#Russia redeploying its 217th Airborne Regiment from #Syria to #Ukraine is part of a larger months-long drawdown of Russian forces in Syria. newsweek.com/putin-pulling-… 1/7
Moscow faces severe manpower shortages in #Ukraine and is pulling some units from #Syria to inject into the fight. This continuing drawdown is facilitating the expansion of the #Iranian presence in Syria and exacerbating the Iran-Israel escalation cycle. 2/7
#Iran likely seeks to fill the security gap caused by this #Russian drawdown to expand Iranian military influence and maintain stability. 3/7
Supreme Leader #Khamenei met with Syrian President #Assad in May 2022 reportedly to discuss transferring Russian positions to Iran and its proxies. *hamshahrionline.ir/news/675873 4/7
*Indicates foreign domain.
IRGC Commander #Salami paid his first known visit to #Syria in July 2022 likely in part to coordinate and oversee these transfers. 5/7
The 217th Regiment operated in several locations throughout #Syria, including reportedly in southwestern Daraa Province near the Israeli border. #Iran could deploy forces there to stabilize the area and further entrench its military presence along #Israel’s periphery. 6/7
The growing #Iranian military footprint will also enable Tehran to consolidate its logistical and smuggling routes and proliferate advanced drones, missiles, and air defense platforms throughout #Syria. 7/7

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More from @criticalthreats

Sep 22
#Iran has expanded internet censorship in recent days, indicating that regime leaders view ongoing protests following #MahsaAmini's death as a serious threat. Here's what we know so far: 1/6
#IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency today confirmed that #Iranian authorities blocked domestic access to #Whatsapp and #Instagram in an attempt to suppress nation-wide unrest. 2/6
Fars added that the ban will remain intact for an unspecified period of time. #قطع_اینترنت #فیلترنت #internetshutdown (t.me/farsna/263268) 3/6
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Sep 22
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#Russian forces continued ground attacks on the eastern outskirts of #Bakhmut and against #Avdiivka and continued routine fire along the frontline in #Donetsk Oblast on September 21. Image
The #Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled an attempted #Russian attack near #Kupyansk, eastern #Kharkiv Oblast, along the #Oskil River. Image
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Sep 21
Social media reports indicate that protests following #MahsaAmini's death are ongoing and have now occurred in 24 of #Iran's 31 Provinces. A thread: 1/6 #مهسا_امینی #IranProtests #MahsaAminii

[Interactive graphics here: criticalthreats.org/analysis/anti-…] Image
Footage has shown Iranian protestors chanting anti-regime slogans condemning #MahsaAmini's September 16th death in #Tehran. Image
Iranian social media users have reported internet connectivity issues in at least 12 of #Iran's 31 Provinces. 3/6 Image
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Sep 21
Russian-appointed occupation officials in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts announced on 9/20 that they will hold a “referendum” on acceding to Russia, with a vote taking place from 9/23-27. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
#Ukrainian forces continued disrupting ongoing #Russian efforts to reestablish ground lines of communications (GLOCs) across the Dnipro River in #Kherson Oblast.
#Russian forces are likely targeting #Ukrainian hydrotechnical infrastructure in #Kharkiv and #Luhansk oblasts to threaten Ukrainian positions along the Siverskyi Donets River.
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Sep 20
Footage circulating on social media suggests that protests following #Mahsah_Amini's death have occurred in 19 of #Iran's 31 provinces within the past three days. A thread: 1/5
Protests that were initially concentrated in #Tehran City and throughout #Kurdistan Province – where Amini was from – have since spread nationwide within the past day, reaching historically conservative cities like #Qom. 2/5
Protestors have chanted anti-regime slogans against mandatory veiling and against Supreme Leader #Khamenei's son, #Mojtaba, who some have speculated will succeed his father as Supreme Leader. CTP discusses Mojtaba and succession in a recent update: criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…  3/5
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Sep 20
NEW | Recent #Ukrainian counter-offensive successes are further reducing the already poor morale among #Russian units that had been considered elite before February 24. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
#Ukrainian forces are likely continuing limited and localized offensive operations across the #Oskil River and along the #Lyman-#Yampil-#Bilohorivka line.
#Ukrainian forces are continuing to strike #Russian military, transportation, and logistics assets in #Kherson Oblast.
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