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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
, 18 tweets, 6 min read Read on Twitter
1/18 The new Legatum paper covers a wide range of topics. This thread focuses on the WTO & repeated references to the UK being a WTO leader
2/18 A lot of it deals with issues such as regulations and standards. Others may have comments on those. I’ll stick to broader WTO topics
3/18 It has some valid points. But with so much misreading, eg on WTO negotiations, it’s questionable how solid the rest of the paper is
4/18 Eg this. The UK can “explain” as much as it likes. It won’t be the first. Securing WTO consensus on what that means is something else
5/18 Back in 2001, WTO members did agree on the need to liberalise. They launched new talks with this declaration. wto.org/english/thewto…
6/18 Result? The “Doha Round” reached no agreement except in limited areas. Would a UK explanation have helped? wto.org/english/tratop…
7/18 WTO members can’t even agree if the Doha Round is over or not. Nairobi 2015: would UK explanation have helped? wto.org/english/thewto…
8/18 “Trade leader” again, but hang on a minute. “WTO members” includes the EU and its member states. WTO = 164 members = 164 trade agendas
9/18 No problem here. @JulianUNWTO and @UKMissionGeneva are doing this already
10/18 But too late here. The UK and EU are already working jointly on this. Difficult to separate them tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2017/10/07/pri…
11/18 This is nonsense. Other members have already challenged “rectification”. UK and EU are “other WTO members” for each other’s TRQs too
12/18 By the way, the reason for the UK-EU common WTO position is Phase 1 of the EU’s Art.50 negotiating guidelines consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press…
13/18 Finally on a UK-EU free trade agreement (FTA). Telling the WTO early on about it will almost certainly make no difference because …
14/18 … the WTO committee of WTO members dealing with this has almost no teeth … wto.org/english/tratop…
15/18 … Although the committee can be useful for clarifying facts. These are minutes from the latest meeting docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/F…
16/18 Anyway, UK & EU are supposed to notify an FTA “promptly” (from GATT: contracting parties now = WTO members) wto.org/english/docs_e…
17/18 In practice, par (b) is unworkable. No comments made by other countries has ever had any impact, at least in WTO years (from 1995)
18/18 Details of a UK-EU deal will be important “for information only” unless there’s a serious violation eg passporting-only in services
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More from @CoppetainPU see all

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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
I'd add one crucial point to @DmitryOpines's thread.

Leaving the EU with no deal eventually, is not very good for the UK, but you could make a case for it.

Leaving it overnight ("crashing out") is far, far worse.

1/4
That's something @ShankerASingham misses out completely in his letter to the @ft

Yes, lots of countries trade well with the EU “on WTO terms”. If, like them, the UK had never been in the Single Market, it would do well on WTO terms too.

2/4
Just one example: this clip is from a longer @BBCNewsnight report on the medicines a dialysis patient needs. Given enough time to make new arrangements (months), she would be guaranteed medicines & ability to travel.

No deal on March 29? No hope.

3/4
Read 5 tweets
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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
Some Brexiters (by no means all) apparently see “no deal” increasingly as a “viable” option, particularly no deal on March 29.

Those who argue in favour, need to address in detail the weight of evidence that it would be seriously harmful for many.

huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/increasi…

1/17
Remember:

1. Arguing against “no deal” is not arguing against Brexit. (It’s sad that this has to be repeated.)

2. “No deal” on March 29, is far worse than a gradual transition to “no deal” over a number of years. And it can’t be a “managed no deal” unless there’s a deal.

2/17
3. Even “no deal” on March 29 won’t mean the end of the world (a phrase used repeatedly), but for many it could mean the end of their present livelihoods.

If it’s a “viable” option, define “viable”.

And for whom?

3/17
Read 20 tweets
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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
The "transitional arrangement" @bbaschuk refers to is, for now, the proposed Withdrawal Agreement (WA). It has provisions (129.1) specifically dealing with issues such as the WTO's Government Procurement Agreement (GPA)

What needs to be sorted out?

1/10

gov.uk/government/pub…
With the WA, the time to sort out the GPA is extended under the WA's transition period. Without the WA and no consensus in the WTO's Government Procurement Committee (the GPA signatories), UK preferential access is lost.

2/10

Source (paywalled): ….agribusinessintelligence.informa.com/PL218600/New-s… Screenshot of paragraphs in the linked paywalled article quoting a WTO news story in which the UK and EU say the UK will be treated as an EU member until the end of the transition, and Article 129.1 plus footnote of the draft Withdrawal Agreement
The problem isn't the UK's offer (already accepted in principle) but legalese & procedure in the committee's draft decision

@bbaschuk shared a leaked US amendment to the EU's draft committee decision.

It is revealing. This first part is unamended.

3/10

drive.google.com/file/d/1pW-3P0… Screenshot of the top of page 2 of the US proposed draft decision, down to
Read 10 tweets

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