1/10 Have you read our recently published #whitepaper?

The Art of #Stock Picking #Returns

Highlights below ⬇
2/10 “We’ve had 40+ years where all the money went into broadband, or internet, or #Netflix or the cloud and no money went into basic productive capacity…”

–Robert Friedland, CEO, Ivanhoe group of companies
3/10 What follows is KCR’s attempt to create a simple walk-through of the #risks and #opportunities offered today. We believe both the structure and implications of this paper are easy to grasp.
4/10 Yet implementation could be difficult for some as it requires #investors to do the following three things:
5/10 > Avoid speculating on stocks promising #profits in the distant future
6/10 > Don’t follow the crowd in the #stockmarket &stop paying high #fees for opaque private products that require lots of leverage with empirically dubious reporting
7/10 > Hire active managers who pick #stocks using proven methods
8/10 KCR believes the #crisis of #capital misallocation is upon us. For those married exclusively to groupthink, the risks are myriad and conventional failure is likely. The #opportunities have rarely looked better for those willing to embrace the evidence.
9/10 The chart ⬇ updates our favorite metric for estimating long-run #equity returns.

The recent sell-off in equities from the peak on 12/31/21 has left us hovering above the peak of the #dotcom mania. That is what you are getting when you buy the index today.
10/10 Get the full piece here: kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/t…

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More from @KailashConcepts

Mar 1
1/8 Amazing vid from @EPBResearch

Debt #Crisis - Yup, It's Coming. Check it our ⬇

2/8 What we've been saying: banks and the consumer are no longer the problem. #Banks are the new utilities.
3/8 The #government and business sector are the problems. Businesses have seen record #debt and record low #tax rates help inflate margins to unsustainable levels.
Read 8 tweets
Feb 28
1/19 @ttmygh of the wonderful Things That Make You Go HMMMM newsletter just wrote a scathing piece on the emerging #pension fund disaster in lagged marks from private #equity.

loom.ly/YyomXW4
2/19 As he explains:
#PrivateEquity is taking down Pension Funds as they struggle to keep the game of hot-potato going. “Hot potato” being the business practice of selling slices of companies back and forth to one another at ever higher #valuations.
3/19 The “solution” appears to be PE firms building funds to buy #assets from themselves at possibly fraudulent valuations set by themselves.
Read 19 tweets
Feb 28
From @MarketWatch

Interest in #EVs is outpacing infrastructure development

loom.ly/EhmwHWg
2/4 In our piece, The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions we stated, " The electrification of transportation is going to require a massive amount of #mining. The stocks are incredibly cheap."

kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/t…
3/4 The chart below shows the total change in annual #mineral demand by these scenarios. Demand growth is enormous.

Despite incorporating significant future efficiencies, the IEA predicts that mineral #demand will grow 4x. Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 27
1/7 This was a FASCINATING article from @FortuneMagazine

Overconfident #tech #CEOs have overpaid for ‘box tickers’ and ‘taskmasters.’ Here’s why the real ‘creators’ will survive the mass #layoffs

yahoo.com/entertainment/…
2/7 "$CRM CEO Marc #Benioff and $META CEO Mark #Zuckerberg have admitted that they hired too many employees under the assumption that the growth their #sector experienced during the pandemic would continue."
3/7 "In periods of growth, the errors made by overconfident #CEOs are often buffered by the upswing of the economic cycle. In contrast, during upswings, underconfident CEOs lose out because they stay hamstrung with #risk aversion."
Read 7 tweets
Jan 9
1/21 Let's talk about $WE. Last month @SeekingAlpha reported that WeWork could declare bankruptcy in 2023. They have a $ problem.

loom.ly/roQICwI twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
2/21 Their analysis of WeWork's failed business model is spot on.

"The problem for $WE is the margin between what they pay and what they receive from their #customers has not been enough to cover the very large administrative/marketing/advertising #expenses." Image
3/21 Their story is wild. WeWork was founded in 2010. By 2014, it "the fastest-growing lessee of new #office space in New York" and was on track to become "the fastest-growing lessee [lessor] of new space in America."
Read 21 tweets
Dec 30, 2022
1/6 It's not that complicated. When a company issues #stock to employees or the public, it increases shares outstanding and dilutes #earnings per share.
2/6 Give the #stock to the employee, and the cash doesn’t show up on the balance sheet. Robbing Peter to pay Paul. In #broaddaylight
3/6 In the run-up to the peak of the dot com bubble, #stockcomp felt good. Until the stocks started going down and it felt awful. That is precisely where we are today. It tends to be a self-reinforcing spiral.
Read 6 tweets

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