Thread by @CristinaDragani

How long would the #COVID19 #pandemic have lasted without the #vaccine?

We have two ways to answer this question: the first is the #historical one, i.e. looking at the past and understanding how many years the previous pandemics caused by respiratory #viruses lasted. (1/9)

The available data tell us that all pandemics caused by respiratory #viruses lasted about two years:

-Influenza A H1N1 (swine flu), caused by an #influenza A virus of swine origin, lasted from April 2009 to August 2010.

-Influenza A H3N2 (Hong Kong flu), (2/9)

caused by an influenza A virus that emerged in 1968 and replaced the previous H2N2 #virus, which lasted until 1970.

Influenza A H2N2 (Asian flu), caused by an #influenza A virus that emerged in 1957 and replaced the previous H1N1 virus, which lasted until 1958. (3/9)

Influenza A H1N1 (Spanish flu), caused by an influenza A #virus that emerged in 1918 and caused the most severe pandemic in recorded #history, which lasted until 1920.

The #Russian flu, caused by an #influenza A virus of unknown subtype, (4/9)

which killed about 1 million people worldwide, lasted from 1889 to 1890.

These data were in the public domain of #politicians and their public #health experts, (5/9)

who instead decided on measures to limit individual #freedoms that were unprecedented in Western #democracies and which have been absolutely ineffective in countering the #pandemic.

So why the #vaccination mandate and the serious limitation of individual freedoms? (6/9)

Historical and political analysis has yet to begin.

The second way is to see when the #COVID19 #pandemic has ended in countries and continents with low #vaccination rates. For example, in Africa, where the vaccinated rate is about 35%, (7/9)

compared with more than about 70% in #Europe and North America, #COVID19 deaths were reported from about March 2020 to March 2022 approximately, or over a period of approximately 2 years.

Therefore, the COVID19 #pandemic would have ended after about two years, (8/9)

as has actually been observed.

This easy #prediction could have made it possible to face the #pandemic with more serenity and adequacy, as has been done in #Sweden and a few other Western countries. 🙏(9/9)