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Peter Foster @pmdfoster
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
It's #Brexit talks (sorry, er "stock-taking") again, where the sticking point is EU's €60,000,000,000 demand for a financial settlement.

So in that context, can someone at Home Office/HMG please explain?... 1/Thread
....why the UK is handing the EU such easy point by demanding EU citizens each pay up to £72.50 to register for 'settled status'.

That's up to £362.50 for a family of five hard-working, tax-paying EU citizens to accommodate a political choice they did not seek /2
Strikes me as example of Home Office tone-deafness.

Not surprising that @GuyVerhofstadt has gone skywards about it. /3

europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-…
The UK has genuine arguments about how obstructive & hard-nosed the EU (well, France and Germany more than Barnier/TF50) are being on 'sufficient progress', so why hand the EU side such an open goal? /4
Put another, even if it costs £72.50 for all 3.2m EU citizens, that is £232m.

£232,000,000 is chickenfeed against...

£60,000,000,000 or whatever we agree. /5
Problem now is that it's a 'thing', so if UK climbs down, no doubt No 10 fears 'media backlash'

Some times, it's worth thinking which fights are worth picking.

Figuratively and literally. 6/ENDS
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A seriously blue sky #Brexit thought that I've been having lately.

If this happens, you read it here first :)

What if the Irish offered the UK a unilateral exit clause on the backstop?

Bear with me... 1/Thread
This seems nuts, I know, but imagine a world where we are right, deep in the endzone and it is clear that this is what gets the Withdrawal Agreement over the line.

By this point, the British parliament will have demonstrated it has no appetite or majority to crash out /2
And that would clearly be the heavy price of walking away from the backstop - which anyway cuts the old Dec 2020 'cliff-edge' pretty much in half.

Have look at the positive spin of the backstop from this weeks DUP reassurance paper. /3
Read 11 tweets
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The problem at the heart of the #Brexit impasse is still whether the UK remain in a Customs Union with the EU.

Solve this and you largely solve Brexit. 1/Thread
Both the problem, and the failure to address it, is writ large in May's deal.

Officially UK is NOT joining a customs union....but in the absence of unicorns we clearly are.

Either via the Backstop or when its clear 'other arrangements' dont exist to fix the Irish border /2
Unfortunately May never had the courage to confront her Brexiteers over this fact. She fudged in Lancaster House, and kept fudging.

Recall this time last year, as the Irish reality dawned, senior peeps like @DLidington were flying kites on this.
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
Read 21 tweets
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Right. Some quick takeaways on the 'reassurance to the DUP' document that's just been published by UKG here 1/Thread

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
1. If the backstop kicks in, UKG will ensure GB doesn't diverge to minimise regulatory 'gap' over Irish Sea.

This fits what @DLidington said before Xmas /2
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@DLidington It's not a magic bullet, but officials say it will "chisel right down" the number of additional checks needed, until such time as the backstop is replaced. /2
Read 12 tweets

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Again, at such a key moment in UK and at such high political levels, evidence of deep misunderstanding of EU: The PM is under pressure in some quarters to delay #Brexit vote to allow her first to “improve” deal in Brussels BUT EU is determined not to budge at this stage
2) All EU leaders watching tomorrow’s vote. Of course they want to avoid a no deal #Brexit BUT they feel the deal - so painfully negotiated between EU and UK - is too fresh to re-open. Clarifications, yes but fundamental renegotiations, no.
3) The EU’s international reputation as a tough deal-maker is at stake here too. If Brussels now suddenly “gives in” to U.K. on EU red lines (eg backstop) then that would weaken the EU’s reputation in future trade negotiations with other non EU countries
Read 6 tweets
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#brexit, #language, #mathematics, #pseudoscience, #rhetoric, #style

Brand-new and remarkable: #today, in a speech before #industry-representatives, chancellor Angela #Merkel used an old-fashioned, and,I think, INAPPROPRIATE,mathematical term to describe the #Brexit discussions..
.. in the #UK.

On 20180925, 9:50 CET, (cf. bdi.eu/der-bdi/termin…), chancellor Merkel said the following: "Wesentlich hängt es natürlich auch davon ab, was Großbritannien denn wirklich möchte. Auch da ist ja die Diskussion nicht so ganz eineindeutig [sic],
und, das muss ich..
.. allerdings sagen: Man kann nicht zum Binnenmarkt gehören, wenn man in EINEM Teil nur zum Binnenmarkt gehören will, aber in drei ANDEREN Teilen nicht zum Binnenmarkt gehört, und da müssen wir verschiedene, äh, vernünftige Wege [ rest drowned out by applause ]."
..
Read 17 tweets
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EU diplomats shrug at what they view as U.K. hysteria over Canada+ or Chequers #Brexit debate. The EU says the choice was never the UK’s alone 1
EU viewsChequers as a U.K. government position. Not an end in itself. Brussels aim: to navigate between Chequers and EU red lines.. 2
Accusation I often hear in Brussels is that U.K. Brexit negotiators are fine wordsmiths but that there’s often little meaning behind the words 3
Read 19 tweets
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UK proposal for a "Mobility Framework" is class-based Freedom of Movement with British characteristics. Keeps FoM for professionally trained middle classes, excludes working class people.

For the EU FoM is a universal right. UK concessions inevitable.
gov.uk/government/pub…
"Defined number of areas to seek reciprocal mobility arrangements" is where the UK will get minced in talks. Many areas where UK needs EU workers are rural, low paid services or industrial jobs. Every sector will want mobility arrangements for which the EU will demand concessions
"Mobility Arrangement" looks like a vastly bureaucratic system that the Home Office will struggle to police designed to replicate Freedom of Movement while pretending it is not.

Pointless and absurd.
Read 9 tweets
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Aside from Davis failing to provide the #Brexit bills as ordered, the other take away from this piece is Patel claiming government should tell EU to sod off, both demonstrating they still don't get UK's weakness in negotiations 1/n
theguardian.com/politics/2017/…
All the people claiming UK should just walk away from the table and show Johnny Foreigner just how strong the UK is miss one crucial point, the UK isn't strong anymore 2/n
It isn't putting the UK down to point out the facts, it's slipping in rankings, productivity down, credit rating reduced, and this is before we point out that its reliance on imports for its supply chain 3/n
Read 15 tweets
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1. New round of #Brexit talks in Brussels today & #Prexit behind us, let's take stock of what EU papers are saying in Ep 100 of 'Nothing Has Changed.' (Thread.)
2. France's @LesEchos says TM is "increasingly fragile." Notes, "Clearly, chances that outstanding Brexit issues are resolved" in this round of talks "are close to nill." lesechos.fr/monde/europe/0…
3. @LesEchos: "The increasingly fragility of TM is a subject that's preoccupying the minds of EU leaders, who prefer to negotiate with a strong leader."
Read 21 tweets

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