1/ I see lots of people speculating about Impeachment. How "close" is Mueller? Is this enough evidence? Is this crime "bad" enough? These aren't the right questions.
2/ There's no statutory standard for impeachment. It's solely up to the discretion and whims of the House, so Paul Ryan. They don't need a reason. I think there has to be a charge, can't just say "We don't like your face," but could be anything, jaywalking
3/ Think I'm kidding? These are the people who impeached Clinton over a blow job. My bad, "obstruction of justice" for lying about the blow job. 🙄
4/ It's strictly a political decision, not a legal one. Will impeachment benefit GOP? That is the sole consideration. Will the public back them up, reward them?
5/ Right now the answer is an unequivocal no. Trump's base is the GOP base. GOP can't make them mad or they'll be punished at the ballot box. What we think matters nothing to them. Less than nothing.
6/ So basically we are at their mercy as well. Until the most racist, sexist, hateful, deplorable elements of society turn against Trump, there will be no impeachment.
7/ They clearly don't care about emoluments, perjury, obstruction of justice, not even treason. They love Putin. They hate Hillary. They are totes cool with a little foreign collusion to win the election. If that's what it took to beat her, it's a good thing!
8/ I said during the campaign, they don't care if Trump is corrupt, dirty, mobbed up. They like that, they want him to use his dirty tricks to smite their common enemies.
9/ And that's exactly what he's done. He hasn't had to do anything else. Hating on the little guy, even to the point of violence, is what they want. That's all it takes to keep them devoted to him.
10/ The base loves Trump, GOP desperately needs the base. Keeping them happy is the sole basis for any decision made by Trump or GOP. If you view everything through this framework, everything makes a lot more sense.
11/ So IDK what it will take for him to lose them. Unless he all of a sudden starts being nice to black people, I can't think of anything.
12/ They wouldn't even blame him for nuclear war. As the mushroom cloud explodes right over my house, they'll find a way to blame Hillary.
13/ The situation is grim. But don't look to indictments or big reveals as harbingers of impeachment. Watch that 31%. That's who decides. /fin
Many dissenters in my mention. Look at it this way - If GOP impeaches Trump, 80% of them will lose in November. So for Paul Ryan to decide to impeach, he would have to decide it is more important than winning. And what are the chances of that?
That's why they are making a stink about "the dossier," the text messages, the secret society, FISA - they need plausible, or plausible enough, deniability. They need a justification for ignoring Mueller. Doesn't have to be a good one.
I wish I'd said 90% because of course people are quibbling 🙄
