A useful background source for this Times story is Amber Rudd's letter to the Migration Advisory Committee (July 2017), which is the fullest public description of govt thinking on Brexit to date gov.uk/government/pub…
"We do not envisage moving to that new system in a single step", wrote Rudd, giving a range of political (negotiations, transition), economic (time to plan) and practical/logistical (grace period for 3m, new systems) reasons why it made sense to have 3 phases
Times reports No 10 has now over-ruled Rudd & HO. But appears to propose an impossible policy on 3 fronts. (i) v.likely not negotiable with the EU. (ii) contradicts govt's core messages to business about transition (iii) practically, v.difficult to legislate & implement in time.
Here is the letter from @DExEUgov @hmtreasury @beisgovuk telling business that govt policy of registration will not change the rights of EU nationals to come & work in UK during the transition phase
If the government did want a new system up and running before Brexit in Spring 2019, it would need to reverse last week's decision to delay the Immigration White Paper by a year, initially due in Autumn/year end 2017 to now due Autumn 2018.
Neat little 40 second online video from @DExEUgov explains why the govt wants a transition under current rules to provide "certainty" to business by March The uncertainty is whether no 10 now opposes what govt is saying on migration during transition
Times report captures one underappreciated Whitehall shift. Instead of 2010-16 Home Office vs Treasury/BIS, here the (New) Home Office (Rudd) had a sensible reform timetable (aligned to Treasury & BEIS) but No 10 - aka the (Old) Home Office (May) - finds old habits hard to kick
The new @CommonsHomeAffs report on Wednesday - 'Home Office delivery of Brexit: immigration' - sounds quite timely on the practicalities of implementing a new post-Brexit immigration system
Rebuilding (very low) public trust & confidence in govt's ability to manage immigration competently should be a key objective of policy, as @CommonsHomeAffs last report argued, drawing on @Nationalconvers ... Impossible promises that can't be delivered corrode trust & confidence
It is govt policy to have a two year "grace period", during which EU nationals in UK pre-Brexit day don't need to have done anything to document their status until 2021 (because registering 3m+ for settled status can't happen overnight). While new arrivals are asked to register.
Catch-22: Its not possible to introduce new rules/system (with any enforcement) alongside this grace period. Unless gvt wants to require 3m+ who do not need to have yet documented their status to have documented their eligibility for the grace period (of not needing to do that)!
To not be a shambles, new rules in 2019 would depend on advising employers & landlords how to tell difference between a Spanish national who (a) arrived in 2017 or (b) after March 2019. While HO does *not* want group (a) to all try to document their status all at once by/in 2019.
Fortunately, there is a solution. By backing down (next month), govt could return to a policy which (i) means they can secure transition deal they want/need (ii) sticks to what they have been telling business will happen (iii) makes it possible to design a new system for 2021
