I don't know who Paul Whelan is, and that's a good thing. /1
To recap: Russian authorities have arrested an American citizen, evidently in the midst of an act of espionage. That's all we know at the moment. /2 cbsnews.com/news/paul-whel…
The name doesn't seem to mean much to Russia-focused journos, academics or think tank analysts, though we're only an hour or so into the story. /3
Some have speculated it might be the hotel manager quoted in this story. /4 sputniknews.com/sport/20171127…
Or maybe this academic? /5 cbs.dk/en/research/de…
Whoever he is, I feel sorry for him. Even if he's guilty. What he's about to go through (or already going through) won't be fun, and it won't be particularly fair. (And I'm on the record saying that I don't think Butina's being treated fairly either, so don't troll me.) /6
But the fact that we don't know who he is might be good news. If Russia had wanted to make a big point -- as most are speculating -- they were any number of higher-profile targets they could have gone after. People whose arrest would really have sent a message. /7
I suppose it's possible that Whelan is in fact a high-value American asset, and the people in Langley who need to get the message will get it. If that's the case, we'll likely never know. /8
But at first blush this doesn't feel like it's all about grabbing someone to put the pressure on re: Butina - or perhaps to engineer a trade. /9
First, given Moscow's traditional insistence on parity, a trade would suggest comparability between the alleged crimes. Butina is not accused of espionage, and arranging a trade for an accused spy would be tantamount to an admission that she was working for the Russian state. /10
If Russia wanted to go for a trade, they would be more likely to charge someone with violating the various laws against foreign influence - ie, something commensurate to FARA (and there are plenty of options, although admittedly most target Russian citizens, not foreigners). /11
Moreover, if Russia wanted to do this for PR purposes, they would not have done it on New Year's Eve, when no one in the country (or most other countries) will be paying attention. /12
From where I sit (the 8th floor of an apartment building at Rechnoy Vokzal, just in case someone's looking for me), it looks and feels like a fairly run-of-the-mill case of the FSB finding, pursuing and arresting a target. There may be no ulterior motive. /13
That said, the key thing to watch now is how Washington reacts. Unless instructed to do otherwise, State will go to bat for him (as they always do), and the CIA will refuse to comment (as they always do). Official DC will deny that Whelan's a spy, even if he is. /14
But this is not your typical administration. Will Trump push back hard, as previous presidents have? Or will he sing his usual song when it comes to Russia, about the Kremlin having us dead to rights, and throw Whelan under the bus? /15
If Whelan's innocent and his president doesn't support him, that's an unmitigated travesty. But if he's guilty and the president doesn't do whatever he can to help an agent caught in the line of duty, that's arguably no less of a travesty. /16
In short, I don't expect this case to tell us much about Russia, but it might tell us quite a bit about the Trump Administration.
Happy New Year! /END
Happy New Year! /END
UPD: New hot take -- Kremlin to propose exchanging Paul Whelan for Trump.
