On #Skripal: We don't really know what was done, let alone whether the Kremlin did it. But the fact that all eyes immediately turned towards Moscow - and few will believe official denials - is a problem the Kremlin will eventually need to solve. /1
Expect the Russian MFA and state TV to call emerging #Skripal accusations "knee-jerk Russophobia". And there's some truth to that: British society, as many, have learned to fear Kremlin intentions and capabilities. /2
In Western responses to Russia there is much hyperbole, and it is rapidly making everything Russia-linked seem as toxic as whatever poisoned #Skripal. In a sense, Russophobia is becoming a reality. But the cure to the syndrome lies in Moscow. /3
London is packed to the gills with Russian music, art, literature, science, business and migrants. My own classrooms are full of open-minded people who want to learn. There is no overarching antipathy to Russia or Russians. But there is inherent mistrust of the Russian state. /4
For the moment, this feeds nicely into Putin's reelection campaign. But after 18 March, mistrust will weigh increasingly heavily on Russia's ability to fund investment and even maintain its security. And that, fundamentally, is Moscow's problem, not London's. /END
