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Quick: Name a Facebook ad you saw recently. The *principle* of interference is a big deal but for election $100K in FB ads won't go very far
Thread 1 on what we know about Facebook ad effects
Thread 2 on why knowing how Russia Facebook ad campaign was designed could be informative
Center for Responsive Politics estimates $2.4 billion spent on presidential campaign in 2016 opensecrets.org/overview/cost.…
Again, the *principle* of election interference is a big deal, but I'm seeing way too many data-free claims about all-powerful Facebook ads
Different potential mechanism (though again we have no direct evidence ads are cause)
The Facebook ad panic reminds me of the panics over microtargeting ('00s) & negative ads ('80s/'90s) before data showed effects were limited
Consider the evidence showing effects of TV ads, which are much more visceral and high impact than Facebook, dissipate quickly
Every new medium creates exaggerated fears of manipulation/propaganda. Need to study social & regulate ads on it but should be based on data
One factor enhancing fears - profit motive from people hyping what they can do do to potential customers/media
Consider data in this paper from real FB ad campaigns - responses to ads are tiny fractions of 1%, many don't work
