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PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
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Our new national poll covers Tax Reform, the generic ballot, Spygate, Sessions and Pruitt, self pardoning, the Trump administration's feud with the media, feelings toward Canada, Laurel and Yanny, and who people think the GOAT is: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/tax-refo…
Tax Reform still not doing much to help the GOP. Only 31% of voters support it, 38% opposed. Slightly more voters (33%) think it will hurt than (30%) help their family's finances, 25% don't think it will make a difference: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/tax-refo…
Big problem with GOP hoping economy will save them this fall is only 35% of voters think their personal economic situation has gotten better in last year. 26% say they're worse off, 37% say they're about the same: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/tax-refo…
51% think Tax Reform will mostly benefit rich, 30% middle class, 7% poor.

Big divide based on whether people own stocks in perceptions of economy.

Among those who do, 43% say they're better off than year ago, 16% worse off.

Among those who don't, 27% better off, 35% worse off
Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot 46-40. That lead grows to 52-43 among voters who say they're 'very excited' to vote this year: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/tax-refo…
Brand of Congressional Republicans is pretty terrible. Paul Ryan has a 20/60 approval spread, and Mitch McConnell's approval is even lower at 13/58.

Overall Congress has a 6% approval rating:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/tax-refo…
Donald Trump has a 39% approval rating, with 54% of voters disapproving of him.

Voters wish Barack Obama was still President instead of Trump, 53-41:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/tax-refo…
Asked to pick the best President of the last 40 years, 29% pick Barack Obama to 25% for Ronald Reagan, and 16% for Donald Trump.

Trump voters pick Reagan over Trump 49-38 so GOP might at least theoretically still want to be party of Reagan:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/tax-refo…
Jeff Sessions has a 15/50 favorability rating. Unpopular with both Trump (20/40) and Clinton (7/64) voters.

Interestingly though Trump voters want Sessions fired (37/32) and Clinton voters DON'T want him fired (27/44):

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/tax-refo…
Only 12% of voters see Scott Pruitt favorably to 37% with a negative opinion of him, although more than half have no opinion about him at all.

41% think he should be fired to 22% who think he should stay with the rest unsure about what should happen:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/tax-refo…
Trump base totally buying into 'Spygate.' 71% think FBI put a spy into Trump's campaign, to only 13% who don't believe that.

63% of Trump voters want Mueller fired to only 18% opposed.

But overall only 30% of voters think Mueller should be fired:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/tax-refo…
Public opinion about Russia investigation basically hasn't moved at all in last year.

June 2017- 42% think there was collusion, 42% think there wasn't.
June 2018- 45% think there was collusion, 43% think there wasn't.

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/tax-refo…
June 2017- 37% think Russia story is fake news, 49% think it's not.
June 2018- 39% think Russia story is fake news, 46% think not.

June 2017- 36% think Trump should stay if there was collusion, 54% say resign
June 2018- 35% think Trump should stay if collusion, 56% say resign
The only Russia related issue where we've really seen opinions move in last yr- whether it wanted Trump or Clinton to win.

June 2017: 57% said Trump, 20% Clinton
June 2018: 51% say Trump, 32% Clinton

Trump voters say 54/18 Russia wanted Clinton to win:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/tax-refo…
Only 20% of voters think Trump has the right to pardon himself, 65% say he doesn't have the right to.

Trump voters 42/33 he's allowed to pardon himself.

Just 13% of voters think Trump SHOULD pardon himself, 69% say he shouldn't: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/tax-refo…
Trump polls at either 39% or 40% in early match ups for reelection with various Democrats.

Biden leads him 53-39, Sanders leads 49-40, Warren leads 48-40, Booker leads 47-39, Gillibrand leads 45-39, Harris leads 45-40:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/tax-refo…
Only 36% think Trump has delivered on core promise of campaign to 'Make America Great Again,' 58% say he hasn't

Similarly 36% think Trump is honest, 57% say he isn't. By 51-39 spread voters say he's a liar

Voters still want to see his tax returns, 57-35

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/tax-refo…
Sarah Huckabee Sanders said last week that she has more credibility than the media but the public disagrees, siding with the press over her 48-35.

Voters trust CNN more than Trump 53/38, NBC, ABC, and CBS more 53/39, NYT more 52/38, and WaPo more 51/38:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/tax-refo…
55% of voters want stronger gun laws, to 34% who are opposed.

86-6 support for background checks on all gun purchases.

60-29 support for an assault weapons ban.

26-56 opposition to arming teachers:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/tax-refo…
Big contrast between the image of the high school students leading gun protests who are popular (54/35 favorability) and the NRA which is not popular (39/45 favorability):

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/tax-refo…
Rudy Giuliani's stumping for Trump isn't doing much for his image. 32% of voters see him favorably, 48% unfavorably.

He's at least a little better off than Roseanne, who comes in at 25% favorable, 52% unfavorable: publicpolicypolling.com/polls/tax-refo…
Canada has a 66/13 favorability rating in the US. Clinton voters a little more positive toward it (77/7) than Trump voters (54/19).

Maybe even Trump can't make his voters hate Canada.

5% think Canada should be punished for War of 1812, 82% disagree:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/tax-refo…
There's really no debate when it comes to public opinion on who the GOAT is. 54% say Michael Jordan, only 14% LeBron James.

Support for MJ brings Americans together across party lines. 60/17 with Democrats, 51/17 w/ Republicans, 49/8 with independents:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/tax-refo…
And finally 21% say it's Yanny, 20% say it's Laurel, and 49% said they had no clue what we were talking about.

Have a nice day:

publicpolicypolling.com/polls/tax-refo…
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More from @ppppolls see all

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In line with polling released earlier this year by Gallup we find Americans wary of driverless cars: news.gallup.com/poll/228032/am…'
Our polls for @ConsumerWD find that 79% of voters in CA, FL, MI, and SD say they’re either very concerned or somewhat concerned for their safety on the road if driverless cars were operating in their area: consumerwatchdog.org/sites/default/…
79% of voters in CA, FL, MI and SD are also very concerned or somewhat concerned about the security of data collected by driverless cars: consumerwatchdog.org/sites/default/…
Read 4 tweets
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We do 30 or 40 polls a week so have tons of data to work with to assess if the political climate is really shifting.

It's not.

It's basically been the same ever since the GOP health care debacle last summer. There might occasionally be a small blip one way or the other...
But basically Dems have a 10 point advantage or so nationally and that's been the same for close to a year now. It's natural for there to be an occasional individual survey where it's 15 or 16 points or only 3 or 4 points, but there's never been a real systemic shift from ~+10
Think the massive amount of data from special elections is a lot more instructive about what's likely to happen this fall than individual generic ballot polls- and certainly that would apply to any poll from us as well as anyone else. Not a knock on CNN
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Worth noting besides Pittenger losing in NC-9...there were 10,000 more Democratic than Republican votes in the primary, another marker of Democratic enthusiasm
2 weeks ago we found that Republicans only had a 46-44 generic ballot lead in that district. Looking like an even better Democratic opportunity now without having to run against an incumbent, and with primary vote turnout confirming a Democratic edge in engagement this year
The North Carolina Congressional map was drawn to have no competitive districts, but looks like it will have several this year. We recently found Kathy Manning, who won 70% tonight in her primary in NC-13, down only 43-40 to incumbent Ted Budd
Read 4 tweets

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Who funds the IEA, the TPA, the ASI &co?
You know, the RW 'free trade' thick tanks advocating tax havens, "freedom" (no regulations like workers' rights or environmental protection), no welfare (no tax & no free healthcare).
Basically, "Only the wealthier survive" philosophy?
1/n
*Could it be* that it has something to do with defending their funders' interests?
Today, I'm going to tell you the Thick Tanks' Hydra tale.
Featuring Atlas, huge piles of money, tradition, "free speech", useful idiots and a very clear agenda that Brexit/Trump are a part of.
2/n
Take a seat: It's a long story, with a lot of players, including politicians, pretty ladies squatting your TV, the climate change denial's network, the global fascist movement, Silicon Valley/multiname data-stealing/misusing company & private companies' involved in elections.
3/n
Read 249 tweets
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1) What if @Comey was never investigating @Realdonaldtrump but we missed the clues because of our own perceptions. Each political side assumed one of them was dirty, either Trump had colluded or Comey framed him. What if they were both in the right? Working together in 2017!
@Comey @realDonaldTrump 2) What if the evidence indicates that @Comey was conducting a Counterintelligence case against senior Obama officials & Congressional leaders. As my friend @Joestradamus says, it’s like watching the 6th Sense, once you understand the plot you will notice all the other clues!
@Comey @realDonaldTrump @Joestradamus 3) What if both sides got it half wrong? What if Trump never colluded with the Russians & Comey never tried to investigate Trump for collusion? Let’s look at the facts without assuming anyone is guilty, you might be surprised how many people are wearing White Hats!
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NEWS: The federal district court in DC has just found @realDonaldTrump’s termination of #DACA unlawful. Here's what the decision means ↓ 1/
The court is ordering the #Trump administration to accept — for the first time since the #DACA rescission was announced in September — *new* applications from DACA-eligible immigrant youth, BUT NOT IMMEDIATELY. 2/
The court is giving the Trump administration 90 days to explain why they ended #DACA, which the administration has failed to do thus far. 3/
Read 6 tweets
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#New PA cong. map increases D chance of winning the House majority by 4%. They only need a 6.8% generic ballot margin now (down from 7.7) to be favored.

Diff. will be closer to 10% in Nov when uncertainty from polls is ⬇️. Redraw is a very big deal.

One major reason the new PA map is such a big gain for Democrats is that it solidifies, not just tips, PA districts in Philly burbs. Also creates one additional vulnerable R district. (Easily seen in this map made by @JMilesColeman)
My forecasting model will have new PA map in the near future. This is not just a simple switch; it’s a coding redesign, restructuring of input, & drawing new geographic files. Takes a while (for me, a student).

In the meantime, just add 3-4% to the model: bit.ly/2018_house
Read 4 tweets
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is to blame for this!!!

#Trump #TaxReform #TaxCutsandJobsAct #taxscambill @Rosie 😉

dailycaller.com/2018/01/15/164…
#AAON (heating and cooling) -- $1,000 bonus checks to 2,000 employees

@AccuWeather – year-end bonuses to all employees. (Approx. 450 – 500 employees)

@advancefinance – increase in 401(k) match; increase in profit sharing; increase in charitable donations.

#Trump @Rosie 😉
– increase 401(k) match from 50% to 100% on the first 4% of compensation plus one-time $500 contribution to every employee’s 401(k); $250 million increase in overall U.S. investment.

@AlaskaAir -- $1,000 bonuses for 22,000 employees

#Trump #taxscambill @Rosie 😉
Read 67 tweets
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Trump Hotels' website still lists Trump SoHo New York among its properties in the Our Hotels menu. Select its name though to access its page and there's a message about it being renamed

bit.ly/2EPCSy1
National politics correspondent for Newsweek, Nina Burleigh, with a fun find on a TV above the bar at the Trump Hotel DC bit.ly/2E37QRR
Two errors in the 2nd graf of Breitbart's Trump Hotel DC article:
-holdings aren't out of @realDonaldTrump's hands: trust isn't blind & he can profit from it
-Trump Org told Congress it was estimating foreign receipts—not auto donating in full
bit.ly/2CpL7z2
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Trending hashtags

#badumching #QAnon8chan #TrumpLies #firstlady #September11th #MAGA #TrumpRally #potus #WeThePeople #CogentBuildingGroup #KAG #nomuslimbanever #CORRUPTION #laurel #Trump #AAON #VoteLeaveBrokeTheLaw #POTUS #MEF #MondayMotivation #whitehousetalk2018 #breakfast #FISA #president #TrumpKimSummit

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