of other handicaps have been removed by GOI, others are in process, and some still remain to be addressed! Speed of effective reform implementation, will determine speed of supply chain shift to India viz other cntrys Image
241/sc #Supply Chain shifts #India
242/sc A comprehensive reform of customs duties applicable to electronics parts & components & other inputs like plastic & rubber products is a necessary condition for India to compete with Vietnam, in attracting supply chains for laptops, AirPods & smart watches.
243/sc #Supply #Chains finally beginning to move? Reform of #Customs #tariffs, particularly the electronics-telecom supply chain, will broaden and deepen the process.
244/sc #Supply #Chain #Diversificaton Image
245/sc Vietnam is a star performer in the 2000s. Can India learn any lessons from it? Image
246/sc
247/sc Supply chain shifts require an appropriate Macro economic policy framework & good quality, “net worked”, infrastructure across supply chain. Product specific policies aren’t enough. Well designed/tailored subsidies help, but badly designed 1s(1 size fits all) can hinder!
248/sc Diversification of US anchored supply chains from PRC to India, needs a further push. Tariff reform can help accelerate the process in electronics, telecom, textiles & garments, the sectors monopolised by PRC
249/sc thefederal.com/business/india…
250/sc “China plus one”
251/sc Japanese, Korean & Chinese MNCs are too well entrenched in Asia for us to benefit from #RCEP. Best path left for us, is to attract Western MNCs, by reducing tariffs on merchandise trade with USA+EU+UK to the avg of these cntrys (thru FTAs w 1 RO). bit.ly/3XQ3mXP
252/sc To ensure that Rules of Origin (RO) do not hinder/slow the supply chain shift to India, they should apply collectively to the set of developed cntrys, whose economies are complementary to ours(US, EU, UK, WEur), Ie Value Add condition is aggregable to entire set of cntrys.
253/sc The largest number of #MNCs are still from #USA, & therefore they still run the the largest global supply chains. A #US-#India #FTA could herald a major shift of supply chains from China to India, but is not on the cards, because of US internal political constraints.
254/sc #Supply #Chain #Diversification: “Game on”
255/sc #Japanese supply chains will shift to ASEAN, where Japanese companies are heavily invested and feel most comfortable. India has to target US & European companies

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More from @dravirmani

Dr Arvind Virmani (Phd) Profile picture
Jan 28, 2023
One should be inured to the pro-China, anti-India, bias of the Anglo Saxon world, & its subalterns [ jstor.org/stable/30030642 ], but sadly after 50 yrs, one is still not!
2/ir #India’s #rise is causing deep disquiet in the #Anglo #Saxon #World and among its subalterns. #Information #War will intensify in next 3 years, and won’t subside till India becomes the third largest economy in (current) USD.
3/ir Great slogan for the #Information #War on India
Read 5 tweets
Dr Arvind Virmani (Phd) Profile picture
Jan 28, 2023
As a National Security Strategist * find it a little difficult to interpret such statements by Senior officers of the US armed forces, in the broader context of the PRC threat!
2/nss Sweet spot for PLA aggression: #Elections in raucous democracies. => Lesson: Armed forces in threatened countries, should have more operational autonomy during election period.
3/nss Post script: #India’s general election is also in 2024
Read 4 tweets
Dr Arvind Virmani (Phd) Profile picture
Jan 28, 2023
#Perspective #Planning anyone (🙈🙉🙊) ?
2/res Ths who’ve never done #research in lifetime find it difficult to understand, why this is critical, for directing commissioning & using, good policy relevant research [An internal core of researchers is key to success]. For them ideas & analysis can be bought like software📦
3/res Any org that merely reacts to media headlines, & questions raised by critics, is like a consultancy organisation, not a think tank. It can never anticipate problems, nor create imaginative new solutions. Worlds top consultancy orgs. reward salesmanship not analysis… 4/res
Read 5 tweets
Dr Arvind Virmani (Phd) Profile picture
Jan 5, 2023
#Emedicine, #Telemedicine can/will revolutionise (high quality) #health delivery not only in #India’s rural and remote areas, but also in rural areas of much richer countries!
2/tmed #Telemedicine #Egalth
3/tmed #Telemedicine
Read 6 tweets
Dr Arvind Virmani (Phd) Profile picture
Oct 7, 2022
Buddha's Golden Mean (#BGM): "Those who forget history are condemned to repeat it, those who are obsessed by it, will never see a brighter future"
2/ncrh Remember these are the same folks whose neo-colonial progeny, preach us "principles" to support their selfish interests, and to "shame" us into working against our own national interest
3/ncrh The response must be rational, not emotional. Learn about India's (own) National interest, and the national interests of the major powers (Hint: USSR & PRC were colonial) to understand how "principles" are used & misused!
Read 4 tweets
Dr Arvind Virmani (Phd) Profile picture
Sep 25, 2022
As I have said in many talks, and as the author @pujamehra wrote, the period 2004-13, was a, “lost decade” in terms of economic policy reform, not in terms of GDP growth rate. The latter was due to the lagged effects of 1991-2003 reforms.
The effects of sept 2019-March 2022 #policy #reforms will therefore, likely not be visible in the growth rate, before FY 24 or FY 25. However, the quicker the changes in law are reflected in the rules & procedure applicable to firms, the quicker they will be reflected in growth!
3/gdpi Remember “#India #Shining” campaign in 2003-4: Bcs of lags btwn enactment of policy rfrm into law, their translation into rules & procedures, and decisions by investors, it took years to translate policy reforms into aggregate growth. Wrld econ is in much worse shape today
Read 9 tweets

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