The generic ballot polling certainly looks great for Democrats, but how is that playing out at the district level? We've polled 36 GOP held Congressional districts since October. Here's what we've found...
Last year in CA-10 Jeff Denham won 52-48. He trails a generic Democrat 49-41 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority December 11-12
Last year in CA-39 Ed Royce won 57-43. He trails a generic Democrat 46-43 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority December 11-12
Last year in CA-45 Mimi Walters won 59-41. She trails a generic Democrat 45-41 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority December 12-13
Last year in NJ-11 Rodney Frelinghuysen won 58-39. He trails a generic Democrat 49-40 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority December 12-13
Last year in PA-8 Brian Fitzpatrick won 54-46. He trails a generic Democrat 47-41 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority December 11-12
Last year in CA-25 Steve Knight won 53-47. He trails a generic Democrat 48-44 on a poll we did for Not One Penny November 27-28
Last year in CO-6 Mike Coffman won 51-43. He trails a generic Democrat 46-38 on a poll we did for Not One Penny November 27-28
Last year in IA-1 Rod Blum won 54-46. He trails a generic Democrat 51-43 on a poll we did for Not One Penny November 27-28
Last year in ME-2 Bruce Poliquin won 55-45. He trails a generic Democrat 46-42 on a poll we did for Not One Penny November 27-28
Last year in NY-24 John Katko won 61-39. He trails a generic Democrat 45-43 on a poll we did for Not One Penny November 27-28
Last year in VA-10 Barbara Comstock won 53-47. She trails a generic Democrat 48-41 on a poll we did for Not One Penny November 27-28
Last year in CA-48 Dana Rohrabacher won 58-42. He trails a generic Democrat 51-41 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority November 8-10
Last year in FL-26 Carlos Curbelo won 53-41. He trails a generic Democrat 53-39 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority November 8-9
Last year in IL-6 Peter Roskam won 59-41. He trails a generic Democrat 51-41 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority November 9-10
Last year in MN-3 Erik Paulsen won 57-43. He trails Democrat Dean Phillips 46-42 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority November 9-10
Last year in NE-2 Don Bacon won 49-48. He trails Democrat Brad Ashford 49-40 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority November 8-9
Last year in NJ-2 retiring Republican Frank LoBiondo won 59-37. A generic Democrat leads a generic Republican 44-39 in the race to replace him on a poll we did for Patriot Majority November 8-10
Last year in NJ-7 Leonard Lance won 54-43. He trails a generic Democrat 42-41 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority November 8-9
Last year in NY-19 John Faso won 54-46. He trails a generic Democrat 46-40 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority November 9-10
Last year in NY-22 Claudia Tenney won 47-41. She trails Democratic opponent Anthony Brindisi 47-41 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority November 9-10
Last year in TX-7 John Culberson won 56-44. He trails a generic Democrat 49-39 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority November 8-10
Last year in TX-32 Pete Sessions didn't even have a Democratic opponent. He trails a generic Democrat 48-43 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority November 8-9
Last year in CA-49 Darrell Issa won by less than a point. He trails a generic Democrat 51-41 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority October 5-8
Last year in PA-15 Charlie Dent who is now retiring won 58-38. In the race to replace him a generic Democrat leads a generic Republican 44-43 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority October 5-8
Last year in WA-8 Dave Reichert who is now retiring won 60-40. In the race to replace him we found a generic Democrat would lead Republican Dino Rossi 43-42 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority October 6-8
So that's 25 GOP held districts we've polled where the client chose to release the poll and a Democrat's been ahead. And of course we haven't polled everywhere. 11 other GOP districts we've polled it's close
Last year in FL-18 Brian Mast won 54-43. He leads a generic Democrat only 45-44 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority December 12-13
Last year in IL-14 Randy Hultgren won 59-41. He leads a generic Democrat only 47-44 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority December 12-13
Last year in NY-1 Lee Zeldin won 58-42. He leads a generic Democrat only 46-42 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority December 12-13
Last year in TX-31 John Carter won 58-37. He leads Democratic foe MJ Hegar only 46-40 on a poll we did for her campaign November 28-29
Last year in WI-1 Paul Ryan won 65-30. He leads Democratic opponent Randy Bryce just 46-39 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority November 9-10
Last year in MI-6 Fred Upton won 59-36. He leads a generic Democrat just 42-41 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority November 8-9
Last year in MI-11 the retiring Dave Trott won 53-40. In the race to replace him a generic Democrat ties a generic Republican 42-42 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority October 5-8
These last few polls we'll tweet were done in early October and I think the climate has improved for Democrats since then. It was already pretty good but tax reform has made it even rosier so it may be better for Dems in these places now
In IA-3 David Young won 53-40 last year. He leads a generic Democrat just 44-43 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority October 6-8
In PA-6 Ryan Costello won 57-43 last year. He leads Democratic opponent Chrissy Houlahan just 45-37 on a poll we did for Patriot Majority October 6-8
In MN-2 Jason Lewis won 47-45 last year. He leads Democratic opponent Angie Craig on a poll we did for Patriot Majority October 4-7
And finally in AZ-2 the attempting to move up Martha McSally won 57-43 last year. In various polls before she changed races she was struggling against both Ann Kirkpatrick and Matt Heinz. Even tougher road for GOP in open seat race
So the generic ballot polling on a national level is good for Democrats. And so is all of the district specific polling we're doing. If you're interested in looking at any other districts or checking back on any of these early in 2018: publicpolicypolling.com/hire-us/
