Cristina Dragani Profile picture
Jun 6 9 tweets 8 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
How long would the #COVID19 #pandemic have lasted without the #vaccine?

We have two ways to answer this question: the first is the #historical one, i.e. looking at the past and understanding how many years the previous pandemics caused by respiratory #viruses lasted. (1/9) Image
The available data tell us that all pandemics caused by respiratory #viruses lasted about two years:

-Influenza A H1N1 (swine flu), caused by an #influenza A virus of swine origin, lasted from April 2009 to August 2010.

-Influenza A H3N2 (Hong Kong flu), (2/9)
caused by an influenza A virus that emerged in 1968 and replaced the previous H2N2 #virus, which lasted until 1970.

Influenza A H2N2 (Asian flu), caused by an #influenza A virus that emerged in 1957 and replaced the previous H1N1 virus, which lasted until 1958. (3/9)
Influenza A H1N1 (Spanish flu), caused by an influenza A #virus that emerged in 1918 and caused the most severe pandemic in recorded #history, which lasted until 1920.

The #Russian flu, caused by an #influenza A virus of unknown subtype, (4/9)
which killed about 1 million people worldwide, lasted from 1889 to 1890.

These data were in the public domain of #politicians and their public #health experts, (5/9)
who instead decided on measures to limit individual #freedoms that were unprecedented in Western #democracies and which have been absolutely ineffective in countering the #pandemic.

So why the #vaccination mandate and the serious limitation of individual freedoms? (6/9)
Historical and political analysis has yet to begin.

The second way is to see when the #COVID19 #pandemic has ended in countries and continents with low #vaccination rates. For example, in Africa, where the vaccinated rate is about 35%, (7/9) Image
compared with more than about 70% in #Europe and North America, #COVID19 deaths were reported from about March 2020 to March 2022 approximately, or over a period of approximately 2 years.

Therefore, the COVID19 #pandemic would have ended after about two years, (8/9) Image
as has actually been observed.

This easy #prediction could have made it possible to face the #pandemic with more serenity and adequacy, as has been done in #Sweden and a few other Western countries. 🙏(9/9)

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More from @CristinaDragani

Jul 8, 2021
I strongly urge all #scientists to return to their laboratories and conduct thorough #research on the topics within their purview.

#Health policy and #restriction decisions are the responsibility of the government and must consider multiple factors. 🇬🇧
#COVID19 #lockdown
1/6
In my opinion, Lancet did very poorly to publish the document accessible from the link: thelancet.com/journals/lance…

This is undue political pressure on the #UK government to try to prevent a return to normal life.
🌅😎⚽️🇬🇧🇮🇹
2/6
While I understand the scientists' concerns, it must be strongly stated that a #pandemic is not forever! 🤞🍀

#Vaccination of the UK population will provide adequate protection. 🛡️
#SARSCoV2 #healthcare #Health
3/6
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