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Kyle @HNIJohnMiller
, 24 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
1) Manafort, Gates, and Podesta. What's happening there? Allow me to explain.
2) Manafort and Gates are indicted, and Gates has plead guilty to conspiracy for, unregistered foreign lobbying, bank fraud and money laundering.
3) "But what about Tony Podesta? The Podesta group? The Podesta brothers?!"
4) First, game theory. There was a British television show about game theory. Two people would be offered some big sum of money, lets say $30,000,000 in lobbying money.
5) And lets change the players to two groups of lobbying firms.
6) The game was, they each had a buzzer, if one and not the other pressed the buzzer that person would get the money, if neither did they would split the money, if both did neither got the money.
7) The optimal strategy, then, was to press the buzzer, as if the other person did and you didn't you'd miss out on the money. Good old fashioned human greed. The prisoner's dilemma.
8) One person destroyed that show. He said, "I'm going to press my buzzer. If you do not, I will split the money with you after the show. If you do, neither of us get anything. The only way for either of us to get money is for you to not press the buzzer, because I will."
9) Two teams of lobbyists on opposites sides of a campaign. One team led by the firm Gates Manafort, the other led by The Podesta Group
Sorry, Davis Manafort* that's important.
10) They each get high ranking positions managing the respective campaigns, and there's an agreement. If one wins, they will sell access to the new administration to the other team of lobbyists.
11) Hundreds of millions of dollars on the line, and they agree to split it. One side gets placed inside the new administration and sells influence to the other side that markets itself on those connections.
12) This is 2008. Rick Davis, of Davis Manafort that Gates and Manafort and Rick Davis are part of, are on McCain's side. Tony and John Podesta are in tight with the Clintons.
13) Clinton still lost but got the Secretary of State position out of the deal once McCain was beaten by Obama. The Podesta sold access to the Clinton State Department to Davis Manafort.
14) As the indictments state, Davis Manafort (Gates and Podesta) was working with the Podesta Group doing Ukrainian lobbying while Clinton was Secretary of State. They split the money in their little prisoners dilemma. Pay for play, the most obvious kind of corruption.
15) Fast forward to 2016. Second verse, same as the first, except this time it was Manafort on the Republican side, and John Podesta managing the Democrat side. This time, they've got the scheme down pat. Both managing for free the campaigns, no screw ups.
16) Whoever wins gets an even MORE DIRECT connection to the new administration, and they'll both make bank.
17) Then some idiot fucking partisan Democrat who wasn't in on the scheme gets a story in the NYT about Manafort lobbying for Ukraine, in an attempt to trip up Trump, and Trump fires Manafort and benches Gates as a result.
18) Then Trump SOMEHOW wins, he's not letting in any of the lobbyist cartel to his administration, and suddenly the entire fucking lobbyist cartel is up shit creek without a paddle.
19) Idiot partisan Dems decide to take Trump down because Hillary is leading them in a goddamn tantrum parade, and they demand a special counsel. They get Mueller.
20) The lobbyists breathe a sigh of relief. Mueller will get Trump on something he can be impeached for, right? ... right?
21) Then the first indictments come. The Podesta Group folds overnight with Tony running scared. Months later Gates cracks. Prisoners dilemma doesn't work nearly as well when losing means prison yime.
22) Manafort and Gates lobbying worked BECAUSE of the Podesta Group. The next step in the indictments is for Manafort to either be found guilty or to flip on Tony Podesta, because he and John Podesta were selling access to Hillary's State Department.
23) And you can be DAMN SURE the Clinton Foundation was getting a cut of that. Hell, it was already proven she was. Patience. Breathe easy. We've already won, this is just cleanup right now. /end
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