Thread by @ThomasRoss28

THE 2018 US SENATE RACES: HOW THE DEMOS CAN WILL OR LOSE
This is a review of the 2018 Senate races. Part 1, now, will survey the basics for the races. Where each race stands now, according to leading experts on political handicapping, polling, and news reports.

Part 1 will also give basic info on the “Safe Races” – Blue (Demo) or Red (GOP).
Part 2 will examine the more difficult races: the Tossups, the Lean Demos, and the Lean GOP. (There is only one of the last.)

Part 3 (once I remove the obscenities) will consider the chances of the Democrats becoming the Senate majority in 2019. How the Democrats can best Win or Lose the election. Strategy. True Believers will hate it. Criticize away!

Of course, it’s really too early to predict top issues, scandals & approval ratings, nationally, or each state. Things change daily now, somewhere. There are 279 days to the election Nov 6. We don’t know all the candidates. The filing deadline has passed only in IL, TX & WVA.

Thus, polls are sparse & opinions speculative. Remaining filing deadlines range from 2/7 in OH to 7/10 in DE. The first party primary date is 3/6– TX- and the last 9/12 – RI. We have a long way to go. It will take until 8/2 for half the final candidates to be chosen.

(PS -I have checked all the Links. Please let me know if one does not work. It may be your O/S. Or I goofed. And Govt links go up & down. Also, I have hundreds of footnotes, available on any race upon request. In all, they would take more than 100 280 blocks.)

On government aptitude:

“Washington is a city of Southern efficiency and Northern charm.”
John F. Kennedy

If High School Civics was long ago, Senators have 6 year terms. They are divided into 3 ‘classes’. 1/3 are elected every two years (plus resignations & deaths). This year it is 34, including Sen. Franken’s replacement.

Class 1: this year: Demo 25, GOP 8, plus 1 special election= 34
Class 2: next election 2020: Demo 12, GOP 21= 33
Class 3: next election 2022: Demo 12, GOP 22= 34
1/3 of states have no Senate election each year. So, don’t fret if you don’t have one.

OUTLINE: PART 1
1. Introduction
2 A Chart of All the Races, and the Pros’ Prognostications
3. Basic Info on the GOP Seats Rated Safe
4. Basic Info on Democratic Seats Rated Safe

PART 2: THE RACES THAT WILL DECIDE THE SENATE MAJORITY
1. The Not-So-Certain Democratic Seats
2. The Shakiest Democratic Seats – the Ones We Most Need to Work on
3. The Top Three Chances for Gains –AZ, NV and TN

PART 3: STRATEGY FOR WINNING A SENATE MAJORITY:
Do You want to be Righteous - OR Win a Senate Majority?
Because you can’t do both. Ideals v. the practical. Win the battles you can.Or, as Sun Tsu said, 非利不動，非得不用，非危不戰… 將不可以慍而致戰. 合于利而動不合于利而止.

To save space on this Chart, I have created a List of all the Twitter handles of the Demo Senate candidate Twitter handles, and their campaign’s Twitter handles, if any, here. I have also added the leading Demo challengers, for GOP seats.

2. CHART OF THE 2018 SENATE RACES:
Rated by Cook’s, Inside Elections, Sabato, NYT (all Dec-Jan)
SAFE DEMOS 2012 Race Rating
CA Dianne Feinstein 63% D4 Safes
CN Chris Murphy 55% D4 Safes
DE Tom Carper 66% D4 Safes
HI Mazie Hirono 63% D4 Safes

MD Ben Cardin 55% D4 Safes
MA Elizabeth Warren 54% D4 Safes
MN Amy Klobuchar 65% D4 Safes
NM Martin Heinrich 51% D4 Safes
NY Kirsten Gellibrand 72% D4 Safes
RI Sheldon Whitehouse 64%D4 Safes
VA Tim Kaine 53% DSafe, Safe, Likely D, Safe

VT Bernie Sanders (I) 71% I4 Safes
WA Maria Cantrell 61% D4 Safes
Total Safe: 13
LIKELY DEMO SEATS:
ME Angus King (I) 53% Lean D/I, Safe, Likely D/I, Likely D/I
MI Debbie Stabenow 59% DLikely D, Safe, Likely D, Safe
MT Jon Tester 49% DLikely D, Tilt D, Lean D, Lean D

NJ Bob Melendez 59% DLikely D, Safe, Likely D, Safe
PA Bob Casey Jr. 54% DLikely D, Lean D, Likely D, Likely D
WI Tammy Baldwin 51% DLikely D, Tilt D, Lean D, Lean D
Total Likely: 6

SHAKY DEMOCRATIC SEATS (ordered best chances to least):
MN Tina Smith 53% DTossup, Likely D, Lean D, Lean D
OH Sherrod Brown 51% D4 Lean D
ND Heidi Heitkamp 50% DLean D, Tossup, Lean D, Lean D
FL Bill Nelson 55% DLean D, Tilt D, Tossup, Lean D

WV Joe Minchin 61% DTossup, Tossup, Lean D, Tossup
IN Joe Donnelly 50% D4 Tossups
MO Claire McCaskill 55% D4 Tossups
Total Shaky 7
Total Demos running for reelection: 26
Note – As of Dec 13, New York magazine also rates these same 7 races as ”Tossup”.

SHAKY GOP SEATS
NV Dean Heller 46% R4 Tossups
AZ Flake (retiring) 49% R4 Tossups
Total Shaky GOP: 2

LIKELY GOP SEATS
TN Bob Corker (Ret.) 65% RTossup, Likely R, Likely R,Lean R
Total GOP Likely: 1

GOP CONSIDERED SAFE:
MS Roger Wicker 57% R4 Safes
NB Deb Fischer 56% R4 Safes
TX Ted Cruz 57% RSafe R, Safe R, Likely R, Safe R
UT Hatch (reti) 65% R4 Safes
WY John Barrasso 76% R4 Safes
Total GOP Safe 5
Total GOP seats: 8
Total Senate races: 34

Note the enormous disparity: 26 v 8. I’ll discuss how that occurred later. That’s our biggest problem: we defend 26, the only GOP 8. Notice also that only 3 GOP seats are insecure. Both are key to any successful strategy to win the majority.

3. A BRIEF LOOK AT DEMOS RUNNING AGAINST SAFE GOP - Miss, Neb, TX, UT, WY

MISSISSIPPI Roger Wicker (R) Incumbent Filing deadline 3/1, Primary 6/5. Pro-Trump Wicker got 57% in 2012. He is backed by the Washington establishment, like McConnell.

Miss has had no Demo senator since 1990. Jones has just won in neighbor AL. Miss has a higher black population, but is less urban.
The only declared candidate is Demo political novice, Jensen Bohren.
No declared GOP opposing candidate.

Mostly likely challenger is state senator Chris McDaniel, a Pro-Trump Tea Bagger, backed by Bannon. In 3023 he almost beat the other GOP Senator in a nasty battle. GOP encourages Demos to primary GOP. McDaniel accused that Senator, Thad Cochran, of infidelity.

Seven term Thad Cochran is 80-year-old, and in bad health, physically & otherwise. If Cochran resigns, we may see another two-senator race. (Minn has one too. AZ may be a third.) Therefore, Chris McDaniel may be tempted to await Cochran’s status.

Fun fact: as Utah’s Hatch is not running for reelection, Cochran would become President Pro Temp of the Senate. It is mostly an honorary title, except that if the Prez, VP & Speaker go to jail, Cochran would be Prez.

NEBRASKA Deb Fischer (R) Incumbent - Filing deadline 3/12, Primary 5/15.
Fisher got 56% in 2012. Endorsed by the GOP Gov and most of the other top state GOP brass.
2 relatively unknown declared GOP opponents. Brannon is shopping for a stronger one.

2 Demo candidates. Professor Larry Marvin is little known.
Lincoln City Councilwoman Jane Raybould is endorsed by former Demo senator Ben Nelson. Early polling shows Fisher beating her. janeraybould.com @JaneRaybould

TEXAS Ted Cruz (R).- Filing date past. Primary 3/6. Filing date past. 6 other GOP, relatively unknown. None likely to serious challenge him. Democrats: 3 declared candidates, 2 relatively unknown. I will discuss 3-term US Rep. Beto O'Rourke below.

Of these 5 ‘Safe’ GOP seats, this is one with the best chance for us to win. So I will spend more time on it. The chances are not high, though polls show O’Rourke within striking range - 45/37%. Also,of all Senators running, this is the one I’d like to see defeated the most.

Despite large urban areas, major schools, large corporate headquarters and a large Latino population (which voted for Cruz), Texas remains apart - conservative, anti-Washington, and anti-‘elitist’. The irony is that Cruz is a Princeton & Harvard Law graduate, born in Canada.

Cruz is first term. He won in 2012, for an open seat, first in the primary against long-time conservative GOP Lt Gov, a major upset & Tea Bag victory. Then, in the general election by 56%. He is one of few arch-conservatives to win a large portion of Latino votes.

As an attorney, & SG of TX, Cruz aided the NRA, helped impeach Prez Clinton & helped Bush 2 become president (Bush v Gore). He defended ‘religious liberty’, gerrymandering, the death penalty & drug company overcharges. In short, he is an excellent lawyer & a horrible person.

As Senator, he strongly opposed the environment, Dreamers, ACA, choice, LGBT rights, immigrants, net neutrality, minimum wage, campaign finance reform & the Two-State solution. He opposed Obama’s appointment to replace Justice Scalia, and blamed him for rising terrorism.

He favors the NRA, school choice, the death penalty, government surveillance & trickled-down economics. He helped to shut down the Govt in 2013, and wants to abolish the IRS & 4 Govt depts. On the other hand, he did read “Green Eggs and Ham” to C-Span (during a filibuster).

Running for Prez in 2016, Trump threatened to “spill the beans” of Cruz’ wife, accused his father of being involved in JFK assassination, & said it was a disgrace for Cruz to use Evangelical support (before Trump did it himself). Despite this, “Lyin’ Ted” has become pro-Trump.

Fortunately, he has little influence. Between tirades and a lack of humor, he is intensely disliked by other GOP Senators. (McCain: “wacko bird”, Boeher: “Lucifer”, McConnell: “incendiary”; Graham: no one would convict his murderer. Mike Lee is a rare friend.

The only positive things I can say for Cruz is that he is against mandatory prison sentences, and in favor of free trade. And that, if he were not in the Senate, he might be on the Supreme Court.

Cruz is backed by the TX Gov and the other TX Senator. Money comes from Mercers and the Tea Party’s Senate Conservatives Fund.

His main Demo opponent is US Rep Beto O'Rourke @betoorourke betofortexas.com
crowdpac.com/candidates/449…

O'Rourke is anti-PAC, anti-gerrymandering, pro-LBGT, pro-ACA, public health option, expanded Medicaid, pro-Dreamer, pro-citizenship for immigrant Vets, anti-monopoly & pro-consumer.

O'Rourke is endorsed by Demo Senators in other states, Lawrence Lessig, End Citizens United, J Street (Two-State Solution), League of Conservation Voters & the Progressive Change Campaign Committee. He has been out-raising Cruz in money, but will need a fortunate to win Texas.

Sema Hernandez is another Demo candidate. She appears far more liberal. But denies the Russian interference. believes in HRC conspiracy theories & in Russian propaganda, per a detailed thread from@TexanTruth42 Now her old Twitter account has vanished. She is now at @ElectSema4TX

UTAH (open seat) – Orrin Hatch (R) retiring. Filing deadline 3/12, Primary 6/26 Closed Demo,
GOP Convention 4/21, if no one wins 60%, the n they have a Closed GOP Primary 6/26
There are only two announced GOP candidates, neither well known, and 2 Demo candidates, below.

Hatch, in office for 7 terms (and thus senior GOP member of the Senate, reportedly due to very low approval ratings. Also in his first election in 1976, he criticized the incumbent’s 18 years in office. Yes, he’s been in office 42 years.

All Utah’s top officials are GOP. So why no major declared GOP candidates? Potential candidates include 2008 & 2012 Prez candidate Mitt Romney, 2012 Prez candidate Jon Huntsman, former Gov Mike Leavitt, several GOP Rep’s & Evan McMullin, 2016 Independent Prez candidate.

Hatch only made his official announcement on Jan 2, 2018, but he had been speculating since last March, and told many political allies in Oct. Romney has been discussing the race with his close allies. On Jan 2, BTW, he changed his Twitter location from Mass to Utah.

Romney was a never-Trump-er, & is very critical of his racism. So he’s the last person in the GOP, that the Trump would want in the Senate. Trump reportedly urged Hatch to stay. Before he resigned, Gorka was attacking Romney as a RINO, an establishment elite & anti-MAGA.

Bannon too has been investigating candidates, and funding for them. Perhaps that could be Romney, though Romney would not be the isolationist views, and the two exchanged nasty words over Roy Moore.

Huntsman and McMullin have declined to run. The Salt Lake Tribune, owned by the Huntsman family – wrote an editorial in Oct: , “Mitt Romney should be a savior for Republicans and run for Senate.” McMullin wished Romney well on Twitter.

To what does all this add up? The smart money is on Romney. I think they are wrong. Why have I spent so much time reviewing all this, when the next senator from the Utah will be GOP? I believe that the 2020 Prez GOP race is being positioned, now, in Utah. Any betters out there?

Two announced Demo candidates:
Jenny Wilson - wilsonforsenate.com @JennyWilsonUT
crowdpac.com/candidates/58d…
SLC Councilwoman, has worked for 2 Demo Reps (1 as chief of staff), lots of top level service work, MPA, Harvard.

Pro-environment, ethics, including ethics reform, government efficiency, criminal justice reform, wants bipartisanship, pro-DACA and path to citizenship, pro- opioid treatment.

Mitchell Vice votevice.com @mitchellvice businessman

WYOMING Dr. John Barrasso (R)Filing deadline 6/6, Closed Primary 8/21
The only declared GOP candidate is incumbent Barrasso, appointed in 2007, reelected 2008 % 2012, w/ 73% & 76% of the vote. So he won’t likely be beaten by a Demo.

Supported by McConnell, well-funded by the oil & gas industry, PAC’s. Tends to vote straight GOP. Was pro-Trump in election. Anti-LGBT,, choice, ACA, environment, limited govt., pro-NRA.

Bannon is pushing Erik Prince, founder of military contractor Blackwater, to run against Senator Barrasso, with Mercer money. But, Bannon’s influence has waned.

He was on the Trump transitional team, and is brother of Education Eradicator Betsy DeVos. He plans to replace far more US soldier in foreign wars was opposed by Mattis & McMaster. His politics are unclear (except for profit), but he supported Pat Buchannon years ago.

The only declared Demo challenger is Gary Trauner, traunerforwy.com
@TraunerforWY CFO, businessman, local boards, ran for WY’s one statewide House seat twice.

Sustainable energy, healthcare for all, widening inequality , net neutrality, anti-big Money, security, cyber security (Russia), protecting SS & other safety net, tax the rich, protect Vets.
The last WY House or Senate Demo was in 1978. Endorsed by DUH! (Healthcare).

4. BASIC INFO ON THE SAFE DEMOCRATIC SEATS
I will not list details on Demo safe seats. Here simply are their campaign websites, crowdsource sites, primary dates, & campaign Twitter address. They are CA, Conn, DE, HI, Mary, Mass, Minn, New Mex, NY, RI, VA, VT & Wash.

CALIFORNIA - Dianne Feinstein – @DianneFeinstein @SenFeinstein
crowdpac.com/candidates/161…
June 5 Primary

CONNECTICUT – Chris Murphy @ChrisMurphyCT
chrismurphy.com
crowdpac.com/candidates/972…
Aug. 14 Closed primary

DELAWARE - Tom Carper @TomCarperforDE @SenatorCarper
carperfordelaware.com
crowdpac.com/candidates/601…
Sept. 6 Closed Primary

MARYLAND - Ben Cardin @BenCardinforMD @SenatorCardin
bencardin.com
crowdpac.com/candidates/721…
June 26 Closed Primary

HAWAII - Mazie Hirono @mazieforhawaii @maziehirono
mazieforhawaii.com
crowdpac.com/candidates/978…
Aug. 11 Primary

MASSACHUSETTS- Elizabeth Warren @elizabethforma @SenWarren
elizabethwarren.com/blog/2018
crowdpac.com/candidates/104…
Sept. 4 Primary

MINNESOTA - Amy Klobuchar @amyklobuchar
amyklobuchar.com
crowdpac.com/candidates/158…
Aug. 14 Primary

NEW MEXICO Martin Heinrich @Heinrich4NM @MartinHeinrich
martinheinrich.com
crowdpac.com/candidates/105…
June 5 Primary

NEW YORK Kirsten Gillibrand @kgillibrand2016 @SenGillibrand
kirstengillibrand.com
crowdpac.com/candidates/999…
June 26 Closed Primary

RHODE ISLAND Sheldon Whitehouse @SheldonforRI @SenWhitehouse
whitehouseforsenate.com
crowdpac.com/candidates/158…
Sept. 12 Primary

VIRGINIA Tim Kaine @timkaine
timkaine.com
crowdpac.com/candidates/105…
June 12 Primary

VERMONT Bernie Sanders (I) @BernieSanders @SenSanders
berniesanders.com/?nosplash=true…
crowdpac.com/candidates/123…
Aug. 14 Primary – but not for Independents

WASHINGTON (State) Maria Cantwell @MariaCantwell
cantwell.senate.gov @SenatorCantwell
crowdpac.com/candidates/156…
Aug. 7 Primary

Again, Part 2 will give detaled information on the Shaky and Leaning Races, which are ours to Win or Lose.

Part 3 will discuss what it will take to win the Senate Majority in these elections.

Your Vocabulary homework:
Kakistocracy – Govt by the worst & least qualified.
Kleptocracy - Govt by thieves.
Machiavellian – Sly & scheming politics without the slightest morals, scruples, integrity or honor.
Pedophocracy – Govt by child molesters.
Plutocracy – Govt by the rich.

I will finish Part 1 with the immortal words of Imelda Marcos.)

“Win or lose, we go shopping after the election.”

unroll